ACUS11 KWNS 091711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091711=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Panhandle into southern
Georgia and North Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091711Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...At least some risk for isolated damaging wind gusts may
persist into the afternoon from the central Florida Panhandle into
southern Georgia and North Florida. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a convectively
reinforced surface front extending from near the Georgia coastline west-southwestward to offshore of the Emerald Coast of Florida.
South of this surface boundary temperatures in the mid/upper-70s to
low-80s F and dewpoints in the low/mid-70s will support around
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by early this afternoon despite poor mid-level
lapse rates (per latest mesoanalysis and the 12z JAX observed
sounding). Strong effective bulk shear of 40-50+ kts will be
sufficient to support organization of stronger updrafts, and PWATs
of 1.75-1.90" across the region may support the potential for
heavier water loading and isolated damaging wind gusts with any
stronger cores over the next few hours, especially along and south
of the aforementioned surface boundary. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time owing to
the marginal thermodynamic environment and the expectation for any
severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and coverage.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7sbmqQwktvhZSHwIPXR-KGyoDYrEefP7xd2saYCevw29TetIWdLo-cbkA2aTeui_JubUwKqnq= 1v_wp1K4vcM5r6-mWE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30148595 30168595 30348579 30408535 30508459 30578400
30748321 31038268 31308218 31468193 31448167 31228144
31018138 30628132 30258121 29888128 29718162 29578228
29508272 29458317 29438343 29688361 29888377 29958403
29918425 29738452 29618474 29528500 29608539 29948567
30148595=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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