ACUS11 KWNS 132155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132154=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-140000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Areas affected...north-central Pennsylvania into eastern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132154Z - 140000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms may produce instances of
strong winds and small hail.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms is moving northeast
across portions of northern Pennsylvania into eastern New York with
some brief enhancement of echo tops/intensity shown this afternoon.
Recent gusts to around 50 mph were recorded near Syracuse, NY. The
environment downstream is largely cooler and more stable. Some
warmer temps and dew points in the low to mid 50s are in place
across eastern PA amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This may
support mixing down of stronger 850 mb flow and a few instances of
strong wind gusts and perhaps small hail. Overall, this threat
should remain short in duration given loss of daytime heating soon.

..Thornton/Smith.. 05/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7c7NlFY6zt1scLHiaDUF37E2QMg7_aX1vjOvQFHbe9sT2b5BX0p-tx4yQBrBQHLaUAOozeIx_= PDizrbt4mmT2tyFl2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 41687737 42547672 43057643 43587621 43887598 43777541
43387510 42877507 42067524 41277560 40727590 40447617
40297668 40397721 40637767 40917769 41687737=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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