ACUS11 KWNS 090651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090650=20
TXZ000-090845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of South/Deep South Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090650Z - 090845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe wind gusts are possible with
strong/severe convection moving into the lower Rio Grand Valley
region. Limited coverage of severe storms is expected to preclude
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow into the higher terrain in Mexico
has promoted storm development earlier this evening. This activity
is approaching the lower Rio Grande Valley. Given the forcing from
the shortwave trough moving into South Texas and the minimal CIN on
account of mid/upper 70s F dewpoints, this activity will likely
impact portions of South/Deep South Texas. Steep mid-level lapse
rates and strong effective shear indicate that large hail will be
possible. Severe winds may also occur, particularly if any upscale
growth can occur. Radar trends have indicated increasing weak
thunderstorms over the last hour. Additional development appears
possible, but severe storm coverage is still currently expected to
remain low.

..Wendt/Hart.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!97CbNuS1Wb5-gqRsU2kSbfE5Z5pKhXn9hM5Lmi23MUG1SH7OAinpzfIK7NT7K7lMQookf53nZ= HSA247BWLyBRlW-RZY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 27089796 26989812 26909863 26799950 26819965 27019998
27300012 27610006 27799987 28149876 28079807 27789782
27219787 27089796=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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