ACUS11 KWNS 131815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131815=20
MTZ000-132015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Northern Rockies into
central/northern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 131815Z - 132015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection will bring a risk for strong to
severe wind gusts this afternoon from the Northern Rockies into much
of central/northern Montana.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined,
mid-level shortwave trough across northern Oregon/southern
Washington. Strong diurnal heating, deep boundary layer mixing, and north-northeastward advection of mid-level moisture downstream of
this feature are contributing to deep inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles from portions of the northern Rockies into central/eastern
Montana. This aforementioned moisture will be enough to support weak
buoyancy of 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating this afternoon.

As increasing ascent overspreads the region, expectation is for
scattered convection to develop across the higher terrain of
southwestern Montana and northeastern Idaho before spreading
northeastward into central/northern Montana through the afternoon.
While moisture will remain rather limited, strong mid-level flow
(50-60+ kts sampled at 3-4 km AGL via the MSX VWP) coupled with
deep, dry sub-cloud layers (LCLs of 3-4+ km) and steep low-level
lapse rates will promote a risk for strong to severe wind gusts (and potentially a significant wind gust or two) across the region. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will eventually be needed to cover this
threat.

..Chalmers/Mosier.. 05/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_DSf7YTfAULvreFsMCYFWl64YRHni3d_rVoqKXQ9U9j0FhTaPU50WFa9FxaQOq6oVgpO2zJuT= KiSsjyGr3XX0P-dhoA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 46961250 47551237 48231212 48621166 48841089 48940991
48910910 48610869 47950855 47200866 46640877 46160906
45800930 45370978 45191022 45051075 44961129 44841193
44801253 44831303 45011329 45291325 45661301 46281273
46961250=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)