ACUS11 KWNS 051937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051937=20
TXZ000-052230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...parts of northwestern into north central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 051937Z - 052230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The initiation of strong thunderstorms appears possible to
the west of Dallas/Forth Worth within the next couple of hours.=20
This may include the evolution of an intensifying supercell or two,
which could pose potential for producing large, damaging hail
impacting at least parts of the Metroplex by 5-7 PM. If/when this
becomes more certain, a severe weather watch probably will be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Just ahead of a southward advancing cold front, now
southeast of the Wichita Falls TX vicinity, stronger surface heating
and deeper boundary-layer mixing are ongoing in a narrow corridor
roughly focused along I-20 across the Abilene into Fort Worth
vicinity. At least attempts at deepening convective development are
underway within this regime to the west-north of Mineral Wells,
where low-level forcing for ascent may be aided by weak low-level
warm advection and locally enhanced convergence, near the general
intersection of the cold front and dryline.

This is occurring beneath larger-scale mid/upper ridging
overspreading much of the southern Great Plains. However, based on
various model output, including convection allowing guidance,=20
further insolation, coupled with subtle mid-level height falls and
cooling, might become supportive of thunderstorm initiation within
the next few hours. How long this activity is sustained before
tending to be undercut by the southward advancing cold front, and
whether this occurs prior to acquiring inflow of higher
boundary-layer moisture content along and to the east of the
dryline, remain unclear.

Even in the drier more strongly heated boundary-layer just to the west/southwest of the cold front/dryline intersection, initial
thunderstorm development may become capable of producing large hail
and a locally strong downburst, in the presence of steep-lapse rates
and strong deep-layer shear. If convection is able to acquire
inflow of boundary-layer air with dew points near 70F, which may be
maintained across eastern portions of the Metroplex, the potential
for much larger and damaging hail will become considerably greater.

..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!63B3IiQJgVOwiKyCPoOPaNRgrx7jn55ee_nvfhTlt_sgk6STh2ySUQOnpUNI93yb8svCeklCm= GF3aQ2B4dSvypGBAVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

LAT...LON 33289903 33379822 33019639 32189747 32399914 32829950
33289903=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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