519
AXNT20 KNHC 101747
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 10 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge across the
western Atlantic and a 1005 mb low pressure near northwestern
Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
at the south-central Caribbean Sea through midweek. These winds
off Barranquilla, Colombia are expected to peak at near-gale to
gale-force tonight, along with 10 to 12 ft seas.
Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An early-season eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from
10N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 01N to 04N between 18W and 25W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near the border of Suriname and
French Guiana, and south of 10N, moving westward around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near
and off the coast of Suriname and French Guiana.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone to 01N21W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 01N21W to
beyond 00N24W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of
the monsoon trough from 01N to 03N west of 14W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring farther north of the ITCZ from 00N to 05N
between 33W and 50W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough curves west-southwestward from northern Florida
to near the coastal border of Texas and Louisiana. Widely
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present south of
New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. To the southwest, a 1009 mb
low near 22N96W is coupling with abundant tropical moisture to
trigger numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms
at the southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is promoting light to gentle
winds and 1 to 2 ft seas at the eastern Gulf, including the
Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2
to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.
For the forecast, the low will continue to produce scattered
thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf into Mon. Fresh to
strong SE winds will pulse each evening offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves off the coast. A cold front
will move off the Texas coast Mon morning, reach from Tampa Bay
to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue, then exit the Gulf Wed. Numerous
thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary. Behind the
front, mainly tranquil conditions will set in, but some fresh NW
winds are likely offshore Veracruz Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning.
Fresh to strong ENE to E trade winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are
present at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin.
Mostly fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north-
central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate SE
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the lee of Cuba and near
Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas
prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.
For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Feature section, a
tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly
trade winds with rough seas in the south-central basin through
late week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds and
locally rough seas are anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras
through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across
the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Convergent southerly winds near a stationary front off the Georgia
coast are creating scattered moderate convection off northeast
Florida, north of 29N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist north of 25N
between 70W and the Florida coast. To the east, a broad
subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of
4 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and 70W. From 15N to 25N
between 35W and the Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds
and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with
5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of
the basin, with the pressure gradient between it and lower
pressure in the Caribbean supporting fresh to locally strong winds
off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. A cold front is
expected to reach the waters off northeastern Florida late Mon
and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally
strong winds and rough seas will follow the front before improving
Wed as the front weakens. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong,
are likely near the front. In the wake of the cold front, high
pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate
to fresh SE to S winds and moderate to rough seas east of 70W late this week.
$$
Chan
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* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (1:2320/106)