ACUS11 KWNS 090220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090219=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southern Arkansas...and northwest
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090219Z - 090415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The stronger storms will pose a risk of isolated severe
hail and eventually locally damaging wind gusts. A watch is not
expected in the near term, though trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A west/east-oriented band of elevated thunderstorms is
evolving from far northeast TX into southern AR, mostly aided by
weak low-level warm advection. The SHV 00Z sounding showed around 7
C/km midlevel lapse rates atop a relatively dry/stable boundary
layer, which is yielding around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This elevated
buoyancy, coupled with a long/mostly straight hodograph (around 40
kt of effective shear), may promote a couple loosely organized cells
capable of producing severe hail -- especially in the near term.=20

With time, an increase in positive low-level theta-e advection is
expected in response to a passing midlevel trough to the north of
the area. High-resolution guidance continues to suggest that this
will result in an increase in storm coverage over the next several
hours. While this activity may gradually congeal into a loosely
organized cluster and root in the moistening boundary layer (posing
an increasing damaging-wind risk), fairly nebulous/unfocused forcing
for ascent limits confidence in this scenario. Therefore, a watch is
not currently expected in the near term, though convective and
environmental trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_Aid6vg-A_bGp2GFp-JctDqH_vSDT2tP0EHnA-mXmvMzOmhdGUo541oR46D_B78uR05CkNDQ= G10jFvf-bxlEQIYNRw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 33009560 33389540 33619498 33839429 33869336 33749273
33369197 32959189 32479213 32199279 32109432 32219513
32409554 32739570 33009560=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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