ACUS11 KWNS 101756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101755=20
TXZ000-101930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...parts of West Texas into Northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101755Z - 101930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to form this afternoon with a
threat of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...A surface front, reinforced by outflow from morning
convection, is moving slowly southward across northwest Texas. A
warm, moist airmass is present south of this front with temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This currently
yields around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Additional heating/moistening may
lead to even greater instability by mid to late afternoon.=20

GOES East meso-sector satellite imagery shows some deepening cumulus
and glaciating tops with a few storms already north of the frontal
boundary. This indicates some ascent across the area. Therefore,
within the next 1 to 2 hours, expect surface based strong to severe
convection along and south of this boundary across northwest Texas
as the remaining CIN erodes.=20

The DYX VWP is currently sampling around 30 knots of 0-6 km shear.
This shear is expected to increase through the day as the mid-level
flow gradually strengthens. Therefore, supercells are expected with
a large hail threat initially, before growing upscale into a MCS
with an increasing severe wind threat by this evening.

Initial convection appears most likely where convergence is
maximized near the intersection of the outflow and the front near
Haskell and Shackelford counties in Texas.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FhhjTQp01ZqV96uywSKc7_JcwBUsBcnul50Kgv0DTtqOxKfD0qUTiAMazgjAlS1wHhoRYYPW= 9BPtF7Akcnb7iVmXmE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31480152 32070179 32550192 32800185 32900139 32930086
33040032 33249988 33279926 33069884 32819857 32019837
31349878 30819947 30770007 30720080 30860134 31480152=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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