ACUS11 KWNS 061018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061018=20
TXZ000-061245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 061018Z - 061245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop near or after
dawn.

DISCUSSION...GPS PW values near Del Rio have substantially increased
from near 1 inch at 00 UTC to above 1.5 inches as of 10 UTC, with
surface dewpoints increasing through the low 70s F. A storm has
recently developed northwest of Del Rio across eastern Terrell
County, and this increase in deeper low-level moisture beneath
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may yield additional storm
development near a weak surface front draped across the TX Hill
Country vicinity. MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg, strong (60+ kt) deep-layer
shear, and elongated hodographs are conditionally supportive of
supercells capable of producing large to very large hail, if deep
convection can mature within this regime.=20

In the absence of substantial large-scale ascent, storm coverage
through the morning is uncertain. However, given the favorable
environment, watch issuance is possible if short-term trends support development of persistent intense storms.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FP-RdyFk0Ntq1TYaxcuHMTGnhvPr6MBvePxtPfJ1iUjO8_yO8QDjJH4ErGzW7ofR5V7k6Pj4= wh0y8wdQ77qBfEDiJo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29880192 31040181 31340064 31339891 31299841 30979815
30369818 29989833 29809843 29609867 29519893 29429940
29329999 29240049 29240086 29880192=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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