ACUS11 KWNS 151921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151920=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0723
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Areas affected...far eastern NM into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151920Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected over the
next few hours. Strong to severe wind gusts are possible through the
evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed across southeast
NM this afternoon while deepening cumulus continue to develop
eastward into the TX South Plains vicinity as a weak upper shortwave
trough ejects across the southern Rockies. A hot, dry and deeply
mixed boundary layer is evident behind the dryline where
temperatures are well into the 90s and dewpoints are in the 20s and
30s. High-based convection developing within this airmass will pose
a risk of strong wind gusts. With time and eastward extent toward
western North TX, convection may increase in intensity as it emerges
into somewhat increased low-level moisture east of the dryline where
dewpoints are in the 40s and 50s and modest destabilization is
occurring closer to the dryline. Convective trends are being
monitored and a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed at some
point this afternoon, though timing is a bit uncertain.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dbg9uDboi53uR0zB6_KSn--rFpU-9uM-xMkjtF7qv17RQc8kLuhWHwCgxBgX_ISOwkDUJQDd= 4n9BTW_ztuMFKk3FqU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34630364 34920295 35130093 34930027 34629986 34289965
33899953 33449952 32839971 32380004 32090068 32060148
32130257 32580317 33090361 33680401 34000399 34630364=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)