From Mike Powell@1:2320/106 to All on Tuesday, May 05, 2026 08:59:46
684
AXNT20 KNHC 050907
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 5 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, S of
22N, moving slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted S of 07N between 16W and 21W.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, S of
18N, and is nearly stationary. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues
southwestward to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to near
the coast of 02N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted S of 03N between 12.5W and 28.5W, and S of
03N between 34W and 51W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Moderate to locally
fresh SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are over the western Gulf, with
gentle E-SE winds and 1-3 ft seas over the eastern half.
For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Moderate to
fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf today as high
pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh
to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed.
Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening.
The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal
waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening, then retreating
back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the
eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the
Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean, except for
moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with
similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into
the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of
the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary
dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N61W to 23.5N73W to 1012 mb low
pressure near 25N75W to the Straits of Florida. Numerous moderate
and isolated strong convection is near the Central Bahamas from
24N to 26N between 74W and 78W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted N of 26N within roughly 180 nm ahead of the front.
Winds near the front have diminished slightly during the past
several hours, with gentle to moderate winds across the offshore
waters N of 19N. Seas are 3-5 ft SE of the front to 55W, and 4-7
ft in NW-N swell W of the front. A tropical wave is in the
Tropical N Atlantic and is described more above. Farther east, a
1015 mb low is centered near 29.5N29W.
The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high
pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N45W. Fresh
to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas are on the N side of the low.
Moderate to locally fresh trades are S of 19N and W of 40W, where
seas are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the
remainder of the discussion waters, with mainly moderate seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the SW N ATLC front will remain
stationary into today, then the northern portions will shift east
as a cold front tonight and Wed. moderate to locally fresh winds
just north of the front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the
boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu
for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu
night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. High
pressure ridging and a relatively weak pressure gradient should
prevail by the weekend.
From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Wednesday, May 06, 2026 08:37:08
177
AXNT20 KNHC 060957
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed May 6 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W, S of
10N, moving slowly westward at 5-10 kt. Nearby convection is
discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.
The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63.5W, S
of 20N from near the Anegada Passage to eastern Venezuela, and
moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to 01N24W with a tropical wave to the west as
described above. The ITCZ extends from west of the tropical wave
at 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 18W
and 51W, and from 03N to 07N between 07W and 18W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
The pressure gradient between ridging that extends from well
northeast of the region in the central Atlantic southwestward to
across Florida to the northern Gulf and relatively lower
pressures in central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh E to
SE winds over the western Gulf, locally strong near Veracruz,
Mexico, along with 3-5 ft seas. In the eastern Gulf, gentle to
moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. No significant convection
is noted over the basin.
For the forecast, high pressure over the NE Gulf with lower
pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE
winds in the western Gulf and gentle to moderate winds in the
eastern Gulf through tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong
near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings. Similar winds will
pulse from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico into early today. A weak
cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu
morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as
a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across
the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another weak front may try
to move into the northern Gulf waters by the end of the weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to
support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-cetral
Caribbean including the Gulf of Venezuela, and seas of 6-8 ft.
Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 3-5 ft seas. The
first tropical wave of the season has moved into the eastern
Caribbean and is described more above. Moderate to fresh winds and
3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to
18N, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere in
the basin. No significant convection is noted over the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic
high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South
America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the
south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the
rest of the week and into the weekend, with similar conditions
expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades are
expected across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1014 mb low pressure near 32.5N61.5W extends a slow moving cold
front through 31N61W to 26N73W then continuing as a stationary
front to 1015 mb low pressure near the northern Bahamas at 27N77W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front to
the east of 68W. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and seas
of 5-7 ft prevail in the SE quadrant of the low. A tight pressure
gradient is present in the far NE tropical Atlantic with fresh to
strong winds and 6-9 ft seas noted from near the Madeira Islands
southwestward to a surface trough analyzed from 30N32W to 24N32W.
Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic, including the SW N Atlantic and Tropical N Atlantic
offshore marine zones, with locally fresh trades south of 15N and
west of 40W. Seas are 5-7 ft across that potential area of locally
fresh trades and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds in the SE
quadrant of the low will impact the waters just south of 31N and
east of the front through this morning as the low slowly shifts
northeast. The northern portion of the front will slowly progress
east as a cold front while the southern portion gradually
dissipates. Another weak cold front will move off northern Florida
Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the
northern waters through Sat. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh
off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this
weekend. Winds may freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of
another front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be
in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet
conditions across the area.
From Mike Powell@1:2320/106 to All on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 08:00:16
625
AXNT20 KNHC 121026
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue May 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave has its axis near 30W from 02S to 10N, and is
moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
ongoing from 03S to 13N between 20W and 37W.
A tropical wave is inland Venezuela with axis near 62W extending
southward from 15N. This wave is moving westward at 5-10 kt.
There is no convection associated with it in the SE Caribbean.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends
from 00N33W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 01S to 05N between 38W and 52W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to the
western Bay of Campeche this morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE
winds are occurring behind the front, except for fresh to strong N
winds occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer
pass. Light to gentle winds are ahead of the front. Slight seas
prevail across the Gulf, except for moderate seas to 6 ft offshore Veracruz.
For the forecast, the front will steadily move southeastward and
extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche
later this morning, then stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds will
be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front,
except for fresh to locally strong offhsore Veracruz, Mexico
through early this evening. High pressure and quiescent conditions
will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold
front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E
Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, SE winds are forecast to reach mainly
fresh speeds over the western half of the basin Sat.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong
trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to
southwest Caribbean. Winds are locally near gale-force in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and
moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and
eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores
High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to
force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the central basin
through the weekend, with the strongest winds being offshore
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh
trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters
through Sat night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the
tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into early Sun.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak cold front extends from 31N73W to NE Florida near 30N81W this
morning. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the
Gulf of Mexico result in isolated to widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of
68W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the
influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 22N. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend along
30N and become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of
our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be
fresh to locally strong west of the front, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to continue to occur along the front.
Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic
from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W
Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning.
S winds ahead of the front and north of 27N will be fresh to strong.
$$
Ramos
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (1:2320/106)
From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Thursday, May 14, 2026 07:59:47
622
AXNT20 KNHC 141101
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from
01N to 13N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is
in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of
Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color
imagery. Isolated showers are near and along the wave axis from 02N to 05N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 01N
to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. See the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section below for convection near the southern portion of this wave.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
06N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N23W, then breaks
due to the tropical wave near 24W, and continues at 04N25W to 01N34W
to just west of the other wave near 01N45W and to just inland Brazil
near 02N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within
240 nm north of the ITCZ between 44W-51W and within 180 nm north of
the ITCZ between 36W-44W.
...GULF OF Mexico...
A weak stationary front extends southwestward from low pressure
of 1008 mb that is located east of central Florida near 29N80W to
southwest Florida, and continues to just northeast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Isolated showers are southeast of the frontal boundary.
The activity becomes scattered in coverage across the Straits of
Florida. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high pressure
system and a continental dry airmass. The related weak pressure
gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, the entire frontal boundary will slowly move
southeastward and stall over the Straits of Florida today and lose
definition through Fri. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the
basin will maintain rather quiet conditions throughout today.
Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf tonight
and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are
forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half
of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure
gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high
pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The interaction between strong high pressure centered well north
of the basin over the central Atlantic, with relatively lower
pressures in northern South America is supporting a pressure
gradient that is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south-
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 6 to 8
ft are outside the Gulf of Venezuela per an overnight altimeter
satellite data pass. Overnight scatterometer satellite data
indicates moderate to fresh trades across north-central, eastern
and southwestern portions of the sea while light to gentle winds
and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will support
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the
strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the
forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at
night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will
impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through late Sun, then
begin to subside on Mon.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1007 mb low
that is centered near 32N75W to a 1008 mb low at 29N80W, and
continues southwestward to inland Florida near Vero Beach.
Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid to upper-level trough
across the same area as the front. Very dry sinking air with
northwest flow aloft is moving across most of the western half of
the basin as the trough advances eastward. To the east of trough,
an area of numerous moderate to strong convection is evident north
of 27N between 65W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 22N to 27N between 65W and 73W, and also
from 22N to 27N between 73W and 80W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted elsewhere south of 30N and west of about
58W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of about 27N
between 63W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft as noted
by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the described area, and by an
overnight altimeter satellite pass. A portion of a stationary
front is along 31N between 51W and 56W. Isolated showers are
possible along and near the frontal boundary.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a
rather broad high pressure ridge axis. Moderate to fresh southeast
to south winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are south of 28N and between
55W and 75W, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in long-
period east swell south of 16N between 55W and 60W.
The pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb high pressure
center centered well north of the Azores and lower pressures in
western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough
seas roughly from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Over the rest of the
central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and
between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough
seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate
seas are noted.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern
Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast today. The cold front will extend from
near 31N69W to 26N72W and as a weakening stationary front to near
the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to 26N70W
early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from near
31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the area
shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected over the central and eastern waters N
of about 27N through Fri while gradually lifting N of the area.
From Mike Powell@1:2320/107 to All on Friday, May 15, 2026 09:24:43
511
AXNT20 KNHC 151006
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri May 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, south of 12N,
moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry
environment, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W, south of 12N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted near the wave axis.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 02N30W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is present south of 07N and E of 27W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Continental high pressure of 1017 mb centered S of Louisiana
dominates the basin, with a dissipating cold front entering the
far NW Gulf. Winds are mainly light to gentle and anticyclonic,
but moderate S winds are present in the NW Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3
ft in the NE basin and 2 to 4 ft in the SW. Dry air is in place
and no convection is occurring.
For the forecast, the weak cold front will dissipate over the NE
Gulf today. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate into early next
week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient
will tighten and SE winds will increase to moderate to fresh over
the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front has stalled in the NW Caribbean from western Cuba to
near Cozumel, and associated convection has diminished. The only
remaining convection in the basin is within 90 nm of the coast of
Panama, where the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is aiding in
thunderstorm development. The pressure gradient between high
pressure centered E of Bermuda and low pressure over northern
Colombia is leading to strong E winds in the central and southern
Caribbean, highest offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Rough seas are also present where the strong winds are ongoing.
For the remainder of the basin, aside from the NW, moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. In the NW basin, mainly
gentle E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are present.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters,
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through
Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the
tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to subside.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front has stalled from just W of Bermuda to the Florida
Straits. Numerous moderate convection is N of 26N, E of the front
to 65W. Winds in this zone of convection are fresh to strong out
of the SW, and seas are rough. Elsewhere N of 20N, mainly moderate
E winds and moderate seas dominate. To the S of 20N, fresh trades
and rough seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into the weekend. Some fresh to strong SW winds E of
the boundary N of 28N will lift N of the region later today,
allowing rough seas to diminish. Thereafter, mainly tranquil
marine conditions with moderate easterly winds will prevail
through early next week.