ACUS11 KWNS 132137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132137=20
MTZ000-132300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north-central Montana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199...

Valid 132137Z - 132300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 199
continues.

SUMMARY...A locally enhanced corridor of significant-gust (75+ mph)
potential is evident over parts of north-central Montana in WW199.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFTX shows a few deeper
cores evolving along/immediately atop a consolidating cold pool
surging north-northeastward into north-central MT -- immediately
northeast of Great Falls. This activity has produced several severe
gusts upwards of 60 mph thus far. Around 40 kt of deep-layer shear
orthogonal to the strengthening cold pool and forcing for ascent
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough should maintain this
convective band and related cold pool with northeastward extent. The pre-convective environment -- characterized by a hot/deeply mixed
boundary layer (around 50 deg F T/Td spreads) -- will aid in robust
convective momentum transport and the potential for a swath of
severe gusts (some upwards of 80 mph). This potential for
significant-severe gusts continues to be advertised by the latest high-resolution guidance including WOFs runs -- which has shown
gusts to near 90 mph. However, given convective trends up to this
point, gusts of this magnitude remain uncertain.

..Weinman.. 05/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!73TWrJbwyN1zqDtLmxNao3Nn5568IEQlbzpgsVt-RpmY33NcHoXjQO4IHKi-Gyv8Hk8vp39gv= NM-AAn1XpjylPdlUkw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46920980 47261023 47611079 47841159 47951161 48301132
48761063 48951011 48950936 48670873 48160844 47600867
46950943 46920980=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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