ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF TEXAS
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible across parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, as well as from west-central
Texas to the central Gulf Coast, mainly Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...West-central TX into the Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...
A substantial buoyancy reservoir is expected to persist from parts
of central/south TX toward the lower MS Valley on Wednesday. Due to
substantial early-week convection, considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the potential for an ongoing isolated severe threat in the
morning, and the location of the composite front/outflow and
potential redevelopment during the afternoon and evening.

With favorable instability and deep-layer shear, the environment
will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, including
potential for large hail and locally damaging wind. Large-scale
ascent is likely to be displaced north of the primary surface
boundary and strongest instability, so storm coverage remains
uncertain, but isolated supercells and/or small clusters will be
possible along/south of the front. An increase in severe
probabilities may eventually be needed across parts of this region,
depending on observational and guidance trends regarding boundary
placement and anticipated storm coverage.

...Allegheny Plateau to the Mid Atlantic...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the Midwest toward the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. An attendant
surface low will move from the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva
region, with trailing front extending southwestward into parts of
the Southeast, Carolinas, and Virginia by afternoon. The expectation
for substantial early-day cloudiness and precipitation continues to
result in uncertainty regarding potential for appreciable
destabilization during the afternoon. If sufficient destabilization
can occur, then favorable large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear
related to the approaching shortwave trough could support organized
storms, with a threat of damaging wind and possibly some hail.

Due to the lingering uncertainties regarding destabilization, a
broad Level 1/Marginal Risk is maintained with this outlook. An
eventual increase in severe probabilities will be possible for parts
of the region, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280728
SWODY3
SPC AC 280727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Probabilities for severe storms Thursday through Thursday night
appear less than 5 percent.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the Great Lakes region. In its wake split westerlies will
remain broadly confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a short
wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern Pacific.
Further suppression of subtropical ridging centered across southern
Mexico appears probable Thursday through Thursday night, but short
wave ridging may persist to the east of the southern Rockies,
downstream of the subtropical perturbation.

Model spread remains sizable concerning the evolution and motion of
the subtropical perturbation, as well as developments within a
branch of westerlies to the north, emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific. However, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging
is likely to be maintained across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley into Southeast. While the frontal zone on the
leading edge of this air mass advances away from much of the
Atlantic Seaboard, it is generally forecast to stall across northern
Florida through the northern Gulf or Gulf coast vicinity. More
uncertainty exists, due to model spread, whether it will make
further progress southward through the Texas Big Bend vicinity and
coastal plain, or redevelop northward a bit, north of the coastal
plain and Pecos Valley.

Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin
and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late
Thursday night. However, it remains unclear if elevated
destabilization will become supportive of a risk for severe hail,
before convection becomes increasingly widespread.

Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin
into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281931
SWODY3
SPC AC 281930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
southwest and south-central Texas on Thursday.

...Southwest into central TX...
A mid/upper-level low initially off of the Baja California coast is
forecast to eject eastward as a shortwave across northern Mexico,
and approach Far West Texas late in the period. A belt of moderate
to strong midlevel westerlies will be maintained downstream of this
system across much of TX. Easterly post-frontal low-level flow will
maintain relatively favorable moisture across southwest TX, though
somewhat weaker midlevel lapse rates (compared to previous days) may
limit MUCAPE to the 1000-2000 J/kg range. While weaker than previous
days, this buoyancy magnitude would still be conditionally favorable
for organized convection, given the presence of moderate to strong
deep-layer shear.

Details of storm coverage and evolution through the period remain
uncertain. Relatively vigorous elevated convection could support
some isolated hail potential, especially if early-day storms can be
maintained through the day, or with any diurnal surface-based
development. Storm coverage will likely tend to increase by Thursday
night, in response to the approaching shortwave trough. While
convective mode may quickly become complex late in the period, some
threat for hail or localized severe gusts could accompany the
strongest storms. Given the potential for one or more rounds of deep
convection within a relatively favorable environment, a Level
1/Marginal Risk has been included for southwest TX and vicinity.

..Dean.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND VICINITY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida
Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output suggests that there will be substantive
amplification within the split westerlies emanating from the
mid-latitude Pacific during this period, with ridging building to
the west of 140W longitude into the higher latitudes of western
Canada, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies
and northern U.S. Rockies. Within this ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the west of
the U.S. Pacific coast, while broad upper ridging gradually builds
across the subtropical eastern Pacific.

Downstream, a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, enhanced across the Great Plains into
middle Mississippi Valley, in the wake of short wave troughing
forecast to dig to the southwest of an elongated area of lower
heights slowly shifting eastward through the Ontario/Quebec/Great
Lakes and Northeast vicinity.

A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday is likely to undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests a notable lingering impulse may support a developing wave
along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas coastal areas
through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday afternoon through
Friday night.

...Middle Texas coastal plain through Florida Big Bend region...
Large-scale forcing for ascent aided by warm advection along and to
the cool side of the front may support a swath of mostly weak
thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern Atlantic
coast during this period. Among other model output, forecast
soundings from the NAM and RRFS indicate thermodynamic profiles with
little potential for severe hail and/or wind. One exception may be
across middle Texas coastal areas, where loaded gun type soundings,
probably based above a stable surface-based layer, may become
conducive to supercell development in the presence of strong shear,
as mid-level forcing for ascent overspreads the region by late
afternoon.

Late Friday evening across southeastern-most parishes of Louisiana,
through the Florida Big Bend region by 12Z Saturday, forecast
soundings suggest modest boundary-layer destabilization is possible
in a pre-frontal corridor coincident with strengthening deep-layer
shear and enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs. It is
possible that this will become supportive of supercells, accompanied
by the risk for a tornado or two, in addition to large hail and
localized damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291933
SWODY3
SPC AC 291932

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COAST AND THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across the
middle Texas coast, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida
Big Bend region Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A subtropical shortwave trough will move out of central Texas and
parallel the Gulf Coast region. The shortwave trough will lose
amplitude with time, but a northern stream shortwave trough will dig southeastward and phase with the southern wave. The mid-level jet
will intensify as this process occurs. A surface boundary will be
placed roughly along the Gulf Coast with the degree of rich inland
moisture uncertain.

...Middle Texas Coast...
As the shortwave trough progresses eastward towards coastal Texas,
lift will be favorably timed with afternoon heating. The main
question will be how far inland, if at all, the moist airmass will
be by that time. The ECMWF is more aggressive with its southward
push of the cold front than the NAM. Should the front stay inland,
mid-level ascent will likely promote a storm or two along the
boundary. Strong effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
moderate buoyancy suggests supercells would be possible. Large hail
and damaging winds would be the main hazards.

...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...
Though the shortwave trough is expected to become less amplified,
the mid-level jet will still strengthen with time as another
shortwave trough digging southeastward from the central Plains will
phase with the southern stream trough. Subject to the same surface
boundary placement uncertainty as farther west, storms could
potentially develop after 00Z in southeastern Louisiana with
additional storms possible later in the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend
region. Supercells/linear segments are possible. Large hail and
damaging winds would be a concern, but an increase in low-level
hodograph curvature also suggests a tornado or two could also occur
with the most organized storms.

..Wendt.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300729
SWODY3
SPC AC 300728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN GEORGIA....

...SUMMARY...
Strong storms may impact parts of northern Florida and southern
Georgia Saturday with potential for some of this activity to become
severe.

...Discussion...
Within amplified ridging across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific by
the outset of the period, models indicate that a mid-level high may
begin to form over the northeastern Pacific, roughly near 50N/140W,
while an evolving low to its south digs offshore of the California
coast. Downstream flow is forecast to remain broadly confluent
across and east of the Rockies, with one notable short wave
perturbation pivoting east of the Ozark Plateau through the Mid
Atlantic coast by 12Z Sunday. This likely will be preceded by a
shearing impulse, emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific
today, across the eastern Gulf Coast states through southern Mid
Atlantic by late Saturday afternoon.

In lower-levels, models indicate that these developments will be
accompanied significant surface cyclogenesis offshore of the
Atlantic Seaboard. It remains a bit unclear whether this will
initiate from a developing frontal wave initially offshore of the
Carolina coast, before migrating northeastward, or in association
with continuing development of a wave initially forming Friday
near/offshore of the lower to middle Texas coast.

Regardless, in association with the wave approaching from the Gulf,
a corridor of pre-frontal boundary-layer destabilization appears
possible across the Florida Big Bend vicinity through southern
Georgia/northern Florida Atlantic coastal areas by mid to late
Saturday afternoon. Coinciding with strengthening southwesterly to
westerly wind fields, including 30-70+ kts in the 850-500 mb layer,
if this occurs, it is possible that the environment could become
conducive to severe thunderstorm development. This may include
evolving supercell structures, and perhaps a small organizing
convective system.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301929
SWODY3
SPC AC 301928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHERN
GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to marginally severe storms are possible in southern Georgia
into northern/central Florida.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to pivot
through the Southeast. A surface cold front will move southward into
the Florida Peninsula.

...Southern Georgia into Florida...
Rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is
expected to exist ahead of the southward-moving cold front.
Mid-level ascent will be strongest across southern Georgia and North
Florida, diminishing with southward extent. Strong flow within the
850-500 mb layer will help to organize convection. Areas that
receive greater surface heating could allow a few strong to severe
storms to develop during the late morning/afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be strong, but will also be parallel to the front. At
least some activity may have a tendency to be undercut. Both
supercells and small clusters will be possible. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary concerns. Low-level shear will be
greater in the morning and decrease with time as the low-level jet
moves northeast, leading to a more uncertain tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010618
SWODY3
SPC AC 010617

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of northern
Missouri, southeast Iowa and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Northwesterly flow aloft will persist across the region on the back
side of an eastern U.S. upper trough. Cold temperatures aloft (near
-20 C at 500 mb) will foster steep midlevel lapse rates and support
moderate MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. However, boundary
layer moisture is expected to be limited by a prior cold front
passage as modified Gulf moisture remains well offshore. Surface
dewpoints are generally forecast to be in the 50s as temperatures
warm into the 70s. Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon within the unstable airmass amid strong west/northwesterly
deep-layer flow. Some forecast guidance depicts modest capping
across the region while large-scale ascent remains nebulous. If
storms can develop and be maintained, a risk for strong wind gusts
and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011926
SWODY3
SPC AC 011925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
MID-MISSOURI AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across much of the central/eastern CONUS
will continue on Sunday. Within the broader cyclone, shortwave
troughs will rotate into the northern Plains and lower
Missouri/mid-Mississippi Valleys. A surface high will continue to
shift southeastward allowing some southerly return flow into the
southern Plains/Mid-South into parts of Missouri/Illinois. As the
northern Plains trough intensifies, a weak surface boundary will
move southeastward into the Midwest.

...Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys...
Moisture return ahead of the weak surface front is not expected to
be significant. The initial return flow pattern may allow low 50s F
dewpoints to reach parts of Missouri/Illinois. Despite the limited
moisture, temperatures aloft will be quite cold (nearing -20 C at
500 mb). At least a narrow zone of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE appears
possible. Storm coverage may remain isolated, but there is
reasonable confidence in development given surface convergence and
aid from a passing shortwave trough by late afternoon. Where storms
can develop, 40-50 kt of effective shear, a well-mixed boundary
layer, and the steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk for
large hail and severe wind gusts. The most notable change with this
outlook is to shift probabilities southward given the latest
guidance trends.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020627
SWODY3
SPC AC 020626

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Eastern KS to OH...

A deepening upper trough will develop southward into the Upper
Midwest on Monday/Monday night. Stronger height falls will remain
confined to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity, with more modest
height falls into the Mid-MS Valley near/after 00z. At the surface,
low pressure is forecast to move across Ontario and Quebec, while a
trailing cold front develops southward across the Upper MS Valley
during the day, and becomes oriented from southern Lower MI to
eastern KS by early Tuesday. Gulf moisture return will remain
limited, with generally 50s to near 60 F dewpoints expected in a
narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. Cool temperatures aloft
will support steep lapse rates across the region and MLCAPE around
1000-1500 J/kg is forecast during the afternoon into the nighttime
hours from KS into portions of the Mid-MS Valley and eastward into IN/OH/extreme southern Lower MI.

Capping and weak forcing for ascent may limit thunderstorm
development across the warm sector through peak heating. However, as
a southwesterly low-level jet increases around/after 00z, modest
height falls overspread the region, and the surface cold front
develops southward toward the corridor of modest boundary layer
moisture, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may initiate.
Effective shear around 35+ kt will aid in organized storm
structures, and isolated large hail and locally strong gusts are
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest late Monday afternoon into Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A split flow pattern aloft will evolve on Monday. Cyclonic flow will
sag southward from the northern U.S. into the Upper Midwest and
parts of the Midwest. On the West Coast, an upper low will become
more of an open wave and move into the lower Colorado Valley. In
response to the intensifying upper low near the Upper Great Lakes, a
stronger cold front will move into the Lower Great Lakes, Midwest,
and central Plains.

...Eastern Kansas into central Ohio...
With an additional day of return flow, low-level moisture should be
increased from Sunday. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable,
but low 60s are not out of the question in eastern Kansas/western
Missouri. Models differ in the intensity/placement of the
subtropical jet stream leading to differences in where the surface cyclone/front will be positioned by late afternoon. Mid-level ascent
along the boundary will be weak through most of the day with some
increase noted mainly after 00Z. Even so, surface heating will be
sufficient to reach convective temperatures in parts of
Illinois/Indiana/Ohio. Farther west, mid/upper clouds may be more
prevalent and afternoon development, uncertain as it is, will be
tied to mesoscale features such as the triple point. During the
evening, an intensifying low-level jet should promote greater storm development/coverage along the boundary. Storms would be capable of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030642
SWODY3
SPC AC 030641

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Monday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030647
SWODY3
SPC AC 030646

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND ARKANSAS...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...

Deep-layer southwesterly flow will increase across the southern
Plains to the Ohio Valley and Northeast as the upper trough over the
Upper Midwest and northern/central Plains and an upper trough over
the Southwest begin to phase. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from southern Lower MI to northern OK Tuesday
morning. This boundary will develop slowly southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from NY to the Mid-South to north-central
TX by Wednesday morning. During the afternoon, a dryline will be
oriented across central TX. Ahead of the surface front and east of
the dryline, increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
F dewpoints across the Sabine Valley into AR. The surface front and
dryline will serve as a focus for strong to severe thunderstorm
development during the afternoon/evening.

...OK/TX to the Mid-South...

Convective development is likely near the surface triple point and
cold front by 00z as forcing for ascent impinges on the moist and
moderately unstable airmass in the eastern OK/AR vicinity.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase through the evening as a
modest low-level jet develops. Any discrete convection that develops
will pose a risk for large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.
However, convection may become linear along the surface front rather
quickly, with an accompanying increase in damaging wind potential.

Severe potential along the dryline across parts of OK/TX is more uncertain/conditional. Capping and nebulous large-scale ascent
(especially with southwest extent across TX) may suppress
convection. However, if a storm can develop within the favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, large hail will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031932
SWODY3
SPC AC 031931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
Broad troughing within northern parts of the CONUS will begin to
phase with the southwestern trough on Tuesday. A strong mid-level
jet will extend from the Southwest into the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast. At the surface, a low pressure system initially in
eastern Oklahoma will lose definition through the period. A cold
front will extend from the upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-South and
southern Oklahoma by the afternoon. A dryline will extend from the
surface low into central/southwest Texas.

...Southern Plains/Mid-South...
The surface low/triple point and the cold front will generally be
the main focus for convective development around late afternoon.
While front will have modest southward progress through the day, it
does appear that linear modes are more likely within the Mid-South
region. From southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, shear vectors
will have a more favorable orientation to the surface trough/dryline
and discrete storms are possible until the front pushes farther
south. Large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes would be possible
early in the convective cycle before a gradual transition to a
damaging wind threat occurs with upscale growth. The latest NAM
output has come in notably cooler than other guidance on account of
more substantial cloud cover and faster front progression. A minor southeastward shift of severe probabilities was made to account for
lesser destabilization occurring with northward extent.

Along the dryline in North/Central Texas, storm initiation is much
less certain on account of weak large-scale ascent. Should a storm
develop, large hail and severe winds gusts would be possible given
steep lapse rates and long hodographs.

..Wendt.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040620
SWODY3
SPC AC 040619

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS
INTO PARTS OF ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Texas to the Lower MS and TN Valleys...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Rockies to the southern Plains on Wednesday. Strong southwesterly
deep-layer flow will overspread the southern Plains into much of the
southern and eastern U.S. ahead of this feature. At the surface, a
cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley southwestward to
southern AR Wednesday morning, with the western extent of the front
sloped across northeast to southwest TX. Ahead of the front, rich
Gulf moisture will be in place with dewpoints generally in the mid
60s to near 70 across TX into the Lower MS Valley, decreasing with
northeast extent. This will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization ahead of the front from parts of TX into MS where
MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg is possible. Instability will be
somewhat less with northeast extent across the TN Valley.

Storm mode is somewhat uncertain Wednesday afternoon. If discrete
cells can develop, steep lapse rates, favorable thermodynamic, elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes
suggest supercells with an all-hazards risk will be possible.
However, given deep layer flow parallel to the surface front and a
southward progressing front, convection may tend to become linear
quickly. This would increase damaging wind potential. Given
uncertainty in storm mode, declined introducing a CIG 1 area for
hail. In general, convection should develop during the afternoon and
spread east/southeast with time through the overnight hours, with an
accompany severe risk.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041913
SWODY3
SPC AC 041912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
INTO ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Damaging winds, large hail, and a
couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will extend from upper Great
Lakes into the Southwest, with a broad zone of strong mid to high
levels southwesterlies extending from the southern Plains across the
lower to middle MS and TN Valleys. Gradual cooling aloft will occur
through the period as this upper trough proceeds gradually east. At
the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper OH Valley into
central TX during the day, and this front will surge south overnight
into the southeastern states and southern TX.

...Eastern TX into the TN Valley...
A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the cold front, with 70s F
dewpoints from TX into AL. Early day storms are likely in the warm
advection regime over parts of KY and TN, aided by southwest 850 mb
winds around 40 kt. This may temporarily stabilize these northern
areas before destabilization occurs later in the day. The strongest
heating will occur from TX into MS/AL, with MUCAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

The greatest risk area will extend from the Sabine River into MS and
northern AL late in the day, perhaps near 00Z, and into the early
evening, as storms finally break the capping inversion after a full
days heating. Deep-layer shear will be oriented mostly parallel to
the front, and low-level winds will be a bit veered with marginal
SRH values. Still, supercells may develop owing to strong effective
shear, with steep lapse rates aloft supporting hail. Damaging winds
may become an issue as storms possibly merge with bowing structures.

For northern areas from TN into KY, the risk will depend on air mass
recovery in the wake of any early day activity. Conditionally,
low-level shear may be stronger in this region, with an isolated
tornado or hail risk.

..Jewell.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050641
SWODY3
SPC AC 050640

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
across portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Gulf coast to SC...

A large upper trough will pivot over the eastern U.S. on Thursday.
Strong west/southwesterly deep-layer flow will be in place across
the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will develop south/southeast across portions of south TX, the
central Gulf coast states and the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic vicinity. A
seasonally moist airmass will be in place ahead of the boundary, and
some risk for strong to severe storms will exist near the
progressing cold front from southern MS/AL into SC.

There is some uncertainty regarding the position of the cold front
Thursday morning. The NAM is faster compared to the GFS and ECMWF. Nevertheless, rich Gulf moisture ahead of the boundary will support
at least modest destabilization. Convection will likely be ongoing
near the front Thursday morning. Redevelopment or intensification
into midday and through the afternoon appears plausible given strong
deep-layer flow within the modestly unstable airmass. Clusters and
linear convection appear most likely, with an attendant risk of
damaging wind.

...South TX...

Severe potential across south TX is uncertain and will depend on
cold frontal position Thursday morning. If southward progress of the
front is slowly, some risk of severe could develop across south TX
where 70s dewpoints and daytime heating could support strong
instability. If storms develop, a risk for hail appears possible.
However, some forecast guidance surges the cold front southward
across the region during the morning and maintains capping through
the day. Low confidence precludes severe probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051915
SWODY3
SPC AC 051914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across
portions of the central Gulf coast into South Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level speed max will move across the Southeast to Mid
Atlantic Thursday as the parent upper trough moves across the Great
Lakes and into the Northeast. A cold front will extend roughly from
the central Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast by late
afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of it.

Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday morning across much
of this region ahead of the cold front, within the 850 mb theta-e
plume. A few strong gusts will be possible. Thereafter, the rapid
progression of the upper trough will foster midlevel drying, with
veering low-level winds. As such, the greatest potential for a few
strong storms appear to be from morning through midday prior to the
front moving offshore. Forecast soundings show very strong
deep-layer shear, but also increasing midlevel subsidence which may
counteract additional late afternoon development. Any additional
late day development should be quite isolated and marginal in
nature.

..Jewell.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060624
SWODY3
SPC AC 060623

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain/limited on Friday/Friday
night.

...TX...

A compact upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico will
develop east over TX on Friday/Friday night. Ahead of this feature,
shortwave upper ridging will persist across the south-central U.S.
through at least Friday evening. Weak south/southeasterly low-level
flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across TX, supporting
modest destabilization. Most guidance depicts capping across the
region, with warm temperatures within the 850-700 mb layer noted in
forecast soundings. However, models do differ with regards to the
strength of the cap. Weak flow is also expected below 500 mb, though
veering wind profiles will result in stronger effective shear.
Thunderstorm development is uncertain, but if storms can development
and be maintained, some hail risk is possible given steep midlevel
lapse rates. Given uncertainty regarding depth and timing of
moisture return and persistent capping, will hold off from adding a
Level 1 (Marginal) risk at this time, especially as it is unclear
where the best potential would develop across TX.

..Leitman.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061932
SWODY3
SPC AC 061931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MISSOURI INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are possible on Friday from parts of Oklahoma
into Missouri. Scattered storms are also likely over much of Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A northwest flow regime will exist from the Plains into the MS
Valley on Friday as an embedded shortwave moves across the central
Plains and rapidly moves toward the TN Valley into Saturday morning.
Meanwhile, a compact upper low is forecast to move across the Rio
Grande Valley and into TX, providing cool temperatures aloft.

At the surface, a cold front will move into MO/KS and OK, which will
be situated below the cool temperature aloft. Heating/steep lapse
rates near this boundary as well as southerly winds bringing 50s and
60s F dewpoints northward will support scattered strong to severe
storms along this portion of the front. The long hodographs and
northwest flow regime suggest cells capable of hail are most likely.

To the south, bouts of thunderstorms will develop from TX eastward
toward the lower MS Valley. First, early in the day within the
moisture return/warm advection regime, then later in the day as the
upper low approaches from the west. There is a heavy convective
signal from late afternoon into the overnight across much of TX,
however, shear will be weak across most areas. At least low severe probabilities may be added in later outlooks as predictability
increases and more targeted areas can be discerned.

..Jewell.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070634
SWODY3
SPC AC 070633

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across portions of southern Kansas into northwestern and central
Oklahoma.

...KS/OK...

A midlevel shortwave trough will migrate from the central Rockies to
the Lower MS Valley on Saturday. At the surface, low pressure will
develop in response to the approaching trough in the vicinity of the
TX Panhandle. A dryline will extend southward from the low across
west TX while a warm front extends from far southern KS into
northern/central AR. Gulf moisture will spread northward across OK
to far southern KS and isolated to scattered thunderstorms may
develop by 00z. A cold front will eventually dive southward across
the central/southern Plains during the nighttime hours, but the
timing of this feature is still uncertain.

The warm sector is expected to be somewhat narrow across southern KS
and OK. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft will foster steep
midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg will be
possible. Boundary layer moisture will be somewhat limited,
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Strong heating will allow for
deep mixing, and forecast soundings indicate any storms that develop
will likely be higher-based. Effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt
will support organized convection posing a risk for hail and
damaging wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071923
SWODY3
SPC AC 071922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
across parts of the southern/central Plains, and from east Texas
into the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of the
central/eastern CONUS and Canada, a mid-level shortwave trough is
forecast to develop southeastward from the northern Rockies/High
Plains towards the central High Plains by Saturday evening. Weak lee cyclogenesis should occur over the southern/central High Plains,
with modest low-level moisture forecast to return northward across
north TX into OK to the east of a surface dryline. High-based
convection should develop Saturday afternoon across eastern CO into
western KS, with locally gusty winds possible.

A somewhat greater severe wind and hail risk should exist late
Saturday afternoon and evening across the eastern TX Panhandle,
southwest KS, and into OK where weak to locally moderate instability
should be in place. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty how
far north greater low-level moisture and related instability will
advance, but any cells that can form could pose an isolated threat
for large hail and damaging winds given sufficient deep-layer shear
for modest updraft organization. Have expanded the Marginal Risk a
bit in OK and the eastern TX Panhandle to account for potential
surface-based development along the dryline, and for a possible
cluster/MCS Saturday evening.

...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday
morning across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast. This activity
may tend to remain elevated to the north of a surface front through
Saturday morning. But, increasing potential for surface-based
thunderstorms should exist as daytime heating along/south of the
front occurs, and as a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances
eastward from east TX into the northern Gulf and vicinity. One or
more clusters may eventually evolve and pose some risk for damaging
winds as they spread east-southeastward across parts of the lower MS Valley/Southeast through the afternoon and early evening. Isolated
severe hail may also occur with somewhat more discrete convection
across portions of east TX into LA, where steeper mid-level lapse
rates and greater instability are forecast to exist.

..Gleason.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080729
SWODY3
SPC AC 080728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of west Texas
east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat is
expected to develop over parts of the eastern Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
through the central U.S. on Sunday, as a cold front advances
southward across the southern Plains. South of the front, surface
dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will contribute to moderate
instability by afternoon from a dryline in west Texas
east-northeastward across much of north-central and northeast Texas.
As surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence increases
near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the northern edge of the moist airmass during the afternoon
and evening.

Forecast soundings across parts of west and north-central Texas late
Sunday afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 2000 to 3500
J/kg range with 0-6 shear around 35 knots. This, combined with
700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, should be favorable for a
large-hail threat. In addition, steep 0-3 km lapse rates should
support an isolated wind-damage threat, especially if a cold pool
can organize. The cold front position is expected to be a bit
further south than is currently forecast. This projected position is
in relatively good agreement with the most reliable guidance, which
adds confidence in a potential severe threat area in west,
north-central and northeast Texas Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast...
Westerly mid-level flow is forecast on Sunday across the Gulf Coast
region. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the
central Gulf Coast eastward to Florida. Some solutions move a subtle
shortwave trough eastward across the Southeast on Sunday. This would
support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the
afternoon near the coast from southeast Louisiana eastward to
southern Georgia and northern Florida. Instability and deep-layer
shear is expected to be strong enough for a marginal severe threat
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe/damaging
winds appear likely Sunday afternoon and evening from parts of Texas
into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will continue advancing southeastward
Sunday from the central Plains into the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley. While west-northwesterly mid-level flow is not forecast to
be overly strong with this feature (around 30-45 kt), there should
be sufficient effective bulk shear to support organized convection.
At the surface, a cold front is expected to shift southeastward
across these regions through the day, with a seasonably moist
low-level airmass in place ahead of it. Daytime heating of this
airmass and the presence of at least modestly steepened mid-level
lapse rates (particularly across TX) should support the development
of moderate to strong instability along/ahead of the front by early
Sunday afternoon.

Thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of central/eastern OK at
the start of the period, with an isolated severe threat possible.
Current expectations are for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop along much of the length of the cold front from west TX
northeastward into southeast OK and the ArkLaTex by mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the mid-level shortwave trough
overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. While somewhat stronger
mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear may tend to remain
mostly displaced to the north of the cold front, initial multicell
clusters and embedded supercells will likely pose a threat for both
large hail and severe/damaging winds. With time, a consolidation
into one or more bowing clusters should occur, with a greater risk
for damaging winds, particularly across parts of central into
northeast TX. The Slight Risk has been expanded to account for where
confidence is greatest in scattered to potentially numerous
severe/damaging winds being realized with convection Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Farther east into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, confidence in
organized severe convection remains somewhat lower, mainly due to
uncertainty regarding sufficient instability/destabilization ahead
of the front. Any cells/clusters that can form and spread
east-southeastward could pose an isolated threat for hail and
damaging winds. The Marginal Risk has been expanded eastward and
combined with the previously separate risk area across the Gulf
Coast, where isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
along various sea breezes.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090715
SWODY3
SPC AC 090714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are expected
on Monday from parts of the central Gulf Coast states eastward to
the southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States/Carolinas...
At mid-levels, heights will fall across the Southeast on Monday, as
a trough progresses eastward into the Atlantic coastal states. At
the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
Southeast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place
inland across the central Gulf Coast and northeastward into much of
Georgia, South Carolina and far southern North Carolina. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday along
and ahead of the front, and near coastal convergence zones. Steep
low-level lapse rates and deep low-level moisture will be favorable
for isolated severe gusts associated with multicells that develop in
the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091906
SWODY3
SPC AC 091905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts are possible
Monday afternoon across parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast Monday afternoon...
A surface cold front will move southeastward into the northwest Gulf
early in the period, likely aided by outflow from D2 convection.
Farther east, the front will reach the coast of the Carolinas Monday
afternoon, and the northeast Gulf coast/north FL by late Monday
night or early Tuesday morning. Aloft, a midlevel trough will
progress eastward near the Gulf coast, in advance of the next
digging wave over the northern Plains and upper MS Valley.
Thunderstorms will be possible within the moist environment along
the front. A few strong storms/clusters with wind damage may occur
Monday afternoon along the front, where pockets of stronger surface
heating occur in cloud breaks, coincident with modest enhancement of
midlevel flow/deep-layer shear. Isolated strong storms will also be
possible along the Atlantic coast sea breeze into the FL peninsula.

...Northern Plains to Upper MS Valley Monday afternoon/night...
Low-level moisture will remain limited in advance of a midlevel
trough digging southeastward, around the northeast periphery of a
ridge over the Southwest. Deep surface mixing along the surface
front/trough could support isolated, high-based storms Monday
afternoon across ND. However, the more probable scenario will be
for a few elevated storms to form by Monday evening/night over MN
and adjacent areas of WI/IA where sufficient midlevel
moistening/ascent occurs on the east edge of the steeper midlevel
lapse rates.

..Thompson.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas into far western
Illinois.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across the
north-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley.
Ahead of the front, moisture will be somewhat limited with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F. As surface, temperatures warm
during the day, instability is expected to develop ahead of the
front. Forecasts suggest the strongest instability will be in
southeast Kansas and western Missouri, where MLCAPE could reach the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range, if the more aggressive model solutions pan
out. Increasing low-level convergence near the front Tuesday
afternoon will likely result in widely-spaced convective initiation.
Storms are expected to move east-southeastward toward the
instability axis during the late afternoon and early evening. At
this time, there are a wide range of model solutions concerning
instability. In addition, some models have a warm layer at 700 mb
near the front, which would limit severe potential. However, if an
axis of moderate instability can develop ahead of the front, and
some storms can become surface-based, then a potential will exist
for isolated severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101932
SWODY3
SPC AC 101930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from parts of southeast Kansas northeast into
southern Wisconsin.

... Overview ...

The midlevel pattern will amplify further on Tuesday as a midlevel
low and associated trough move southeast over the Upper Great Lakes
in response to a building ridge upstream. As the midlevel flow
amplifies, a jet streak will redevelop on the upshear side of the
trough, resulting in strong vertical shear across the Central US.

At the surface, a low will quickly drop southeast out of Canada,
across Wisconsin, into Lower Michigan. To the west/southwest of this
low, a cold front will quickly push south and east.


... Southeast Kansas northeast into Southern Wisconsin ...

Ahead of the aforementioned surface cold front, southerly winds on
the west side of a surface anticyclone will support northward
moisture transport across the central US. The 20260510/12Z guidance
suite shows considerable variance in the depth and quality of the
moisture return and in turn, convective coverage.

Low level convergence along the front will be greatest the closest
to the surface low. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-40Fs to
perhaps low-50Fs, a couple of thunderstorms are likely to develop
across southern Wisconsin. Convergence along the front should
decrease with southwest extent with an increasing EML/cap in the
same direction. Thus, despite better low level moisture, and in turn
buoyancy, across the Central Plains, confidence in thunderstorm
development is low. That said, the 20260510/12Z Hi-Res NAM shows
thunderstorm development all along the front from southeast Kansas
into Wisconsin. The overall kinematic environment will be favorable
for at least a few severe wind reports where ever thunderstorms
develop, and thus the Level 1/Marginal Risk has been expanded to
incorporate this potential.


... Central and South Florida ...

A post frontal airmass should be in place across the area on
Tuesday, with northerly surface winds advecting in a slightly drier
airmass. Despite that, a myriad of potential surface boundaries
(including both Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes) will be around during
the afternoon to serve as potential thunderstorm initiation
mechanisms. Although effective layer shear will be around 30 to
perhaps 40 knots, the degree of instability may limit the overall
wind threat.


... Interior Pacific Northwest ...

A few thunderstorms may develop during the late afternoon and
overnight across portions of Oregon and Washington within a belt of
strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching midlevel trough to the
west and the building ridge to the east. Although low level moisture
should remain scant, sufficient midlevel moisture should combine
with large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates to support a few
thunderstorms. Fast storm motions and steep low-to-midlevel lapse
rates may support a few severe thunderstorm wind gusts. However, the
nature of this threat is still too low to warrant unconditional
severe probabilities.

..Marsh.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians.

...Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday. At the surface, a low will move
eastward across the lower Great Lakes, as a cold front advances east-southeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s F will
contribute to weak destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE near the
instability axis is forecast to peak around 500 J/kg with 0-6 km
shear in the 25 to 35 knot range. This should support a marginal
severe threat during the afternoon as low-level lapse rates become
steep. A few isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111909
SWODY3
SPC AC 111908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible on Wednesday across the Ohio
Valley and central Appalachians as well as portions of western and
central Montana.

... Overview ...

An amplified, yet progressive, midlevel pattern will persist on
Wednesday, with a shortwave trough moving across the northern
Rockies, an amplified ridge across the central US, and an amplified
longwave trough across the East. Embedded within the eastern
longwave trough, a shortwave trough will quickly pivot through the
basal region of the longwave trough, taking on a negative tilt as it
approaches the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the forecast period.


At the surface, a low across Lower Michigan will move east across
the Great Lakes into northern New York and weaken as a new low
develops farther south along the front across the Mid-Atlantic
Region. As the initial low moves east, a surface front will also
move east across the Ohio Valley and approach the Mid-Atlantic
region by the end of the forecast period. Farther west, ahead of the
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the northern Rockies, lee
troughing will develop across the High Plains, with low-level
moisture beginning to return northward into the Central Plains.


... Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians ...

A dry airmass will be in place across the region at the start of the
forecast period in the wake of a cool, dry anticyclone from the day
before. As the anticyclone moves east off the Atlantic Coast, modest
moisture advection will develop during the late morning into early
afternoon. The 20260511/12Z guidance suite shows varying solutions
regarding the depth and quality of the moisture return, with surface
dewpoints ranging from the upper-40Fs in the drier solutions to
perhaps 60F in the more moist solutions.

The depth and quality of the low level moisture will have an impact
on the resulting degree of instability and thunderstorm
potential/coverage. That said, the degree of forcing along the
surface front should support at least a few thunderstorms despite
instability generally around 500-1000 J/kg or less. The overall
kinematic profiles would support strong, gusty winds with any
thunderstorm that can sustain itself.


... West-central Montana into Central Montana ...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will move across the area
during the forecast period. Despite very dry low levels initially,
increasing midlevel moisture and steep lapse rates may support a few
hundred joules per kilogram of MUCAPE during the late afternoon and
evening. As strong deep-layer ascent overspreads this environment a
few high-based thunderstorms may develop before the low-levels
moisten. Strong midlevel flow and a dry sub-cloud layer will support
at least a marginal threat for damaging wind gusts. One potential
negative for damaging wind gusts will be widespread cloud cover
associated with the increasing midlevel moisture that inhibits
destabilization. However, even in this scenario, gradient winds will
still pose a threat for damaging winds with any forced convection.

..Marsh.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120701
SWODY3
SPC AC 120700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible
on Thursday from parts of north-central Oklahoma into central Kansas
and far southern Nebraska.

...North-central Oklahoma/Central Kansas/Far Southern Nebraska...
At mid-levels, a shortwave ridge will move eastward into the Ozarks
and mid to upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday, as a shortwave
trough passes through the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough over the
southern and central Plains, low-level moisture advection will take
place. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 60s F
over much of Oklahoma northward into central and northern Kansas.
Along this corridor, moderate instability is expected to develop by
afternoon with MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In
addition to the instability, forecast soundings have a capping
inversion in the 850 and 700 mb layer. In the early evening,
large-scale ascent will move across the central Plains, helping to
weaken the cap for a few hours. If convective initiation can take
place, an isolated severe storm would be possible. 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 40 knot range along with steep mid-level lapse rates could
be enough for hail and isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121931
SWODY3
SPC AC 121929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday over
the central Great Plains. Large to very large hail and severe gusts
will likely be the primary severe hazards.

...Central Great Plains into the lower MO Valley...
Weak elevated showers/storms will likely be ongoing over eastern KS
Thursday morning owing to warm advection as low-level southerly flow strengthens. A mid-level disturbance is forecast to move from the
CO Front Range to the mid MS Valley during the period invoking
poleward moisture transport via southerly flow. Model guidance
suggests surface dewpoints to rise into the 60s deg F in an narrow
tongue along and east of I-35 in OK and I-135 in central KS. An
elevated mixed layer featuring steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (in
excess of 8 deg C/km) will contribute towards maintaining a cap
through mid afternoon as a moderately to locally very unstable
airmass develops east of a dryline. Strong heating and large-scale
ascent associated with the eastward-migrating impulse will act to
erode convective inhibition. Isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible during the 21-00 UTC period. Forecast soundings favor
supercells with mainly a risk for large to very large hail. Severe
gusts are also possible and would likely focus if small clustering
can occur during the early evening as this activity moves east
towards the lower MO Valley. A south-southwesterly LLJ is forecast
to slightly veer and favor strengthening warm-air advection Thursday
night into the lower MO Valley, perhaps facilitating a lingering
risk for wind/hail and/or additional elevated thunderstorms posing
an overnight hail threat.

..Smith.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130730
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the central Plains and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys...
Mid-level flow will be westerly over the central U.S. on Friday.
Within the flow, a subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move
across the central Plains. At the surface, low-level moisture
advection will result in a pocket of moist air from the central
Plains eastward into the lower Missouri Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s F. Within this
moist airmass, moderate instability is expected to be in place by
afternoon. A dryline is forecast to develop on the western edge of
the low-level moisture, from north-central Oklahoma into central
Kansas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening.
Additional storms are expected to form further east into eastern
Kansas and Missouri, along the northern edge of a low-level jet.

Late Friday afternoon, forecast soundings in the Kansas City area
show a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe storms. MLCAPE
is forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
in the 30 to 35 knot range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and wind damage. An isolated severe
threat may also develop eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestward into north-central Oklahoma. Instability is expected
to be somewhat weaker in these two areas, which should keep any
severe threat more isolated and marginal.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible
on Friday in parts of the Midwest, central Plains and lower Missouri
Valley.

...Lower Missouri Valley and Midwest...
Multiple foci for severe storm development are evident in
medium-range model guidance, with considerable variance in the
positioning of these features, Friday and Friday night. A cluster of
storms may be ongoing in the morning hours over the Midwest or
MO/central MS Valleys, further complicating the severe risk. A cold
front is forecast to sag southward across the Midwest and central
Plains into parts of southern NE and northeastern CO. Continued
low-level moisture advection along and north of the boundary will
likely result in adequate destabilization for thunderstorms. While
displaced from the stronger flow aloft near a northern stream upper
trough, enough mid-level flow is evident on area model soundings to
support supercells and organized clusters, some of which may be
behind the front. Hail and damaging gusts are possible with one or
more clusters of strong to severe storms.

Farther south, into KS and western MO, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
are likely to be in place ahead of northern portions of a dryline
and surface trough. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form to
the east of the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening
with steep mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. Additional storms are expected to form further east along the
northern edge of the low-level jet. Located between the primary
upper troughs, mid-level flow is weaker here (20-30 kt at 500 mb),
suggesting a messy storm mode, but with some supercell potential.
Hail and damaging gusts are possible with any supercells or clusters
that develop/spread eastward into the evening and overnight.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Near the dryline and lee low, from eastern CO/western KS into
western OK, deep mixing and ascent from the approach of the southern
stream shortwave trough could support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon. Uncertainty on moisture
depth is high, with some guidance showing modest buoyancy atop a
deeply mixed boundary layer. Should this occur, weak 500 mb winds
could allow for a few multicell clusters with damaging gusts across
the central and southern Plains.

..Lyons.. 05/13/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140739
SWODY3
SPC AC 140738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development is expected.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells.

At this point, the greatest potential for a significant large hail
and a strong tornado threat is forecast from central and northern
Kansas into far southern Nebraska. However, there is some
uncertainty concerning the exact scenario that will place out.
During the evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective
cluster will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into
the lower to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the western U.S.
on Saturday, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly over the
central states. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central
High Plains, as a moist airmass remains in place from the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. A shortwave
trough is forecast to move into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, thunderstorms are expected to form
in far eastern Colorado during the mid to late afternoon. These
storms are forecast to expand in coverage and move eastward across
the central Plains in the late afternoon and early evening, where
severe storm development will be possible.

By late afternoon, an axis of moderate to strong instability is
forecast from west-central Kansas east-northeastward across northern
Kansas, southeast Nebraska into far northwestern Missouri. Forecast
soundings near this axis of instability in far northern Kansas at
00Z, have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear
around 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will be favorable for supercells with large to very
large hail. The more intense supercell updrafts may be capable of
hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter. By early evening, a 40 to 50
knot low-level jet is forecast to develop from northwest Oklahoma
into southern Kansas. At this time, NAM forecast soundings increase
0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 300 to 400 m2/s2 range
across parts of northern Kansas. However, other model solutions keep
this low-level jet further south in the early evening, suggesting
there is uncertainty concerning severe threat coverage and
magnitude. At this time, there does appears to be potential for
tornadoes, and possibly a strong tornado. This would be the case if
the more aggressive solutions with the low-level jet pan out. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible with supercells. During the
evening, the current thinking is that a severe convective cluster
will move east-northeastward from the central Plains into the lower
to mid Missouri Valley, where large hail and severe wind gusts will
be possible.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys...
West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place from the
Great Lakes southward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. A subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will take place, with surface dewpoints likely increasing
into the mid 60s F over much of Illinois, Indiana and Ohio.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late
afternoon along the leading edge of the shortwave trough, with
storms moving eastward across the region during the evening.
Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast over an unstable airmass with
steep lapse rates. This should support an isolated severe threat
with damaging wind gusts and hail possible.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141929
SWODY3
SPC AC 141928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening across
parts of the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter and a strong tornado will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing will gradually become established over the
western CONUS over the next 72 hours. As this occurs, southwesterly
mid-level flow will become more prominent across the central
Rockies/Plains, resulting in steady deepening of a lee trough
through Saturday. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and
central Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the
Plains, bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a
diffuse warm frontal zone. Medium and long-range guidance depicts an
embedded low-amplitude upper disturbance propagating into the Plains
late Saturday afternoon, which will augment ascent and promote
thunderstorm development in proximity to a deepening lee cyclone
across parts of eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. Additional
strong to severe thunderstorm chances are expected along the dryline
across southwest KS into western OK and northwest TX, as well as
along a warm frontal zone across portions of the Midwest/OH Valley
regions.

...Central Plains...
A deepening surface low will likely become apparent across the
central High Plains ahead of the upper-level disturbance. Convective
initiation is anticipated by late afternoon in proximity to the
surface low and along the warm front where MLCAPE values will likely
exceed 2000 J/kg. Elongated hodographs depicted by most forecast
guidance suggests organized supercells will be possible, and could
pose a threat for very large hail and tornadoes. With time, upscale
growth and an increasing severe wind threat is anticipated as storms
propagate along the frontal zone. Recent guidance has shown fairly
good agreement in a northward shift of the most volatile convective
environment from central KS northwestward into northwest KS/central
NE. Similarly, long-range CAM guidance also depicts the best
convective signal across this region. Severe probabilities were
adjusted northward to reflect this trend.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...
Capping at the base of an EML will likely suppress convective
development along most the dryline across western OK and northwest
TX. However, strong diurnal heating coupled with southerly flow
through the lowest 2-3 km should promote eroding inhibition and
considerable parcel residence time within the dryline circulation.
While medium-range ensemble QPF signal is very limited, long-range
CAM guidance depicts at least some signal for deep convection.
Thunderstorms that can become sustained along the dryline will
likely pose a threat for large hail and severe winds given around 30
knots of effective bulk shear.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is expected to spread east
towards the Midwest through the day. The inhibiting influence of
low-level warming near the base of the EML will be offset to some
degree by persistent low-level theta-e advection. Consequently,
isolated to widely scattered convection appears probable across
central IL into portions of the OH Valley. MUCAPE values on the
order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep convection, and
effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the warm frontal
zone may allow for organized convection with an attendant threat for
severe hail and wind.

..Moore.. 05/14/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150732
SWODY3
SPC AC 150731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be likely Sunday from portions of the central and
southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells capable of
all hazards will be possible before upscale growth and an emerging
damaging wind risk continues into the evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will begin to eject across the Intermountain
West on D3/Sunday with a more subtle shortwave trough moving across
the central Plains. As a result, deepening low pressure will develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas with strengthening southerly
flow and warm moist advection south of a warm front lifting
northward into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Early in the
period, elevated storms will likely be ongoing across portions of
Iowa into southern Minnesota. Scattered severe storms capable of all
hazards will be expected to develop near the warm front/low across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska and across southern South Dakota
continuing into portions of the upper-Midwest along the cold front
through the evening. A more isolated and conditional threat for
severe storms will extend southward along the dryline from western
Kansas into western Oklahoma.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Early day elevated convection is expected to move across portions of
Iowa into the upper-Midwest. This will pose some risk for severe
hail through the morning. Across the central Plains, strong daytime
heating is expected to yield moderate to strong instability across
much of the central Plains. This in combination with strong deep
layer shear suggests a rather volatile environment, particularly
across central Nebraska into southern South Dakota/northwestern
Iowa. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado into Nebraska by the afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular and capable of
all hazards including large to very large hail, damaging wind, and
tornadoes. As the front sags southward through the evening, eventual
upscale growth into a squall line is expected by the evening. A
strong 50 kt low-level jet will ramp up into the evening, which may
support a continuing potential for tornadoes, some of which may be
strong.

...Western Kansas into western Oklahoma...
A more conditional threat may extend southward along the dryline
into western Kansas and western Oklahoma. Guidance suggests some
signal for isolated supercells to develop along and east of the
dryline Sunday afternoon. The environment here will conditionally
favor large to very large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado
or two with the strengthening low-level jet in the evening.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151930
SWODY3
SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday night from
portions of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Supercells
with very large hail and tornadoes are possible, before upscale
storm growth leads to an increase in the wind damage threat.

...Synopsis...
The primary midlevel trough over the northern Great Basin Sunday
morning will progress to the Four Corners by Monday morning. A
subtle, lead shortwave trough (now over northern CA) will eject
northeastward during the day from NM to western KS/central NE, and
it will reach MN by early Monday. A weak reflection of the initial
lee cyclone will likewise move north-northeastward across NE to MN,
along a pre-existing baroclinic zone. The boundary layer will
consist mostly of roughly mid 60s dewpoints east of the dryline and
south of the warm front Sunday, while the fully modified (maritime
tropical) air mass will return to TX through Sunday night.

...NE to MN...
The elevated remnants of overnight convection across NE/IA, and an
associated MCV, should move northeastward toward the upper MS Valley
and weaken. In the wake of the early convection, surface heating in
cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization and storm
development will become probable by Sunday afternoon/evening along
the stalled front in NE, in advance of the weak surface cyclone and subtle/ejecting midlevel trough. Mesoscale details are fairly
uncertain this far in advance. Still, the forecast environment
appears favorable for initial supercells with very large hail and
tornadoes, and some increase in the threat for damaging winds as
convection grows upscale along the front and spreads northeastward
into southeast SD, northwest IA and southwest MN through Sunday
night.

...Western KS to TX Panhandle dryline...
A relatively warm elevated mixed layer and no obvious forcing for
ascent both suggest that storm initiation will rely on sufficiently
deep mixing along the dryline, and that storm formation is very much
in question. If a storm or two forms late afternoon/evening before
the dryline retreats overnight, there be a conditional threat for
supercells with large hail.

..Thompson.. 05/15/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160737
SWODY3
SPC AC 160736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous strong thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday along a
cold front and dryline extending from the Great Lakes into the
central/southern Plains. Supercells capable of all hazards
(including very large hail and strong to intense tornadoes) will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, the western trough will take on a negative tilt before
ejecting across the central Plains, with strong southwesterly flow
aloft overspreading the region. As a result, a strong surface low
will development across western Kansas. A surface cold front will
extend northward to a secondary surface low across the upper
Midwest. A dryline will extend southward across portions of western
Kansas into western Oklahoma. Numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front and further south along
the dryline Monday afternoon and evening from Nebraska into central
Kansas.

...Central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska...
A volatile environment is expected to be in place ahead of the
dryline across central Kansas Monday afternoon, with moderate to
strong instability, strong deep layer shear, and steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. This will favor supercells as the primary
mode with developing thunderstorms along the dryline in the
afternoon, with potential for large to very large hail (some 2-4
inch). Through the afternoon and evening, a 40-50 kt southerly low
level jet will shift into central Kansas with large clockwise
enhancement of low-level hodographs. Should the mode be able to
remain discrete supercells, strong to intense tornadoes will be
possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in
combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.

As the front shifts southward through time, upscale growth will be
favored with increasing probabilities for damaging winds.

...Iowa into Wisconsin and the Great Lakes Region...
Widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected further north
along the front into Iowa/Wisconsin and north into the Great Lakes
Region. Early day convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period within these regions, which may limit how much
destabilization can occur before the afternoon. Nonetheless,
guidance suggests potential for damaging wind and perhaps a few
instances of severe hail with storms along the front Monday
afternoon and evening.

...Western Oklahoma into northern Texas...
Forcing for ascent will be weaker across the dryline into western
Oklahoma and northern Texas. Guidance does suggest that a few
isolated supercells could develop near the dryline, with potential
for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado.
Given the strong flow aloft and better large scale ascent will
reside further north in Kansas, mode may quickly become messy with
uncertainty in overall coverage at this time.

..Thornton.. 05/16/2026

$$

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