ACUS11 KWNS 142040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142039=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-142245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142039Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may bring a risk for strong to
severe wind gusts this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not
expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Increasing mid-level ascent ahead of an approaching
subtle, mid-level shortwave trough and continued surface heating are contributing to weak buoyancy of 250 to locally 500 J/kg MLCAPE
across portions of the central High/Great Plains. This is supporting
the development of isolated, high-based thunderstorms along a
surface cold front across portions of northeastern Colorado.
Expectation is for these developing storms to progress
east-southeastward over the next few hours. With deep, well-mixed
boundary layers and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles noted across
the region (0-3 km lapse rates of 9+ C/km and LCLs of 3-4 km per
latest mesoanalysis), isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible with these thunderstorms. Modestly stronger effective shear
across this region (around 30-35 kts) may also promote some
potential for isolated, marginally-severe hail with any more robust
cores. Given the expectation for thunderstorm coverage to remain
isolated, however, watch issuance is not expected.

..Chalmers/Guyer.. 05/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Q3YdhLuVj1MVkd-qmTKahx0mHlYpnIjyE6udkA40w3dnhHFwLOocXKaydICuv6HicHSII5_f= 9xeqPzeNvasomBRG-4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39600316 39990314 40390297 40870222 41630110 41990057
42100003 41939950 41559915 41219902 40699909 40229934
39839966 39280027 38980078 38820119 38740160 38720231
38900281 39260309 39600316=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)