ACUS11 KWNS 091946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091946=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-092145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast/coastal Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091946Z - 092145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts exists across portions of southeast Texas this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar/satellite imagery depicts ongoing
attempts at convective initiation along and south of a weak/remnant
surface boundary across portions of southeast Texas, with an
isolated thunderstorm noted near the Austin Metro. This activity is
occurring immediately downstream of a mid-level shortwave trough,
with cool temperatures aloft and a moist low-level air mass
supporting moderate to locally strong buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg
MLCAPE per latest mesoanalysis and regional ACARS soundings).
Enhanced southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature (as sampled
by the POE/LCH VAD profiles) is contributing to 40-50+ kts of
effective bulk shear, supportive of supercells; however, this
greater shear is largely displaced towards the eastern portions of
the discussion area (well ahead of the shortwave trough axis) with
much weaker shear farther west. Should a thunderstorm
develop/persist within the more favorable environment farther east,
the resultant elongated hodographs coupled with modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an attendant risk for large hail. Infiltrating dry mid-level air (evident on latest GOES water vapor
imagery) will also support greater evaporative cooling potential
with stronger downdrafts (DCAPE of 900-1100 J/kg per latest
mesoanalysis).

The close proximity of the mid-level shortwave and its eastward
progression along with the potentially unfavorable spatial overlap
of better deep-layer shear and low-level convergence will likely
yield a very narrow window for severe potential, with veering winds
aloft and subsidence behind the shortwave tempering
development/severe risk. Thus, while the ambient environment remains conditionally favorable for large hail/damaging winds across
portions of far southeastern Texas, watch issuance appears unlikely
at this time owing to uncertainty regarding the
development/persistence of sustained storms within this better
environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, however.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5OHu915nPaA1W4Ftf24X3oVYdbDlPUmnUfDn5fhN0wzVw0pw9aFCYGzx2KCXQd6HG_SEAvKvB= KQZGxNbTWArNNpNcLs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30509369 30189367 29849375 29639394 29459442 29449481
29449534 29539613 29649677 29899720 30189764 30409774
30589760 30709731 30919656 31009614 31079577 31139546
31129495 31009426 30769383 30509369=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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