ACUS11 KWNS 042151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042150=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-042315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0639
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of western and central Oklahoma and into
western North Texas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 042150Z - 042315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells are possible this afternoon and
evening with a risk for hail (some 2+ inch) and damaging winds. The
need for a watch is unclear, but will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, visible imagery showed high-based
cumulus towers deepening along the dryline across portions of
western OK and western North TX. Ample heating, despite some cirrus
has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 90s F resulting
in moderate destabilization (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Ascent from an
approaching shortwave trough and continued heating along the dryline
should remove remaining inhibition, allowing isolated storm
development over the next few hours across western OK and western
North TX.

Despite the somewhat limited buoyancy and marginal surface dewpoints
(mid-50s to near 60 F), veering and strengthening flow with height
beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow will support supercells as the
primary storm mode. Isolated large to very large hail will be the
main risk with the stronger storms. Relatively high LCLs around 2000
m and the steep lapse rates in the low levels would also likely
support strong downdrafts capable of severe gusts with any
established storms.

The primary uncertainty remains the coverage and intensity of any
storms that develop. High LFC heights (3-4 km) and strong dry air
entrainment suggest storms will be slow to evolve and strengthen.
However, the environment is supportive of a conditional significant
hail risk given the supercell storm mode. Given this, isolated
storms are expected, suggesting a WW is unlikely. However, should
sufficient coverage of supercells develop, a WW could be needed.
Convective trends will be monitored closely into this evening.

..Lyons/Hart.. 05/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9BU0O9_AdP9D-VNqO9nAYt1ecUF-gGn5A0nBPoWgz2DPk5o5AeECzlXT1C3B_ERg-iHgLVPId= NNB-okQGTdqYVyS98A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 35099934 36009878 36619786 36529624 36009576 35319571
34819588 34149635 33859689 33629733 33389841 33379938
33379978 33470009 33630031 33930029 34369996 35099934=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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