ACUS11 KWNS 100222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100221=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-100415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...western into southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

Valid 100221Z - 100415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts to around 60 mph and isolated hail remains
possible from northwest into south-central Oklahoma. Depending on
convective trends, a new watch may be considered.

DISCUSSION...The initial supercells which produced large hail have
decreased in intensity as they continue eastward across southwest
and toward south-central OK, though still capable of hail and severe
gusts. Loss of heating / increasing inhibition are negatively
impacting these storms. However, the air mass is more moist with
southward extend toward the Red River, with PWAT of 1.00-1.25".
Given south/southeast low-level flow, this may at least partially
counteract the negative influence of a cooling boundary layer. Even
if new development is unlikely, this environment may sustain the
ongoing cells, with potential for downstream severe gusts or hail
over 1.00".

To the north, a line of storms continues to push southeastward out
of northwest OK, where a wind gust of 66 mph was measured at KAVK.
This system will likely persist to some degree as it translates
south/southeast along the theta-e gradient which currently extends
through central OK. Given the instability axis remains from western
through southern OK, development along southwest flanks are
preferred.

..Jewell.. 05/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HXaJnuTw_CEz32LxHfikkJXEnNjr-CRNJU40sib0ecgUmHbh00xKdZKoT8AmJG7A57Yf_VWl= 3mIBamCeFY7ZWh7_8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35509993 35989970 36129921 36379885 36729865 36689820
36389802 36009779 35379720 35009660 34709599 34339578
34139590 33949609 33839651 33909777 34579936 34939975
35509993=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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