ACUS11 KWNS 102315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102315=20
TXZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...much of central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...197...

Valid 102315Z - 110215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196, 197
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms moving into central Texas continue to
produce large hail and a few damaging gusts. A transition to
damaging wind threat is expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...Substantial storm clusters persist near the
southward-moving cold front, with very large hail reported in
Runnels County. Another large storm complex was located over
Hamilton County as of 23Z. The air mass remains very moist and
unstable, and will continue to favor southeastward propagation as
the cold front pushes south.

Deep-layer shear is generally near 35 kt and boundary-parallel, and
low-level southeasterly winds are not particularly strong. However,
merging storms and outflows may eventually support forward
acceleration across much of the remainder of the warm sector late
this evening and overnight, with attendant increase in
storm-relative inflow.=20

Portions of east-central into southeast TX may require a watch later
this evening, should the existing severe activity develop beyond the
eastern boundaries of watches 196/197.

..Jewell.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_EjmuLRVL19Jc7Y3VgAQr5kWKst_jHrARJ0opOjGsNoJ5wm7MLyArPe_MDxMQ-NKumnA32Fk_= aOc1plWXNtFXWVfRJ8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29930183 30280137 30990105 31579996 31639945 31699840
31749778 31449750 31079717 30789701 30549686 29909704
29739733 29519788 29219879 28800001 28570047 29080069
29680145 29760181 29930183=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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