569
AXNT20 KNHC 070945
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 7 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W,
S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15.5W and
continues southwestward to near 01.5S31W, with the tropical
wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west
of the tropical wave near 02N37W to near the coast of Brazil at
00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted
S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the
tropical wave.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters, with
high pressure ridging in control across the waters ahead of it.
The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E Gulf and
lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE
winds over the eastern Gulf E of 86W, and across the western Gulf
nearshore waters where the pressure gradient has weakened slightly
due to front moving toward the SW Louisiana and Texas coasts.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, mainly in the central
Gulf, with locally strong SE winds near the Yucatan Peninsula due
to the diurnal trough. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 21N and W of 89W,
except lower in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft across the
remainder of the basin, including the eastern Gulf.
For the forecast, the weak front is forecast to move slowly
today, and quickly stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by
this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into
Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from
the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan
Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold
front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun,
and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche
by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some
possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the
fronts.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America is supporting
fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas
are in the 6-9 ft range. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras
with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas
prevail elsewhere from 10.5N to 19N, as well as S of the Yucatan
Channel, with mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the
basin, including near the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and
SW Caribbean S of 10.5N, along with 2-4 ft seas.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the
forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of
Honduras, though diminishing there Mon night as a cold front may
approach the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and
central Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening frontal system with attendant low pressure is in the
process of moving through into the Mid-Atlantic and SE United
States. Numerous convection is out ahead of the front from
northern Florida and Georgia northward to the Delmarva and beyond.
Some of this convection is impacting the waters off SE Georgia
and northern Florida, while winds there out of the S have
increased to moderate to fresh. To the E, a weakening front
extends from low pressure N of the discussion waters through
31N56W to 27.5N70W, with scattered moderate convection present N
of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft
N of 28N between 54W and 64W. Continuing eastward, high pressure N
of the area combined with broad troughing supports moderate to
locally fresh mainly NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas across the area N
of 20N between 20W and 47W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with 4-6 ft seas,
except 3-4 ft W of 64W.
For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front in the central
Atlantic is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out
today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight,
gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern
waters through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off
northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is
expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon
night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to
marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a
high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape
Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period,
allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.
Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern
Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into
early next week.
$$
Lewitsky
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