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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0657

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 06, 2026 23:08:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 062308
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062307=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-070030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0657
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

    Areas affected...southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...

    Valid 062307Z - 070030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells showing signs of intensification and increasing
    tornado potential.

    DISCUSSION...Supercells crossing the LA/MS border and across
    southern MS have shown an uptick in intensity over the last 30
    minutes. VAD profiles from HDC (Hammond,LA) show increasing the
    850-700 mb flow beginning to be analyzed just south of the MS
    border. This increase in the low to mid-level flow will aid in
    increasing low level shear and thusly an increase in the tornado
    threat this evening.

    The cell moving into Walthall County MS has had a tornado reported
    with it over the last 30 minutes. This cell will continue into a
    favorable thermodynamic environment across southern MS, where
    moderate to strong MLCAPE overlaps strong deep layer shear around
    50-65 kts. This shows signs of cycling and strengthening. This will
    continue to pose a risk for tornadoes including potential for a
    strong tornado.

    Two other supercells across Concordia County LA and across Copiah
    County in MS are also become better organized in the low-levels.
    These are also moving within a very favorable thermodynamic
    environment and may also pose a risk for tornadoes over the next few
    hours.

    ..Thornton.. 05/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_KklYFqOnJ77aoadeVBuO0BTkVIcANCkm-EfwlBtn98N2SgnHLasI4QfJU6V03qcy-2UjASf= OUrKXo99drRin5EPXg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31509204 31729168 32239065 32379041 32558996 32528956
    32388919 32208908 32018908 31838910 31488919 31208934
    30849017 30799075 31219188 31509204=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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