ACUS11 KWNS 101825
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101824=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 101824Z - 102000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An ongoing thunderstorm cluster may persist southeastward
over the next couple of hours, with the potential for eventual
intensification. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may eventually be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A persistent convective cluster is ongoing across
portions of northeastern Texas, with latest high-res guidance
continuing to struggle to capture this activity. Latest
surface/mesoanalysis suggests that the environment immediately
downstream of this cluster is located within the remnant outflow of
overnight convection and possesses some residual inhibition (evident
on 18z SHV observed sounding). Thus, one plausible scenario is a
gradual weakening/dissipation of this cluster, with a weakening
trend and surging outflow noted along the southern flank via recent
radar imagery.

A small convective segment with a stronger core is noted along the
eastern edge of this cluster, however. This segment is in closer
proximity to the leading edge of the surface cold pool and more
favorably aligned with westerly deep-layer flow/shear. With
continued diurnal heating modifying the downstream air mass, there
is some potential for this cluster to persist and perhaps intensify east-southeastward over the next couple of hours. In this scenario,
an increase in the threat for severe wind gusts and perhaps large
hail with any stronger, embedded cores would be possible.

Trends will continue to be monitored, and a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed for a portion of the area should it appear
likely that this cluster will continue to persist.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5UpjMQbUX4vta_8gzDHeLvl80gRaztt1cK_jkK9TkNe2OFGIdfF1cp8ItlWPzh_KUGrXVTByq= 4gZCU1yh4gb1AXClyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33289593 33339517 33369392 33269340 33109317 32819289
32419284 31959304 31689374 31609435 31639517 31749596
31909654 32349699 32669693 32979659 33239598 33289593=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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