ACUS11 KWNS 121638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121638=20
FLZ000-121845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 121638Z - 121845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (including a few
supercells) may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
hail this afternoon. The need for a weather watch is uncertain, but
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 1630 UTC, thunderstorm coverage was increasing
across portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula. Ample
diurnal heating is occurring south of an east-west oriented
baroclinic zone, supporting moderate destabilization. As residual
inhibition is removed by heating and large-scale ascent from an
approaching upper trough, storm coverage should increase further, in
vicinity to the baroclinic zone and across eastern shore sea breeze
corridors this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear observed from area VADS and the
KMCO ACARS soundings are supportive of organized multicell clusters
and supercell structures. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, hail
is possible with the stronger updrafts, along with damaging gusts
owing to high PWAT content.

Current radar trends show some intensification of ongoing storms
over the Gulf and onshore. Weak storm-scale rotation and
organization of this initial convection suggests the severe threat
is increasing. Current expectations are for these initial storms to
continue maturing with a hail and some damaging wind risk, as
additional storms move onshore and develop along the sea breeze
boundary this afternoon. The strongest convection is expected to be
tied to the sea-breeze boundary farther east where deep-layer shear
is more robust.

Eventually, numerous storms are likely to be ongoing over
eastern/central portions of the Peninsula. It currently appears the
severe threat will be more isolated given the lack of a more
coherent organized cluster. Still, an isolated severe risk appears
possible. Given this uncertainty, a watch is currently unlikely,
though convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/12/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ag8AyGGK6t_Ppbo_DMVcMvWK_PntR7Ry8N2CsFXD0ai2zEzmQcRsg7c3fyMlDEna5UsggXu2= j6KOVn9H07kqjrGMlg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 27628286 28308289 28568309 29128336 29478323 30088143
29828113 26927999 26028000 25798014 26068146 26438215
26728230 27288263 27528288 27628286=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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