ACUS11 KWNS 142153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142152=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-142315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Areas affected...Far southeast New Mexico into the Texas Permian
Basin and Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142152Z - 142315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible through the remainder of this afternoon into evening. The
areal coverage of any severe weather is expected to be too limited
to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and mosaic radar data indicate a
gradual uptick in moist convection across the Trans-Pecos region of
southwest TX. Despite the presence of considerable mid/high-level
cloudiness, temperatures have warmed into the 90s with RAP-derived
forecast soundings indicating a 3-4-km deep, well-mixed boundary
layer. A moist plume atop of the boundary-layer is yielding MUCAPE
of 250-500 J/kg in the area of active convection, with objective
analysis suggesting values as high as 1000 J/kg farther to the east
across the Permian Basin.

Current water vapor imagery suggests slight ridging aloft across the
discussion area, indicative of negligible forcing for ascent. As
such, overall thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain somewhat
limited into this evening. Nonetheless, a subset of the current
convection is expected to intensify while spreading into portions of
the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau region where comparatively
greater instability resides. The primary hazard will be locally
strong to severe wind gusts, owing to the strong
evaporational-cooling potential within the sub-cloud layer.

..Mead/Smith.. 05/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5rynoClY7TNFzhUCnuySyBQO0nVgZVV1JtWzMczsRtWxuXbS2KT3c4MXwNs6CUbPmmW8EVcB1= -DDd52HYTkPmXztVeo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30760384 31440387 32300350 32730289 32700235 32270146
31840125 31120122 30560128 30250152 30130205 30110259
30160285 30400335 30760384=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)