ACUS11 KWNS 112343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112342=20
NDZ000-120115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0707
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Areas affected...north-central and northeast North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112342Z - 120115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for locally strong wind gusts will exist
with any deeper convective elements through about 01z. A watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm has recently developed over
McHenry into Pierce Counties along a surface trough, where a narrow
axis of locally higher moisture content exists. The moisture
combined with a plume of very steep, low/mid-level lapse rates is
resulting in estimated MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg. Forecast soundings
suggest that the ambient environment features a deeply mixed
boundary layer extending upwards of 3 km, where westerly winds of
30-40 kt exist. As such, there appears to be some potential for
locally strong wind gusts for the next couple or hours with any
deeper convective elements before the boundary layer begins to cool
and stabilize.

..Mead/Gleason.. 05/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6eV_iQdxj366Zqb9dAjShVQmoQx_d7vHWXqNys7ALkS2tW0xfjLQKkMZB19n30PdmPwHiJSKX= oEUTu-Glvn8a8p3ePM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48170095 47770032 47699932 47889846 48419792 49009820
49239878 49180009 49040081 48560101 48170095=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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