From Mike Powell@1:2320/106 to All on Monday, May 04, 2026 10:05:12
994
AXNT20 KNHC 040945
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon May 4 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The tropical wave is along 45W, from 10N southward, moving west
at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the wave axis. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry
environment which inhibits other impacts.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to near
02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to 00N41W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 18W and 26W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the
Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found N
of the front affecting the SW Florida offshore waters and the
Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found
south of 27.5N, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz.
Seas within these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken today.
Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front through today.
Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf
Tue night into Thu. A quiet period is expected to start by the end
of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central
Caribbean, except for strong wind over the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore Colombia. Seas within these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle
to moderate E to SE winds prevail over the NW part of the basin
along with seas 2 to 4 ft.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh
trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the
next several days. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift
across the western Caribbean through Tue. SE winds over the Gulf
of Honduras will increase up to strong speeds Tue through Fri.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A stationary front extends from 31N64W to the Florida Straits.
Recent satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N
to NE winds north of the front, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere
across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure
prevails, anchored by 1019 mb high pressure located near 27N56W.
To the east, a 1012 mb low pressure north of the area and a
surface trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north
of 27N between 20W and 31W. The pressure gradient between these
features combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting
an area of moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas between W
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W today. The
low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of
Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the
central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds north of the front through today.
Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent Tue
through Thu. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night
and steadily move eastward through the end of the week.