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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 05, 2026 06:02:30
    ACUS11 KWNS 050602
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050601=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0101 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

    Areas affected...Northeast OK into northwest AR and far southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 050601Z - 050800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will remain possible
    overnight.

    DISCUSSION...An elevated storm cluster has recently shown some signs
    of organization across northeast OK, with convection increasing
    along both a developing cold pool and gust front, and within a warm
    advection regime near the OK/MO/AR border region. This cluster is
    being aided by a strong low-level jet, which should help to maintain
    this cluster as it moves southeastward overnight.=20

    Steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed on regional 00Z soundings),
    MUCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear will
    support some hail potential with the strongest embedded updrafts,
    though the ongoing cluster/linear mode may mitigate hail potential
    to some extent. Severe wind potential is also uncertain, due to the
    elevated nature of the ongoing convection. However, given the
    presence of a surface cold pool and sharp pressure rises (2-3
    mb/hour) behind the gust front noted on Mesonet observations in
    northeast OK, locally damaging wind could also accompany this system
    as it moves southeastward.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 05/05/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!81H7OLMkZ41rSGuR9Zo-CmhWH3EXIwyadUxIAnRKJKEsS2Ul1XvHopeCXZ8XarS2sIYERO6IS= NuI9wv4QmCvuYaJLVE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37099541 36769396 36279245 35969268 35609313 35379404
    35729464 36029506 36249525 36699553 37099541=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)