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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 06, 2026 01:59:59
    ACUS11 KWNS 060159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060159=20
    TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0859 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

    Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Arkansas...Western
    Tennessee...Far Northwest Mississippi

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

    Valid 060159Z - 060400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storm development will be possible across parts of north-central and northeast Arkansas over the next few hours. A
    tornado threat, along with potential for large hail and severe wind
    gusts will be possible. New watch issuance could be needed to the
    east of WW 184, if cells can trend upward in intensity.

    DISCUSSION...At the surface, a cold front is located in
    north-central Arkansas, along which several cells are ongoing. So
    far, these storms have remained mostly on the cool side of the
    boundary and are elevated. However, short-term model forecasts
    suggest that additional storms will develop over the next few hours
    ahead of the front from central Arkansas northeastward into western
    Tennessee. If this happens, then surface-based storms will become
    likely. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km shear near
    75 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 550 m2/s2. This
    environment will be favorable for severe storms if if cell coverage
    markedly increases late this evening as the HRRR suggests. Under
    this scenario, new weather watch issuance would probably be needed
    to the east of the current watch.

    ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RdWGUFk-Jhhhvu-0N3pgleztnT9DXb-APLJ61mjyINJzJjoajrxrb81jGUoEYOajtuBGeLQt= 9aL9mlApHtQU5XmbdY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

    LAT...LON 35249346 35529332 35739287 35969152 36129024 36018954
    35848931 35578921 35278926 34948963 34789022 34519205
    34459287 34649322 34939341 35249346=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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