ACUS11 KWNS 070639
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070638=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-070815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Areas affected...southern MS into south AL...southwest GA...and the
FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 189...

Valid 070638Z - 070815Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 189 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado and damaging-wind threat will continue
overnight. Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Despite the presence of very rich low-level moisture,
moderate buoyancy, and strong deep-layer flow/shear, convection has
become rather disorganized early this morning across southern MS/AL
into southwest GA. This is likely due to gradually increasing MLCINH
and generally poor low-level lapse rates related to the deep, moist
boundary layer. However, favorable low-level moisture transport and
upper jet dynamics will continue to sustain convection through the
overnight, with most guidance depicting renewed strengthening of
850-700 mb flow.=20

While a cluster mode may be maintained through the overnight hours,
strong effective shear (50+ kt) will remain favorable for embedded
supercells and/or small bowing segments, if there is any uptick in
storm intensity. 0-1 km SRH will conditionally support tornadoes
along/ahead of the composite outflow/front that will continue to
move southeastward with time. Strong low/midlevel flow will also
support damaging-wind potential, especially if any stronger cold
pools can become established. Isolated hail also cannot be ruled out
with the strongest updrafts.=20

With some preconvective moistening and destabilization expected into
parts of southeast AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, eventual
downstream watch issuance is considered likely.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!76hxfo-p3IMhFKkdNT8IKcw0JTxLdbMl9lZPmSqEAACmXnRZ1J081pdmTvCvDludnxcdQMs69= uWbHXhdSHQtj2uW_9M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31198915 31868672 32358431 32308379 31908354 31288357
30918442 30558627 30228791 30188891 30428919 30718922
31198915=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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