ACUS11 KWNS 050153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050153=20
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas into western Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 050153Z - 050400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...One or more clusters of strong to severe storms may
develop this evening and spread eastward with a risk of damaging
winds and hail. A WW is possible.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the central Plains, evening RADAR
and surface observations showed high-based convection and outflow
moving eastward across central KS. Most of this activity initiated
several hours ago in much drier air west of the primary dryline and
cold front over central KS. Likely tied to a subtle mid-level
trough, this activity is beginning to encroach on the western
fringes of the relatively better surface moisture near I-35. While
dewpoints are not overly robust (50s F), steep mid-level lapse rates
were supporting 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Additional ascent from the
shortwave and an increasing nocturnal low-level jet (evident on VADs
farther south) may support an increase in storm coverage over the
next few hours.=20

Lightning has increased on several weak updrafts over the last hour.
Current expectations are for the weaker updrafts currently ongoing
to gradually intensify, with additional storm development taking
place in proximity to associated outflow as convection moves into
the more unstable air mass. This should favor upscale growth into
one or more clusters with time. Steep lapse rates and 25-40 kt of
deep-layer shear could support an organized cluster capable of hail
initially, but with an increased risk of damaging gusts with time.
Given the potential for increasing severe potential, a WW is being
considered, though the exact timing remains unclear. Convective
trends will be monitored over the coming hours for potential watch
issuance.

..Lyons/Hart.. 05/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ZZZgJoC83mZKHVEOf14Vy5m1A0LwuSe93pfSQZKBpEMWqefr_ntJXYKX3IOCLzOpBI8AMPz4= Rccuma54dzHI8c6V6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37649868 39199846 39689611 39539444 38969368 38519358
38069359 37479386 37119414 36889465 36839547 36809639
36829706 36849760 36899811 36939835 37649868=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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