ACUS11 KWNS 091729
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091729=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0683
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Lower Michigan and northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091729Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Gradual thunderstorm intensification is anticipated
through mid-afternoon across far eastern Lower Michigan and
northwest Ohio. Overall thunderstorm intensity and coverage should
be sufficiently limited to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows the early stages of
convective initiation across eastern MI as a cold front begins to
impinge on a plume of modest moisture (dewpoints in the low 50s).
MRMS VIL data and lightning trends also show steady growth of these
cells, suggesting that this is likely the onset of the severe threat
that is expected to materialize through the day across the Lake Erie
region as the front continues to push east. Although buoyancy will
remain fairly marginal (MLCAPE values are currently estimated to be
around 250 J/kg, but may increase to around 500 J/kg over the next
few hours), regional VWPs are sampling strong flow aloft that is
supporting 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50 knots. Forecast
soundings suggest that as convection matures it should reach
sufficient depth to utilize this wind shear, leading to gradual
organization and intensification. Sporadic large hail, possibly up
to 1.5 inches in diameter, and damaging gusts will become
increasingly possible before convection migrates over Lake
Erie/portions of southern Ontario in the coming hours. The overall
marginal thermodynamic environment should modulate convective
intensity on the whole and support primarily a localized severe
threat.

..Moore/Gleason.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9IfT234VKIToqmN3zTR2P9dmLgj2O4gZTr0P-0jxnsqTy6t0HtqhXSUmxXPYwOK4Wucn1poaX= OHqxoEKOQUBv7FUkWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 40938461 41148480 41498493 41808488 42038474 42308430
43118332 43618299 43908287 44028277 44058254 43968225
43448203 42918203 42258242 41428296 40918361 40858399
40938461=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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