ACUS11 KWNS 152301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152301=20
TXZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of western Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204...

Valid 152301Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 204
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts will remain a concern through the afternoon
and evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of high-based thunderstorms, with a history of
isolated measured severe (50+ kt) convective gusts, continues to
progress eastward across western TX, amid a deeply mixed, unstable
boundary layer. Congealing outflows have been noted via KLBB
reflectivity data across the TX Panhandle, where blowing dust with
zero visibility have also been reported. Scattered high-based cells
will continue to develop along this outflow, and with more robust CU
closer to the TX Rolling Plains over the next couple of hours. As
long as the deep and mixed boundary layer remains in place, any of
the stronger storm cores in this environment may support erratic
strong to severe gusts.

..Squitieri.. 05/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mDyo-Fp82XoozPtyaHYu6eE_dYDCJKC95daUeFdL4AxjN2pJVlBCWxYBdiYVAH8WSuZi673k= WoLOk9OXLfTVNJUemI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 30460305 34240296 34600265 34690163 34530070 34140039
33410034 32050060 31040089 30490149 30200206 30230265
30460305=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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