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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0728

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 15, 2026 23:21:54
    ACUS11 KWNS 152321
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152321=20
    OKZ000-160015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0621 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

    Areas affected...portions of western into central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152321Z - 160015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe gusts may occur with the stronger storms that
    manage to intensify and sustain themselves. A WW issuance may be
    necessary if larger scale storm organization is realized.

    DISCUSSION...Low-topped, high-based convection continues to
    gradually deepen across western OK, where a 50+ kt convective gust
    has been reported, in addition to lightning flashes (per the latest
    NLDN lightning data). These storms are developing near the dryline,
    where surface dewpoint are in the upper 40s to low 50s F. However,
    within 50 statute miles downstream of this low-topped convection,
    surface dewpoints increase markedly into the low 60s F, yielding
    over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Nonetheless, current mesoanalysis depicts
    substantial MLCINH also in place. Trends in convective coverage and
    intensity thus remain uncertain. If an appreciable uptick in
    convective intensity does materialize, a WW issuance may be needed
    to account for the possibility of an organized severe gust threat.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6x-6HafOGKFbV4cbDELKqbaqxR2OAon4oxJP7DyPViSrKsCArPEzfKDI4SoaIIitXMza7T1la= qOmT2AkWkr6vWtiZOo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35279993 36009981 36559932 36749878 36699825 36319787
    35499782 34979795 34709827 34589867 34569927 34629965
    34739988 35279993=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)