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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0695

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 10, 2026 19:11:08
    ACUS11 KWNS 101911
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101910=20
    NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-102145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0695
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

    Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 101910Z - 102145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated low-topped convection may produce locally strong
    wind gusts, with an isolated damaging wind gust or two possible.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts isolated,
    low-topped convection developing along portions of the
    Appalachians/Blue Ridge. While low-level moisture will limited ahead
    of an approaching cold front (surface dewpoints in the 40s to
    low-50s F), latest mesoanalysis and recent ACARS profiles from
    DCA/BWI depict weak buoyancy (100-300+ J/kg MLCAPE), steep low-level
    lapse rates (8.5-9.0 C/km), and deep, well-mixed boundary layers
    across the region. This will promote some potential for isolated
    gusty winds, and perhaps a damaging wind gust or two, with any
    stronger downdrafts as convection spreads eastward across the area.
    With the severe risk forecast to remain limited in coverage and
    magnitude, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7j8AJs7GGrHqKtB2Q8TzZslZLHPx8LmtqAkSYbcUKUrp5LTl_vyyfUbr6jkIv8bah2WCpTKar= 3K8NQL1UV5BRpunlDg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 39347927 39737824 39917767 40147705 40257666 40447614
    40527559 40507519 40357492 40087501 39777529 39477564
    39237591 38827640 38287730 37917828 37677898 37717973
    37878041 38078068 38328071 38898012 39347927=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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