ACUS11 KWNS 102012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102011=20
TXZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0697
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Texas into Northwest Texas.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196...

Valid 102011Z - 102145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196
continues.

SUMMARY...Hail producing supercells across West Texas and Northwest
Texas are expected to congeal into an MCS by late afternoon/evening
with an increasing severe wind threat.

DISCUSSION...2 distinct areas of supercell development have emerged
near the surface low and near the confluence of the outflow boundary
and synoptic front. Elsewhere, convergence does not appear to be
sufficient for development at this time. The composite front
continues to move south rather quickly across Northwest Texas.
Therefore, the tornado threat may be somewhat lower than previously
thought as supercells continue to get undercut. However, some
tornado threat may exist with the Mitchell county supercell as it
interacts with the front. Given the strongly unstable environment
and increasing shear (KDYX VWP now sampling 40 knots at 6-7km), the
large hail threat will persist for several more hours. In addition,
given the development of several supercells in close proximity to
one another, upscale growth into one or more southeastward moving
clusters/MCSs seems likely by late afternoon. Once this occurs, the
large hail threat will likely transition to more of a severe wind
threat.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!61tUWSyISSqflmvlzy2r-jIYG1CyKBYwRD9Jci5PpZGBfywrAVUqA9mQjM7Vkl-EPthxrGv9k= Nama-2xj5mNAgX_Srw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 32650161 32910091 33119931 32839842 32489750 31489749
30989810 30559961 30450072 30510125 30950188 32650161=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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