ACUS11 KWNS 150005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150004=20
KSZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150004Z - 150100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the
stronger storms. A short-duration tornado threat may also exist with
supercells this evening. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway across portions of north-central KS, which is under the terminus of an intensifying
low-level jet. These storms are developing atop a slightly capped,
but unstable airmass, characterized by 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per 23Z mesoanalysis). 30+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb flow, beneath
strong westerly mid-level winds, is contributing to sizeable, curved
low-level hodographs, shown by the TWX VAD, with 200-400 m2/s2
effective SRH evident via the 23Z mesoanalysis. If storms can mature
and become sustained, supercell structures are likely, accompanied
by a severe wind/hail threat. If storms can root into the boundary
layer, before MLCINH dominates later this evening, a tornadic
supercell cannot be ruled out, along with an instance or two of 2+
inch diameter hail.=20

Some uncertainty remains regarding how widespread convective
coverage will be given lingering MLCINH. Nonetheless, given the
potential for supercell initiation within an otherwise favorable
environment for significant severe, a conditions are being closely
monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 05/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_wuqoJu67ae-zcfCqKn3m3yrgPbz5A8H9EaKoL6nYIpolShi7NXcmm3u-HpRzfUUNzLIWMzJ2= R9UJdB4HOXaYdG-dlA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38969809 39259788 39559723 39699674 39729631 39679588
39519549 39279523 38999512 38769523 38629543 38519586
38519636 38479712 38539752 38649795 38969809=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)