ACUS11 KWNS 092319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092319=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-100215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0690
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...western Oklahoma...far eastern Texas Panhandle and
northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194...

Valid 092319Z - 100215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail threat persists into western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas. A few damaging gusts may develop anywhere within
the watch.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells currently extend from the eastern TX
Panhandle into west-central OK, with reports from 1.50" to 2.01"
diameter. These cells are interacting with the moisture/instability
axis while the boundary layer remains near peak heating.

Midlevel west/northwest winds of 40 kt atop backed/southeasterly
surface winds are creating favorable shear profiles to support the
hail cells, and the increasing low-level jet may enhance inflow and
rightward motion later this evening before inhibition increases.

Farther north, a line of high-based convection persists from central
KS into the OK Panhandle, where dewpoints are only in the 30s and
40s F. However, an increasing low-level jet this evening will bring
50s F dewpoints northward into the area, possibly supporting a
degree of strengthening along any existing outflow surge.

..Jewell.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_1e01_5qd0aOeO_PuOnPgdys2GpYZ7DGT_VivtJRSn174uXHIno4vu6H9PunVTpuYBgRWwFsi= juQ689_MZuKG7FYpBs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33939988 34469993 35380016 35900040 36560050 36740054
36949992 37269930 36909865 36359833 35219834 34379802
33959797 33659817 33569838 33539891 33729966 33939988=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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