ACUS11 KWNS 160353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160353=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-160600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0733
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...eastern Nebraska into central and northeast Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205...

Valid 160353Z - 160600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 205
continues.

SUMMARY...Through 05:00 UTC (12:00 AM CDT), the greatest threat for
strong to severe wind gusts (up to 70 mph) will exist east of I-35
in northeast Iowa.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in mosaic radar data indicate an evolving
QLCS extending from a bookend vortex and adjacent, small-scale bow
nearing the MS River in far northeast IA south-southwest to a couple
of additional bowing structures near Oelwein and west of Waterloo.
The greatest damaging wind potential (gusts up to 70 mph possible)
will exist with those structures as they continue east at 35-40 kt,
and eventually move into the recently issued Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 207.

Elsewhere, more sporadic occurrences of marginally severe hail
and/or locally strong wind gusts will be possible along the cold
front from near Omaha northeast to south and southeast of Fort
Dodge. Surface observations indicate a pocket of drier air in place
across western IA, which is an artifact from earlier convection. The
drier air coupled with a gradually cooling boundary-layer are
expected to limit overall storm intensity across the western half of
the watch area.

..Mead.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bhQ1K9FaZy9Nxe9Voj94HsKLNPy6ZkHobUoNh8_tfoJDXhhe0rCCgfveLmDgtPv2CpAqNvtg= SVboKXyA3N-Uhba1ro$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 40299727 41079718 41649657 42199550 42459501 42609429
43039337 43429260 43459168 43129129 42809132 42659206
42279226 41719238 41269250 40989257 40629479 40299727=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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