ACUS11 KWNS 131642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131641=20
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-131915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Areas affected...southwest PA...southeast OH...and parts of WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131641Z - 131915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong wind gusts and hail are possible this
afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing near and just ahead of a
surface cold front from far western NY into eastern OH. Pockets of
stronger heating have occurred ahead of this activity across
southwest PA into OH and parts of WV where some clearing has
occurred in the wake of early day cloudiness and showers. This has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low/mid 60s amid 50s
dewpoints. While boundary layer moisture will remain modest, cold
temperatures aloft will support steepened midlevel lapse rates. As a
result, modest destabilization is underway within a narrow corridor
ahead of the front. Instability is likely to remain modest, with
generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE expected by peak heating. While
upper level flow will be moderate, low-level flow is expected to be
somewhat less compared to further north closer to the surface low.
In fact, forecast guidance indicates 850 mb flow will weaken through
the day. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes will be sufficient
for some organized storm structures. However, limited instability
and modest boundary layer moisture will likely preclude more
substantial severe potential. Locally strong wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will be possible with the strongest cells,
but overall severe is expected to remain sparse, negating watch
issuance at this time.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 05/13/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LBknZWh4QuKsDQllFPo5uUS-KSpiC_aQEboru0Mq1iI3GgXFERALwxs5U2TRe0mR0bM0S63G= t2PxdLDq9NXEqxzCmc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

LAT...LON 41228031 41027968 40987875 40837840 40407835 39927858
39127936 38598013 38218092 38078132 38158182 38348209
38658226 39038215 40188139 41228031=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)