ACUS11 KWNS 160208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160207=20
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0732
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...northeast Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far
northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160207Z - 160400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential is expected to increase in the
03-05z timeframe from west-to-east across the discussion area. An
additional downstream watch will likely be required prior to 03:00
UTC (10 PM CDT).

DISCUSSION...A couple supercell clusters are ongoing as of 02:00 UTC
(9 PM CDT) from north of Fort Dodge to near Charles City in northern
IA, with a general eastward motion of 20-25 kt. Latest
convection-allowing model guidance suggests that the ongoing storms
will grow upscale into a bowing MCS over the next 1-3 hours as
moist, unstable inflow is enhanced by a nocturnally strengthening
low-level jet. The current east-northeast to west-southwest
orientation of the broader convective band is currently aligned
largely parallel to the deep-layer shear vector. The previously
mentioned model data suggest the bowing complex will assume more of
a north to south orientation, which would favor the evolution of a
rear-inflow jet and organized cold pool. That scenario would support
the potential for a corridor of scattered, strong to severe wind
gusts from northeast IA into southern WI and potentially far
northern IL. The wind potential may tend to be more sporadic with
eastward extent as the convective system moves into a progressively
more stable environment.

..Mead/Smith.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9HrgGNjeZjbWFiyu5i-KIqAXH5tjqM_bJO53uPPx5QqFLpy8KxybDhzp09smZHSoChoqCtkKr= gz-9pta00UlxzdgXrE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 42479308 42959308 43439267 43589211 43879063 43978859
43508798 42998800 42488811 41848972 41739109 41779203
41759207 41909259 42479308=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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