ACUS11 KWNS 102235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102235=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 102235Z - 110000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the stronger storms for the next couple hours
or so.

DISCUSSION...Widely spaced, loosely organized thunderstorms continue
to evolve within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow on the
far eastern periphery of a remnant outflow boundary extending into
the lower MS Valley. Earlier diurnal heating of a moist air mass and
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates (sampled by the 18Z SHV
sounding) have contributed to a moderately unstable air mass. While
low-level flow is weak, a belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow is contributing to around 35-40 kt of effective shear. The elongated mid/upper-level hodograph and aforementioned buoyancy is supporting
briefly organized convective cells -- with an attendant risk of
sporadic severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. However, given
a lack of focused forcing for ascent, the severe risk is expected to
remain transient and brief. Therefore, a watch is not expected,
though a localized severe risk may persist for another couple hours
before the boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ivLILnCVKJziS-U1bpxFuYNMhjEW10ITbvj_fh88pqK-lCNfyhodPHxoy5swjwqTxBKghVNx= DkjDc9fi0QUkKHqla8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32159376 32719323 33179244 33589170 33819104 33919028
33928962 33828896 33688859 33398822 32868802 32308812
31988842 31549034 31229241 31219308 31409363 31839383
32159376=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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