ACUS11 KWNS 062145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062145=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-062345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of Northeastern Alabama...northern Georgia
into far southeastern Tennessee and southwestern North Carolina.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062145Z - 062345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing storm coverage could support a few organized
supercells or clusters this afternoon/evening. While buoyancy is
modest, deep-layer shear remains quite strong along and near the
front. A risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may
develop.

DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and visible imagery
showed convection blossoming along the diffuse frontal zone
stretching from northern AL into GA and portions of TN/NC. Obstinate
cloud cover has limited buoyancy along the front northeast of
Tornado Watch 187. Still, mid 60s F surface dewpoints are allowing
for ~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. As storm coverage increases upstream over
AL, strong deep-layer flow (60-80 kt) may allow for organization
into supercells or linear clusters. This could support damaging
gusts with the strongest storms given the rather strong background
shear. Low-level shear remains modest, but given the proximity to
the front, a tornado or two may also be possible, especially with
any sustained supercells.

Observational trends and CAM guidance show a messy storm mode with
numerous storm interactions likely. This, along with the weak
buoyancy makes the severe potential in this region highly uncertain.
However, some severe risk could materialize, and a WW is possible.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8GXaLtJLSWFExpLAYvCSpQGil8t4VPyVCGdeP3aFvH_7pd76NETxrOtldmk2jkwMTf6vy9Q8-= WSF7fKHQ42WMwaHiVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34908626 34968617 35238447 35248390 35138326 34688317
34098322 33828358 33808434 33958526 34208616 34258627
34908626=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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