• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0654

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 06, 2026 20:14:36
    ACUS11 KWNS 062014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062014=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0654
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

    Areas affected...parts of central and southern Mississippi and
    adjacent portions of Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...187...

    Valid 062014Z - 062215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186, 187 continues.

    SUMMARY...Evolving supercells accompanied by increasing potential
    for a strong tornado or two through 5-7 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Substantive intensification of initially widely
    scattered discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as a
    seasonably moist boundary layer approaches peak afternoon
    destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg)
    and inhibition continues to erode from below, as depicted in
    soundings from Jackson MS. As subtle mid-level height falls
    overspread the region during the next few hours, further suppression
    of inhibition appears probable, which may result in increasing
    number of intensifying storms.

    Latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate notable intensification
    of west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 40-50+ kt)
    across east central Louisiana through south central Mississippi
    between now and 23-00Z. As this occurs, associated strengthening of
    deep-layer shear may promote increasing tornadic potential in
    evolving supercells. Even with only some further enlargement of
    modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, high surface dew
    points now in the mid 70s are enhancing near-surface buoyancy and
    potential upward accelerations, which may contribute to the risk for
    a strong tornado or two.

    ..Kerr.. 05/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8i2_--Ifj2DaOfVYZZ2NCdBecB8iizi1lOmPQ97SYC_K2wWStu0q7YrCAnB9uFnbD-mB1mYNW= DU-ibzx_TOKYoMFk5g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 32269094 32408966 32528844 31828798 30628864 30878990
    30929163 31369193 32269094=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 06, 2026 20:30:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 062014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062014=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-062215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0654
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

    Areas affected...parts of central and southern Mississippi and
    adjacent portions of Alabama

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 186...187...

    Valid 062014Z - 062215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 186, 187 continues.

    SUMMARY...Evolving supercells accompanied by increasing potential
    for a strong tornado or two through 5-7 PM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Substantive intensification of initially widely
    scattered discrete thunderstorm development is ongoing as a
    seasonably moist boundary layer approaches peak afternoon
    destabilization (including mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg)
    and inhibition continues to erode from below, as depicted in
    soundings from Jackson MS. As subtle mid-level height falls
    overspread the region during the next few hours, further suppression
    of inhibition appears probable, which may result in increasing
    number of intensifying storms.

    Latest Rapid Refresh continues to indicate notable intensification
    of west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer (to 40-50+ kt)
    across east central Louisiana through south central Mississippi
    between now and 23-00Z. As this occurs, associated strengthening of
    deep-layer shear may promote increasing tornadic potential in
    evolving supercells. Even with only some further enlargement of
    modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, high surface dew
    points now in the mid 70s are enhancing near-surface buoyancy and
    potential upward accelerations, which may contribute to the risk for
    a strong tornado or two.

    ..Kerr.. 05/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ZTbiuQy8Cnlmc5CTag-ODyFKrmfXWuptC9sioZ01LBfzn2xs-UVYGWYNOysUzo4olo3T8_Ol= MutoaL4e1MhulODDFk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 32269094 32408966 32528844 31828798 30628864 30878990
    30929163 31369193 32269094=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)