ACUS11 KWNS 052319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052319=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-060115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Northwest Louisiana...Far
Southeast Oklahoma...Southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 052319Z - 060115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop early this evening
across parts of northeast Texas, far southeast Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and an isolated
tornado threat will be possible. Weather watch will likely be needed
once convective initiation takes place.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from southeast
Oklahoma extending southwestward to near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro
and into north-central Texas. Along and ahead of the front, a field
of cumulus is evident on visible satellite imagery. Low-level
convergence is likely maximized near Fort Worth, where a boundary
from the southeast recently merged with the cold front. Short-term
model forecasts suggest that cells will initiate near the front
early this evening from the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro northeastward
into northeast Texas. Ahead of the front, moderate instability is
analyzed with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range.
In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 70
knots. The RAP has 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km
range. This should support supercells with large hail, and
hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. The
storms may also be associated with severe wind gusts and an isolated
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Q0EvsYiOOKqJ-0dR1FGhlaNgrYGIsXu5tVSlgWURbd7LVOe7kszfVoo2jKtZHm2aDRduYUjM= onFEwAkQ_FDOtcpfAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34649389 34349323 33699305 32999320 32579352 32339410
32239532 32329595 32659625 33069639 33599641 34329614
34719544 34649389=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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