ACUS11 KWNS 152242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152241=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-160045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...western and central Wisconsin into the western UP
of Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152241Z - 160045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and/or strong to severe wind
gusts is expected to increase this evening. Greatest storm coverage
and attendant severe-weather risk is expected across southwest
Wisconsin, with decreasing severe-weather potential with
northeastward extent into the western UP of Michigan. Convective
trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

DISCUSSION...Early-evening visible satellite shows a growing cumulus
field from west-central into north-central WI, ahead of a weak cold
front moving into the northwest part of the state. The
boundary-layer remains relatively dry with dewpoints largely in the
40s. However, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates is
resulting in a marginally unstable air mass across west-central into
southwest WI with MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.=20

Latest short-term model guidance is suggestive that isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms may emerge from the deepening cumulus
field west through north of La Crosse within the next hour or two
with additional, more isolated storm development possible across the
WI North Woods into the western UP of MI, along and ahead of the
front. Despite the loss of diurnal insolation, increasing
boundary-layer moisture content along a strengthening low-level jet
is expected to support additional air mass destabilization this
evening amid a kinematic environment featuring vertically veering
wind profiles with strengthening deep-layer shear with northward
extent across the discussion area. As such, the potential exists for
some storm organization with an associated risk for large hail
and/or locally strong to severe wind gusts. Convective trends are
being monitored for a possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

..Mead/Smith.. 05/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!97VBkEPvDR4khbtb7LiVbo8Ogn1y_Npzn36-SG7JCzXx9l1KYLXLG3hsHciWXmZl4Yw9UtT3B= G0p6DjGi62DGFyC5uo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44709199 45809138 46319017 46428936 46508838 46098790
45298848 42948944 42669002 42759077 43659102 44159158
44709199=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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