ACUS11 KWNS 092033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092032=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the central Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 092032Z - 092130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorm development should occur
from the eastern TX/OK Panhandles into western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas this afternoon. Large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts will be the main hazards.

DISCUSSION...Weak convection is noted along a subtle boundary
extending from southwestern Kansas into northeastern New Mexico,
with modest moisture return ongoing ahead of this boundary and east
of a dryline across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles, western Oklahoma,
and northwest Texas. A developing Cu field is evident across this
region in visible satellite imagery, with forecast soundings and
latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding
inhibition. Intensification of the southeastward moving convection
as it encounters this greater moisture and additional development
along a north-south oriented dryline across the eastern Texas
Panhandle are both likely over the next couple of hours.

Strengthening westerly flow aloft ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough is expected to promote increasing effective bulk
shear of 30-40 kts, which will be sufficient for high-based
supercells. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates, this will
support a risk of large to very large hail. Steep low-level lapse
rates, deep well-mixed boundary layers, and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg will
also promote a threat for severe wind gusts. Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8srncnM9UO9j4QRHxsyTvcxrGv-zv-T1dKijNktHVtAvxt7yAXI7RYj7uFxAyQo2x0OTe_dSn= o01RLwPki1DsqlYqjg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33429955 33900035 34310053 34880069 35630086 36200080
36640071 36960029 37139960 36999882 36579852 35569840
34889840 34479848 33909866 33459897 33429955=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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