ACUS11 KWNS 160005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160005=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0729
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 160005Z - 160100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may occur with an approaching line of
storms over the next few hours, before stabilization limits
thunderstorm intensity.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms, with a history of producing
severe gusts and blowing dust with zero visibility, have recently
organized into an MCS across the TX Rolling Plains into southwestern
OK. Preceding this line of storms, a well-mixed boundary layer
remains in place, with 30+ F T/Td spreads contributing to well over
1500 J/kg DCAPE. Given an intensifying LLJ atop the well-mixed
boundary layer, and ample remaining evaporative cooling potential,
an organized cluster of severe gusts is not out of the question.
Should storms continue to intensify within the aforementioned MCS, a
WW issuance may be needed.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/16/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5pG-5wHKJquUequC9afou6u2v4nm-LdLPuUob5CJlgOgcyp5mGnLQLcD4agngvjH-v-3ITEzX= UEori0JJqJBSL742Jc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32620005 33649977 34399963 34739916 34779858 34649822
34349801 33699812 33069849 32659880 32459907 32419955
32620005=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)