ACUS11 KWNS 110551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110550=20
TXZ000-110715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Areas affected...Deep South Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198...

Valid 110550Z - 110715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe wind gusts will
remain possible in Deep South Texas. Given weakening trends observed
over the last hour, a downstream watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Both lightning and radar trends have shown a general
decrease in intensity of convection moving into Deep South Texas.
Recent observed wind gusts with a surging portion of the convective
line from George West/Beeville have been 32-38 kt. As this line
continues southward, MLCIN will remain relatively low given the
mid/upper 70s F dewpoints. Occasionally strong/marginally severe
gusts could occur in an isolated sense. Larger buoyancy resides near
the Rio Grande. Stronger cells within the valley could also produce
damaging gusts and perhaps large hail. Given the observed trends, a
downstream watch is not anticipated.

..Wendt.. 05/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-AgC5IcwQl5YuSI3eN2aOZgbKhrWEUeQ4r7V49I1_Q8TtaLKUIhbZUxhFdGrRslBzJfOVwzRR= p3OvJsQZ5Kr3ip3UiA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 27810001 28200036 28510017 28379990 28139955 28009889
28299820 28609771 28259738 28189735 27319752 26849761
26809852 26759930 27069960 27810001=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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