ACUS11 KWNS 050231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050231=20
INZ000-ILZ000-050430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Illinois...Far Western Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 050231Z - 050430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat may continue across eastern
Illinois for a couple more hours, and could also affect far western
Indiana. The severe threat area should remain relatively confined,
and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...The latest RAP has an axis of moderate instability
located from north-central Missouri east-northeastward into
Illinois, where MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1800 J/kg range. Convection
has recently initiated along the far eastern edge of the stronger
instability in central Illinois. The storms are being supported by
low-level warm advection and may persist for a couple more hours.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear, evident
on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will likely support an isolated large hail
threat. However, instability drops off quickly with eastward extent,
suggesting that any severe threat should be relatively short-lived.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8WpLdnFIptq62Nx15HvwXu-AFIJdsfzXbyNyZaCwKNGeCnGSbhcycbzhgGL2NXiU5cupVww3M= inzKGhXY5gq8CPS98M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39198698 38648798 38858862 39758912 40898904 41158774
40788697 39198698=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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