AWUS01 KWNH 271857
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-280030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern IND...Southeast IL...Northwest KY...
Bootheel of MO...Extreme Western OH...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271900Z - 280030Z

SUMMARY...Weakening of initial MCS and flanking WAA cells in the
Lower Ohio River Valley. Rates up to 1.5"/hr and stripes of 2-3"
still pose possible localized flash flooding concerns through
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and GOES-E Visible loop denote a
decaying MCS continuing to advance eastward recently crossing the
central IND/IL border. Though the MCV is shearing to the
northeast in a degrading stratiform region, the southeast flank
remains fairly active with a few scattered individual cells
extending southward from the elevated warm front moving across the
Ohio River proper. VWP still depicts strong low level southerly
flow veering to southwest through S IL with 40-50kts through 700mb
providing the advection of the higher theta-E air over the stable
(reinforced by morning cloudy conditions) over south-central to
southeast IND.

Still,the higher moisture availability along with building sharp
MUCAPE gradient to 500-2000 J/kg advecting northeast to help
maintain these cells; through strengthening is probably a bit more
limited. There remain strong flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates with occasional localized peaks to near 2". Combine these
rates with a slightly flattening of the convective line to the
deep mean steering flow should still support localized 2-3"
streaks through the late afternoon into the evening hours. Strong
upstream convergence would also support flanking
cell/back-building environment to further increase overall
coverage of thunderstorm activity...particularly across S IND and
far the Ohio River counties of northwest KY.

Relative soil moisture values are slightly below average and FFG
values reflect this slightly higher requirement for exceedance and
result in flash flooding to be considered possible and localized,
though intersection with any urban center would increase this
potential.

Upstream shortwave will result in an additional line of strong convection/thunderstorm activity that will pose a higher potential
for flash flooding into the overnight period; so even if this
round doesn't result in flooding, it will saturate the upper soils
likely to increase runoff problems. As such, please keep
weather-wise to local WFO warnings and advisory and subsequent
MPDs later this evening.

...MO Bootheel/S IL...
Deeper in the warm sector across the Tri-River Confluence area,
instability has built to over 3000 J/kg given temps nearing
mid-80s and Tds into the low 70s. Capping will likely limit
convective development, but Hi-Res CAMS still suggest isolated
broader updraft cores. Departure from steering of exiting MCS
influence and upstream height-falls over IA, leaves steering flow
a bit reduced and muddled to allow for slower motions perhaps with
some weak updraft rotation to further deflect forward propagation.
Any cells that can form in this regime will have solid capability
of 2"/hr rates give 1.5-1.75" total PWat and confluent low level
flux convergence if they do develop. As such, quick compiling
could be an issue given hourly FFG values of 1.5-2" and
2-3.5"/3hrs and may also result in a possible incident or two
localized flash flooding before cold frontal line later into the
overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7BM7XiGh5nW6vF2CTMkPjRTSCsscWaLSbEvHhHDU4XFRRrOaiqSgEmaxEDU2zQBLglRP= CI3del5BhrzAEAXL7d0FoQA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LMK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40658478 39888425 38948457 38378532 37978609=20
37288766 36808856 36288976 36629045 37328982=20
38198890 38778835 40028703 40548594=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271958
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central to Southern Illinois and Missouri...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 272000Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Repeating Thunderstorms capable of 3-6" totals across
portions of Southern IL. More scattered, less efficient cells
upstream may repeat across saturated grounds in the Ozark Plateau
with more localized/scattered flash flooding likely too.

DISCUSSION...The environmental setup looks conducive for repeating
rounds of thunderstorm activity across portions of eastern
Missouri into south-central IL through the evening into early
overnight period, prolonging the potential for flash flooding
condtions. A well-defined thermal boundary extends across central
MO from near Fort Scott, KS to south of Jefferson City to near St.
Louis, in response to this morning's MCS. Temperatures have
returned to the low 80s with low 70s Tds in the lower elevations
surrounding the Ozarks, with upper 60s Tds within the Plateau.=20
However, CIRA LPW denotes, the core of the warm conveyor belt has
translated across SE MO into S IL responding to the initial
short-wave that sparked the MCS last night that has exited into
the Great Lakes Region. The main upper-level trof and
height-falls are starting to advance eastward over the
Upper-Midwest and broader LLJ has backed to southerly in response;
though a dry-slot can be seen nosing into from the SW over NE OK
into SW OK. As such, a very unstable environment with MLCAPEs to
3000 J/kg extends the length of the frontal zone with bimodal
strong sfc to boundary layer moisture convergence maxima along the
western end near the advancing northern stream cold
front/height-falls in KS and along the warm conveyor belt from
St.Louis to the old MCS squall line in SW IND.

Reduced moisture into the upstream cells near the cold front will
help reduce overall rates and while the updrafts will support more
severe signatures of hail, winds and possible tornadoes (see SPC
MCD 572), the compromised soils from the heavy rainfall last night
2-5" have reduced FFG values to less than 1.5"/hr and broadly less
than 2"/3hrs across much of the MO portion of the MPD. So
accompanying the severe, will be solid moisture flux to support
hourly rates of 1.5"/hr with much coming in sub-hourly
time-frames. So flash flooding is likely along and south of the
front especially between I-70 and I-44, though may be more
localized and these isolated totals should be less than 3".

Downstream, ongoing strong thunderstorms are intersecting the
45-50kt SWly LLJ within the core of the warm conveyor belt/q-axis
through the Mississippi River Valley. some post-MCS recovery has
resulted in elevated MUCAPE back to 2500 J/kg and convection is
once again expanding along the convergence line from the old MCS
cold pool back along the remaining thermal boundary. Flux
convergence will support rates up to 2"/hr though WoFS 5-min and
HRRR 15-min totals suggest most will be sub-hourly in the cores of
the broader downdrafts, with max values of .4-.5" and 1.25-1.4"
respectively. Deep layer steering the wake of the inital
shortwave and the relatively digging upstream shortwave support
flow that is fairly parallel to the boundary with some
south-southeast forward propagation with time. As such, a
prolonged training/repeat environment is developing across the
eastern portion of the MPD generally along and just south of I-70.
Hi-Res CAMS including the HRRR and WoFS support areas of 3-5"
with above average confidence particulalry further east, though
the more rapidly refreshing solutions show a southward trend
consistent with current Vis, RADAR loops. WoFS forecast mean
around 4" and 90th percentile near 6" is a solid range though 00z;
with a line of 2-3" back toward St. Louis ans the cold front fills
in with another round. These totals are likely to result in flash
flooding this evening into early overnight period.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_aWbu-ODH-Z-xIypGr_plPoXuzgvV27KplbdkmEpfRI3JIx56NWGYHNxRheEHzARg7wF= 6PDpCniPq67qjBNYitr3lsI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39718957 39718841 39448778 38758767 38188820=20
37878902 37669009 37509105 37369209 37339298=20
37429453 38239463 38619417 39499140=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272137
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0142
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
537 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northeast IL...Far Northeast MO...Far
Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272140Z - 280200Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection with capability of 1.5"/hr rates and
totals up to 2.5" due to short-term repeating across recently
saturated/low FFG soils pose possible localized flash flooding
risk, especially near prone urban centers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV shows shortwave at the base of mean longwave
trough over the NEB/IA/MO/KS intersection lifting northeast
providing solid DPVA along and downstream in northern MO. Low
level jet response has been to lift the old outflow boundary/front
northward over the last few hours with solid boundary layer WAA
confluent along the upwind edge of a old surface pressure
trough/convergence axis from Keokuk north through SW WI. As such,
theta-E ascent along with some insolation recovery over central IL
has seen a narrow wedge of increasing MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg
into far NE MO along the pressure trough but well ahead of the
approaching cold front. Southeasterly surface flow with Tds in
the the low 60s combined with the southerly 925-850mb proving
sufficient moisture flux as well to feed developing thunderstorms
along this axis.=20

Hi-Res CAMs including the 18z Nam-Nest have shown a steady
increasing trend to convective vigor and coverage into central IL
toward the evening. Rates of 1-1.5"/hr are expected given the
strengthening moisture flux convergence in the sharpening
deformation zone/north of the main front ahead of the height-fall
maximum. Cells will be faster moving along the nose of the 110kt
jet streak but should be aligned for an hour or so, before
eastward propagation stops the short-term training. Short-term
totals should be 1-1.5" but in these streaks of short-term core
training (especially over the next few hours), a spot or two of
2.5" could be possible. Overall, the grounds had lower FFG due to
higher seasonal rains, but this morning's MCS helped to saturate
the upper soils, so capacity is slightly reduced. FFG values of
1-1.5"/hr and less than 2"/3hr (especially further south across
central IL) remain possible to be exceeded over the next few
hours. Additionally, there is a lower possibility that cells may
maintain or build far enough north before the height-falls/cold
front wash over that sub-urban and southern Chicagoland may see
these quick hitting sub-hourly 1"+ totals, which has typically
been an issue for urban flooding as well.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4ELlyUm2NjQ_I-_GsHCFMVuqWEqlwknvPVl0At1OkAjcVlkn4QobN80G9Bp10dA5l_1N= gVBeHe0ciysiWJHicAtw5zI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42058784 41588676 40918642 40278668 39628790=20
39538839 39449018 39319217 40639101 41588936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280030
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0143
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
829 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Central & Southern
Indiana...Northwest Kentucky...Ext. Southwest Ohio...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280030Z - 280630Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing isentropic ascent over saturated areas for a few
more hours before cold front convection rolls through with an an
additional 1-2" in hour for localized pockets of additional 2-4"
totals. Scattered localized incidents of flash flooding likely to
continue overnight.

DISCUSSION...00z surface analysis continues to show broad SSWly
flow through the MS Valley intersecting a well defined and
deepening cold pool from the prolonged MCS from last evening. The
outflow boundary extends from south of CVG to SDF before
intersecting the stationary front/effective warm front northeast
of Evansville, IND. The warm front has slowly shifted eastward
out of the MS Valley and generally in the vicinity of the
Tennessee River. A 999mb surface just moved through the St. Louis
Metro as the cold front is starting to surge eastward under the
influence of the strong height-falls from the shortwave across
northern MO at this time. As such, the LLJ has responded by
broadening with VWP denoted 40-50kts of SSW intersecting the old
outflow. East toward the outflow boundary, the instability is
reduced just east and cells have fractured though still remain on
a fairly favorable west to east repeating orientation across SW
IND into NW KY near Louisville. Core of the warm conveyor
belt/q-axis is aligned here with TPW values remaining above 1.5",
with maximized values near 1.75" along the Wabash. As such, these
cells remain fairly efficient occasionally reaching 2"/hr though
1.5" seems to be average, though with some southward propagation
of the cold pool, the overlap with areas flooded earlier this
evening is decreasing resulting in a broader area of 2-4" totals,
which is at or just above 1 to 3hr FFG values suggesting flooding
is likely to continue locally, particularly in/near urban centers
due to broad areas of hydrophobic surfaces.

Upstream, the instability axis remains west of the moisture axis,
due to slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates/intrusion of
mid-level EML across SW to east-central MO. MLCAPEs of 2500 J/kg
nose toward the surface low and frontal zone across S IL with 3500
J/kg values upstream in SE MO to feed increased convective
activity along the front. As such, convergence is maximized near
the surface wave and stationary boundary and will likely maintain stronger/broader updrafts capable of highly efficient rainfall
production. However, deep layer steering due to the height-falls,
mid-level stronger jet has been and will reduce residency time and
limit additional rainfall totals to 1-2", likely in 30 to 60
minutes as the track through the saturated areas of south-central
IL and eventually intersection with the ongoing west to east
repeating cells and saturated areas of Southern IND. The
quickness of rates/totals will more likely further expand any
ongoing flooded areas, with some spots receiving up to an
additional 4"+ through 06z.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8KNIAifvnIXx1Byaywpt-fsTJkLkuReKRQVvn4nVPGbAODsYBnBx59QQpmYyt-g-gXqN= KeEzzY-iithZeJgeeKbfjMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40258674 40238524 39498436 38508404 37858439=20
37218647 36698861 37268959 38588882 39388815=20
39918738=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280138
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-280700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0144
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
937 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southwest Arkansas...Far
Northwest Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 280140Z - 280700Z

SUMMARY...Slow right moving supercells with very high moisture
flux and capability of 2-2.5"/hr rates pose highly localized 2-4"
streaks capable of localized flash flooding in early overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Surface and CIRA Sfc-850 LPW show a very moist
boundary layer with a surge of Gulf moisture reaching the Red
River though eastern TX with Tds in the middle 70s with a few
upper 70s values dotted across. A dry line bulge exists across
south-central OK with a surface wave near KSRE and the cold front
slowly sagging southward across central to northeast OK. With
loss of day-time heating/mixing, the dry line is already starting
to retrograde as surface winds back to south and southeast in NE
TX providing the convergence necessary to break the stronger cap
near and northeast of the Dallas metro area in the last few hours.
A few cells further north with reduced convergence, weakened, but
now the the updrafts are established with ample rotation, the
moisture flux is likely sufficient to maintain these cells.
MLCAPEs of 4500 J/kg will keep updrafts strong to maintain
increased isallobaric inflow.

Additionally, given the stronger updraft rotation, cell motions
are also going to decrease supporting increased residency of the
cells. Currently, hail production has been dominant, but KDP
signals have shown heavy rainfall production is starting to be
more focused as well for the pair of right mover in Rockwall and
Hopkins county.=20

Given the strong inflow of those 70s Tds and overall TPW to 1.75",
rates of 2-2.5"/hr are possible, especially as the updrafts
broaden the overall profile moistens. As such, localized 3-4"
totals are considered possible. While FFG values are naturally
high and soils are dry, that means they are fairly hard as well,
reducing uptake of the amount of water at that rate, suggesting
localized flash flooding/rapid inundation ponding in urban areas
is considered possible overnight.=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uosHqGob-xjnGhbejXdEU3F7-7NlQfzF9s2CorLea9v0kO_jK6X2iAtxeYlLFGpo4Ki= v2gihXiT9rQgN1j4le0_Dvc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33759449 33559344 32999304 32419346 32289498=20
32299563 32409658 32879705 33439661 33709572=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281525
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0145
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1124 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...north-central MS into central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 282030Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms are expected for
portions of north-central MS into central AL through the early
afternoon. Peak hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will occur (locally
higher values possible) within areas of training with localized
flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1510Z across northern MS and
north-central AL showed scattered thunderstorms located north of
an outflow boundary that stretched from near GWO to TCL to EUF.
The western end of the ouflow boundary has been nearly stationary
over the past few hours and 0-1 km AGL winds were from the SSW at
15-20 kt, overrunning the outflow boundary and allowing for some
very brief training and peak hourly rainfall up to ~1 inch at
times. Aloft, flow was diffluent, helping to support broader scale
ascent across the region. 12Z soundings from FFC to BMX to JAN
showed that MUCAPE varied across the South, with MUCAPE values
increasing toward the west with 1500-2000 J/kg at JAN.

Recent forecasts from the RAP do not show any significant changes
to elevated instability values from MS into AL through 21Z but do
show the low level flow weakening and veering a bit. Therefore, it
is unclear how much upstream development will continue but there
will continue to be some degree of overrunning and likely upstream
thunderstorm development for at least the next 2-4 hours, aided by
subtle impulses aloft within the WSW mid-level flow. There will be
the potential for repeating cells and training along and north of
the outflow boundary with hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches and
localized 3 to 4+ inch totals within 2 to 3 hours, possibly
leading to localized flash flooding. Largely dry antecedent
conditions may limit any flash flooding to urban or otherwise
sensitive locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4vGPCOKiulQUd15Il53z5GxqSm1yeN7rH_TetrmvIGmf_YUMQdaF-iv9DWHNJB-L9jAs= RDtpHjlAvUBA874txxJ0VI0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34488940 34228763 33688616 32828591 32308649=20
32258763 32918901 33409048 34089045=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281834
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-290015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0146
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...southeastern OK/northeastern TX into southern
AR/northern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281832Z - 290015Z

SUMMARY...An increase in the coverage of thunderstorms is expected
across portions of southeastern OK/northern-northeastern TX into
southern AR/northern LA through the afternoon. Repeating and brief
training of heavy rain could result in isolated 3 to 5 inch totals
within a 2 to 3 hours window along with flash flooding, although
any coverage of these higher rainfall values should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations helped place a
quasi-stationary front from a low near the Red River, northwest of
SPS, east-northeastward into central AR. The environment along and
south of the front was very unstable with MLCAPE of 2500 to 4000+
J/kg via 18Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Scattered thunderstorms were
ongoing along and north of the front from south-central MO into
western and southern AR, with motions averaging 30-40 kt toward
the ENE. It was relatively quiet to the west but upstream, water
vapor imagery showed a shortwave trough axis over the southern TX
Panhandle with movement approaching the Red River. Visible imagery
showed the early stages of convective development ahead of the
dryline and near the stationary front ahead of the Red River
surface low.

Additional thunderstorm development within the unstable airmass is
likely over the next few hours as upstream energy interacts with
numerous boundaries (including an outflow boundary currently
between the DFW Metroplex and the Red River) and the unstable
environment where CIN is continuing to decrease with daytime
heating. Sufficient shear exists for organized cells, with
supercells and multicells containing movement from the W or WSW.
While the general movement of most cells should be progressive
toward the east, there is potential for some localized upstream
redevelopment and brief training which could result in 1 to 2
in/hr rates and 3 to 5 inch totals on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_bGaOFFGjC6XB_HKwCI2eTopET_qfHn6SCXLfVcbDxgy9iAvjk0ir3l3fMI5jxzdH5H4= DSxNWgGytZKGc1DZrIrWe7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35449344 34919229 34009119 33359107 32789167=20
32099310 31649567 31949757 32789856 33479896=20
34219876 34709773 34929555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282031
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Western & Middle TN...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Eastern AR...Southwest KY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282030Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Congealing clusters with rates of 2"/hr to have widely
scattered to scattered 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs posing possible
localized incident or two of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis and 10.3um EIR loops along with regional
RADAR composite, denotes the scattered clusters of thunderstorms
are starting to congeal across eastern AR with merging
up/downdraft structures. Overshooting top/billowing anvils are
denote the modest upper-level divergence in the area along the
southern split in the polar (right exit)/subtropical jet. This is
supporting accelerating low-level flow with confluence in boundary
layer though the MS River Valley. Within this low level advection
regime, surface Tds in the mid-70s and CIRA LPW core of sfc-850mb
moisture near .75-1" value across southern AR should be advected
well into the complex increasing efficiency with time. As such,
the expansion coverage of ascent is increasing sufficiently to
support broadening 1.75-2"/hr rates, with some overall residency
time to likely support some localized 2-3.5" totals in 2-3hrs.=20
Downstream instability pool of 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE should
help to maintain/expand the complex across western TN into middle
TN with some possible southward building into N MS given the
favorable moisture environment further south as well.=20

Hydrologically, the grounds remain very hard and dry with RSM
0-40cm values around or below 30%. This hardness given the
magnitude of rates will be less absorptive at least initially,
that runoff should be higher than would be expected in such
drought conditions. Additionally, the FFG values across much of
TN are 1.5-2"/hr and generally 2-3" so widely scattered to
scattered incidents of flash flooding are considered possible
given the expected 2"/hr rates and spots up to 3.5". Obviously,
intersection with urban settings would further increase the
probability of localized flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7mxcq72tpRSbVi7H-XJMWjSBLC6IGrpesCWwJmoE1oRh0KDjI0fujRI8x9LPHEgnO0oo= x2yhA74l2HC9WH1KV5QFRo4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36948711 36878647 36488589 35678617 35148675=20
34748778 34358945 34269016 34439090 35259095=20
35849076 36268997 36698868=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 282055
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
453 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Central Mississippi...Central Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282055Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Expanding Complex of Thunderstorms with capability of
2"/hr rates approaching areas saturated this morning, as well as,
lingering scattered activity

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR and 20z surface observations show
stabilized area and remnant outflow boundary across south-central
AL from KEUF to KTOI to KPRN that is starting to angle more
northwest to due north just west of the MS/AL line from KMEI to
KLMS to KSTF. Broad southwesterly low-level flow has be weak but
sufficient to maintain scattered thunderstorm activity along the
edge of this meso-high/stabilized area, but recent uptick in wind
along the upwind edge from the south and southwest to 30kts has
increased convergence and isentropic ascent to break out further
convection mainly on the SW edge toward Meridian, MS toward N
Clarke/Wilcox county in AL. Deep layer steering will keep them in line/parallel to the boundary to support some possible
training/repeating in proximity to areas affected by the initial
thunderstorm line earlier today.=20=20

However, further upstream; a strong divergence signal aloft in a
split between the polar/sub-tropical upper-level jets has migrated
eastward across the MS River and scattered thunderstorms have
started to congeal/expand into a larger complex over west-central
MS. Pooled moisture along the old outflow boundary as well as
increased values from further west (noted in CIRA LPW) show above
average moisture of sfc Tds in the low 70s, but overall TPWs
reaching near 2". This along with sufficient moisture flux
convergence should support rates of 2"/hr. The progressive nature
to the east should limit overall totals to 2-3.5" which given
recent drought and naturally higher FFG values are close but just
below exceedance. However, this morning has reduced some values
especially in proximity to Chickasaw to Noxubee counties in MS and
into Pickens county in AL which reduced to below 3" in 6hrs and
about 1.25-2"/hr; suggesting a slightly better chance of possible
flash flooding across that portion of the MPD. Overall, isolated
to widely scattered incidents of flash flooding will be possible
where repeating or slightly longer residency can occur likely to
storm-scale interactions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DYK6FGXdhXvSsgnqzGInQx2eAKE7jL1JNVI7BRx2y3bOBisQalNnQIFnSwAY9yu1Cbi= 743yq2pVYVFafXCMrWsac2E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34328910 34058786 33248605 32498521 31818537=20
31648627 31658732 31778863 31928947 32119028=20
32449078 33049105 33799089 34259020=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290033
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-290600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
832 PM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern AR...Northern MS...Northwest
AL...Southwest TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290030Z - 290600Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convective coverage with strengthening of the
low-level jet, ample moisture and occasional training/repeating
elements support rates up to 2+"/hr locally and widely scattered
spots of 2-4" inducing possible incident(s) of flash flooding
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows broad diffluence between the
split in the polar jet (which is deflecting northward through the
Ohio Valley) and the sub-tropical jet that is diving south across
E TX. This has supported some broad ascent and favorable
vorticity development across E AR in the mid-levels to support a
weak surface wave and northward warm-advective shift across
northern AR. LLJ continues to increase in speed and is utilizing
the western fridge of a shallow outflow that has been reinforced
by multiple rounds of convection across N MS today. Deep layer
moisture is pooled along that outflow boundary and is providing
solid flux to developing storms. However, RAP analysis shows
increasing capping across S AR with a remaining weakly capped or
uncapped area of 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across north-central AR
angling southwest into NW MS attm. As such, increasing activity
is utilizing the buoyancy and divergence aloft to expand in
coverage and rainfall efficiency.

Overall deep layer moisture is at or around 2" and given the
vertical ascent capability and overall low level moisture
convergence/flux should support rates of similar values (2"/hr).=20
The limiting factor is the residency of any given cell, will be
limited due to east to east-southeast cell motions and forward
propagation. Orientation of the convective cells may allow for
some short-term training, but overall cells will be repeating
through areas that may have seen one or two earlier rounds today
with streaks of 1-3" locally. So an additional potential for 2-3"
with a worst case 4" total, is in line with or slightly exceeds
the FFG values in the area of concern. As such, a widely
scattered incident or two of flash flooding remains possible
through the overnight period as the wave/divergence maxima slides
eastward into the Delta Region and eventually N MS/AL, though
instability will be steadily reducing with time and therefore
overall coverage and intensity should follow.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-CTkPKTremPgq0Snm9Zw_rkJMeDN_-_PBaLeBsmdx_ic-RaVtzMST6TGUxvL9an3ivjo= nCJuMme4tzbY_ob9ji78_LY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35879144 35759006 35528911 35158827 34788758=20
34248684 33328717 32928777 32868882 33469023=20
34119139 34779289 35609302 35839249=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 290532
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-291130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0150
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Southeast AR...Central and Northern MS...Central
and Northern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290530Z - 291130Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue to advance east across large areas of the Mid-South
overnight. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected and
some cell-training may result in additional localized swaths of 2
to 4 inches of rain by dawn. This will foster additional concerns
for isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, and especially
around the more sensitive urban corridors.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
substantial cold-topped convective mass continuing to advance
gradually east across large areas of the Mid-South, with an
emphasis on southeast AR through central and northern MS, and also
adjacent areas of central and northern AL. All of this is
associated with the ejection of multiple waves of surface low
pressure out of the Lower MS Valley and toward the OH Valley as a
well-defined shortwave trough crosses the region.

Favorable upper-jet dynamics along with the nose of a convergent
30 to 40 kt low-level jet will continue to favor areas of locally
organized convection through the predawn hours across especially
northern MS and portions of central and northern AL. MUCAPE values
are highest across southeast AR through northern MS with values of
1500 to 2500 J/kg in place, and this coupled with PWs near 1.75
inches will favor high rainfall rates capable of reaching well
into the 1 to 2 inch/hour range. Effective bulk shear values of
locally over 50 kts remain in place based on the latest RAP
analysis and this should continue to favor multicells and some
supercell thunderstorms in the near-term that will contain these
enhanced rainfall rates.

The nose of the low-level jet should increase the moisture and
instability transport along with a corridor of well-defined
isentropic ascent across central and northern AL, so some of the
heavier rainfall may tend to focus across these areas over the
next few hours. In fact, the cloud top temperatures currently over
northwest AL are as cold as -70C, and thus indicative of strong
vertical velocities with enhanced thermodynamic forcing.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches can be expected where
any cell-training occurs. Given that some areas of have already
seen heavy rainfall, the additional rains will certainly continue
to support a threat for isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding. The more sensitive urban corridors will also be at risk
for seeing impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5JHa6Gfbv3mZTTfrUFAUl9DFKc1XRjn5u6KgiYIiKuHziyi64waYSxe59MLWRtLFM-Z= F_yCGuPILJpfb6dRdQ20l2U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34658825 34618704 34538615 34228559 33618527=20
32888545 32388644 32588849 33159031 33639217=20
34099237 34419113 34558971=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291816
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0151
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Southern MS...Ext. Southwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291815Z - 300000Z

SUMMARY...Potential for training cells within deep moisture
profile suggests locally higher rates and potential for 3" totals
in 2-3 hours nearing FFG values suggests isolated incident(s) of
flash flooding are possible.=20

DISCUSSION...18z Surface analysis denotes last evening's outflow
boundary remains angled ESE from SW AL across central MS
intersecting the southward dropping cold front along I-20 between
Jackson and Vicksburg, before being aligned to a weak surface wave
in NW LA. Regional RADAR and visible imagery shows elevated
convection in proximity to the best divergence along the right
rotor of the upper-level jet crossing out of NE TX into LA;
helping to support the weak surface low. Low level wind has
responded with increasingly confluent surface to boundary layer
flow from the southwest intersecting the boundary. Clear skies in
the morning and surface temps to upper 70s over low to mid 70s Tds
support ample buoyancy with core of MLCAPE of 2500 J/kg centered
around and just north of the SW MS corner.=20

CIRA LPW shows enhanced surface to mid-level moisture advecting
toward this unstable area with values of .8-.9" in the sfc-850mb
resulting in overall PW totals nearing or locally exceeding 2",
suggesting efficient rainfall production in the relatively
narrow/skinny CAPE profiles. The greater concern is the
alignment of 800 to 400mb unidirectional steering flow mainly
parallel to the old outflow boundary supportive of
training/repeating potential. The strength of the low level
inflow/flux is only about 15-20kts which may be weak relative for
stronger updraft support but this weakness may counter-balance any southwestward propagation vectors to maintain the residency time
to overcome the drier ground conditions, e.g. FFG values. Still,
Hi-Res CAMs support short-term rates of 1-1.5" in 15-30 minutes
and combination with training spots up to 3" which suggest
localized FFG exceedance and therefore incident or two of
scattered flash flooding is possible.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qxNoxYIO3qyp5Bw6Cm_MoewymUBWUJxjunwmjj0ripARxJDK5XcrWplPvHSeReqBMbK= uaXHUSS6RlTHn9XsUnA-fYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33089375 33029226 32789090 32458949 32028829=20
31488807 30948836 30838922 30979021 31379156=20
32019317 32509386=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292341
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-300530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0152
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
740 PM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas affected...Central Louisiana...Southwest Mississippi...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292340Z - 300530Z

SUMMARY...Low end, isolated flash flooding risk continues as
upstream redevelopment remains in favorable flow regime to repeat
across areas affected with initial bout across central LA into S
MS.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts MCV/precip shield
continuing to slide ESE across S MS toward SW AL with well defined
squall/bow of convective cores along the leading edge and along
the western flank across SW MS entering LA, having laid out solid
heavy rainfall swath of 1-2+" with isolated peaks of 3" totals
helping to reduce the naturally higher FFG values in the area.=20
GOES-E Visible and 10.3um EIR shows upstream new development
across far E TX into West-central LA with scattered weaker
isentropically forced cells over the outflow boundary betwixt the
main cores near the MS corner. VWP and RAP analysis suggest some
enhancing winds from LCH toward the northeast within the core of
highest remaining overall moisture.

Additionally, as the instability errodes or is utilized eastward,
a ribbon of unstable 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE exists within this
slightly strengthening SWly confluent low-level flow. As such,
stronger convergence should help to maintain/redevelop cells in
proximity to the outflow boundary and with deeper layer steering a
bit south of due east may allow for continued repeating/training
across central LA and perhaps into the affected areas of SW MS
over the early overnight period. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr are possible
given the the abundance of total moisture (over 2") and strength
of ascent. While flux is not extreme, it will also not drive
quicker southwestward propagation vectors further allowing the
potential for repeating. And additional 2-3" over areas with the
lowered FFG still suggest an isolated incident or two of localized
flash flooding remain possible overnight.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85JTAlwHYNsu4YkWn2jk6VH3XRaticcNFtQducnj3a8W-RpIhLFv9T_iN-8HrdiUZnuF= JvV7GoAeS3fHB5bMeaZ3fAA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32369104 32238984 31758937 30888938 30548951=20
30389016 30489110 30709200 31039316 31359352=20
31739359 32089314=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 301641
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0153
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...far southeastern TX into southern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 301638Z - 302230Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms are expected across
portions of southern LA through at least the mid-afternoon. Peak
hourly rainfall values over 2 inches will be possible with
potential impacts to the I-10 corridor between Lake Charles and
New Orleans.

DISCUSSION...16Z visible satellite and area radar imagery showed
developing showers/thunderstorms over southern LA, along and south
of I-10, with a general movement off toward the ESE at 20 to 30+
kt following the deeper layer mean flow. However, a few slower
moving heavy rain cores were noted over Iberia and Assumption
parishes. Surface observations from 16Z showed these cells were
forming along a slow moving front which extended from the
Chandeleur Sound, west-northwestward into southwestern LA and into
a surface low northeast of Galveston Bay. 925-850 mb winds were
marginally stronger at 10-15 kt from the SSW into the front
(enhanced moisture flux) into the central Gulf Coast, between a
weak ridge over the east-central Gulf and subtle cyclonic flow
over TX.

The environment as sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding and 16Z SPC
mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE of 500 to 1500+ J/kg over southern LA
and PWs of 1.7 to 1.9 inches with moisture contributions from the
Gulf in the low levels and sub-tropical eastern Pacific in the
mid-upper levels as seen on OSPO ALPW imagery. Sufficient bulk
shear (40-55 kt via mesoanalysis) and instability was present for
organized cells. Given the weakening of low level inhibition with
continued daytime heating, thunderstorms are likely to continue
expanding along the front with a mixture of modes and speeds.
Given the mean steering flow oriented parallel to the initiating
boundary, and continued low level inflow from the south, there are
concerns for upstream redevelopment, repeating and training of
cells which will contain hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but
locally higher values in excess of 2 inches will also be possible.
2 to 4 inch storm totals will be possible but the 12Z HREF and
recent HRRR/RRFS cycles indicate the potential for 4+ inches
through 23Z (although the RRFS appears overdone). Flash flooding
will be possible, with the greatest concern within the
metropolitan centers along I-10.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4b5N85STP0qax359_CZ0s9tF5YCu75GbpuU5Bikb13MRaxWusdEstSKpr6gG1O1NJmK6= ps7EUnab5xfAKe_W003Jx74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729283 30659105 30298967 29808899 29268886=20
29058934 29469049 29619162 29659296 29669378=20
29729436 30409428=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010747
FFGMPD
TXZ000-011346-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0154
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...South Central to Southeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010746Z - 011346Z

SUMMARY...Elevated convection expanding north of a surface front
will pose an isolated flash flood threat through 14Z. While
individual storms will be fast-moving, multiple rounds of
convection tracking over the same areas could result in localized
totals of 2 to 3 inches, threatening urban areas and sensitive
Hill Country basins.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows elevated convection
continuing to expand across south-central to southeast Texas,
situated north of a surface boundary. Convective coverage and
intensity should be maintained into the morning hours as
large-scale forcing for ascent strengthens, driven by an
approaching mid-level shortwave and favorable upper-level jet
divergence.

The environment features a deep moisture profile, with
precipitable water values currently around 1.8 to 2.0 inches. This
is being supplied by a dual moisture feed, tapping into Pacific
moisture in the mid to upper levels and Gulf moisture in the low
levels. While this deep moisture generally supports efficient
precipitation production, instability is a limiting factor. MUCAPE
is currently analyzed between 500 and 1000 J/kg, but a slight
downward trend has been noted recently.

Spatially, the strongest instability remains confined to the
southern periphery of the convective shield. Here, organized cells
and embedded elevated supercells are maintained by strong
deep-layer shear. However, much of the available CAPE is above the
freezing level, supporting a notable hail threat that acts as a
negative factor for overall rainfall efficiency. With northward
extent, instability drops off, resulting in generally weaker storm
intensities. Additionally, individual storm motions remain
relatively quick across the board, which will limit the duration
of heavy rainfall at any single location.

Consequently, the flash flood threat will be contingent upon
multiple rounds of convection affecting the same locations. While
individual storms are capable of producing a quick 1 inch of rain,
the fast storm motions and weaker instability will make it
difficult to achieve significant totals from a single cell.
However, where repeated rounds track over the same area, localized
runoff issues could materialize as storm totals push toward 3
inches. Urban areas and the naturally flashy, sensitive basins of
the Hill Country will be most at risk, though at this time the
overall flash flood coverage is generally expected to remain
isolated through 14Z.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_oSL5XhjlOe7jYsYeXfqI8CSkANMdX9W0tVBf-MD6gcwQw-Fm8eGYNV2udRg8_hNjh56= lGpw3-mC32KRM5yqJ73hcxU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729653 30719530 30589433 29669486 28839726=20
28369859 28070001 28060015 28490068 28860095=20
29420057 30279841=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011417
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-012010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0155
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1016 AM EDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...south-central into southeastern TX into
southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011415Z - 012010Z

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will continue to affect
south-central into southeastern TX, reaching southwestern LA later
this morning. Peak hourly rainfall values near 1 inch are expected
although hourly rainfall near 2 inches will be possible closer to
the upper TX and LA coast. Repeating rounds of additional rainfall
may result in additional rainfall totals near 3 inches through 20Z
in one or two locations.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery from 14Z showed areas of
moderate to heavy rain extending from near San Antonio into
portions of southeastern TX. North of a stationary front, elevated
instability with MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg was estimated from
south-central TX to the upper TX coast via 14Z SPC mesoanalysis
data (though most locations were below 500 J/kg) and PWs were
anomalous with 1.6 to 1.9 inches in place over the region. Low
level convergence, centered near 850 mb, has aligned with the
repeating rounds of convection which have been tracking between 40
and 50 kt toward the ENE from roughly San Antonio, eastward along
I-10 to just north of Houston. The quick-moving nature of
convective segments has limited peak hourly rainfall values to 0.5
to 1.0 inches but the repeating nature of the rainfall has
generated an MRMS-derived 1 to 3 inches over the past 6 hours from
the San Antonio metro to the northern side of Houston.

The axis of low level convergence is forecast by RAP guidance to
persist over the next several hours, but translate downstream into
southwestern LA by 18-20Z out ahead of a shortwave trough ejecting
east from far western TX. A similar evolution of storm mode is
expected into the early afternoon with bursts of intense rainfall
forming upstream and tracking toward the ENE at a relatively quick
pace. There could be brief alignment of heavier rainfall along the
convergence axis supporting short-term training as well. The
combination of repeating rounds and brief training of heavy
rainfall is expected to lead to localized additional totals of 2
to 3 inches through 20Z from southeastern TX into southwestern LA.
Given instability increases with southward extent, there is some
low-end potential for higher rates to impact coastal locations,
anywhere from the middle/upper TX coast into southwestern LA, with
hourly rainfall peaking near 2 inches. Localized flash flooding
will continue to be possible for these regions of TX and LA into
the afternoon, especially over urban areas or locations that have
received heavy rainfall over the past 24-48 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_KlCGXYGAHEk0yT1cutM9x8HAQpRAB4E6FAJe1_3PuBixSIA93uGoWzSDzOOdX6QQCGf= GetRkYtrjt2g_jYsDcs93w8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31399315 30959148 29959142 29379210 29259392=20
27939688 28939876 29559913 30339856 30699682=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011951
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0156
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southern LA...Coastal MS/AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012000Z - 020200Z

SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of elevated convection capable of
1.5"-1.75"/hr tracking through a few I-10 urban centers may result
in localized spots up to 3" through early overnight. Flash
flooding incidents remain possible.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a potent shortwave emanating
from northwest Mexico and the Southwest is starting to
shear/elongate into a broader long-wave trof as it moves into
confluent flow due to the broader northern stream digging trough
seen in the Midwest. This is helping to support a strengthening
right entrance region of downstream across the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the 130kt jet over the Tennessee Valley. The
combination of the broad DPVA and divergence aloft supports a
broad southerly flow off the Western Gulf, but veering quickly
through the low to mid-levels for west to east fairly
unidirectional to support a repeating environment for activity.

The surface front/boundary has shifted offshore for most location
along the Upper Texas coast through the Central Gulf coast, with
exception of possibly the Bird's Foot of SE Mississippi. Solid
northeasterly flow north of the boundary is helping to steepen the
isentropic slope and further enhanced moisture flux convergence.=20
The higher theta-E and modest lapse rates allows for 500-1000 J/kg
of MUCAPE that hugs the coast, so scattered elevated cells will
continue to exist. Overall moisture availability of .75-.9" of
sfc to 850mb PW is noted in CIRA LPW suite but mid-level moisture
remains elevated as well to keep TPW between 1.75-2" throughout
the next few hours to aid rainfall production/efficiency for these
elevated cells. As such, intense cores followed by light to
moderate rain, with additional rounds allow for spotty 1-3" totals
mainly coming in those bursts. Given the number of larger urban
centers along I-10, increases intersection with impermeable
surfaces increasing run-off potential. So while most of the
broader swamps and lower wetlands are not likely to be at risk of
FFG exceedance resulting in flash flooding; rapid inundation in
urban centers may result in localized flash flooding.=20=20

It should be noted, as the core of the shortwave and divergence
aloft shifts eastward toward sunset, the height-falls supports a
weak surface wave and northward advection of the front perhaps
back into far SE LA. This suggests some surface based convection
potential will exist toward 00-02z, which would have higher
rainfall rate potential up to 2"/hr. Confidence is not extremely
high in this evolution, but there is ample loose agreement in CAM
solution for some slightly higher concern in SE LA later this
evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8vxmsO1STn8G8hwO6S6HaKxFBncSnAD0m4SaKAQqXlY8Or3E_Tq3WWIqEJDxeybaTRpt= 1w2MvvWwt4L5ij4etfU2He4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31108803 30898752 30298754 30128858 29708878=20
29008895 28868973 28979092 29439247 29539380=20
29359435 29079493 28489601 28899641 29539630=20
30289651 30459554 30599338 30749165 30759049=20
30858950 30918892=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031728
FFGMPD
FLZ000-032325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0157
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 PM EDT Sun May 03 2026

Areas affected...southeastern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031726Z - 032325Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage through
the afternoon across southern FL. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches (locally higher) may occur across isolated sections of the
urban southeastern corridor due to cell mergers and brief upstream
development.

DISCUSSION...17Z surface observations and visible satellite
imagery showed a cold front from just south of FLL to ~20 miles
south of MKY (marked by strengthening northerly winds and dewpoint
falls) with a pre-frontal trough/outflow boundary extending from
south of the Keys to just south of Great Abaco in the Bahamas. The
southern boundary was acting as the effective front with northerly
winds at the surface and cooler surface temperatures, but VAD wind
data indicated that the rain-cooled boundary was only 1-2 kft
deep. 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data indicated that the environment
over southern FL consisted of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (slightly
higher MUCAPE) and PWs near 2 inches (near/above SPC sounding
climatological daily max at MFL)

In addition, effective bulk shear of 40-45 kt was sufficient for
storm organization with the potential for supercells and
multicells. Average cell motions should remain progressive,
following the deeper layer mean wind from the WSW at 20-30 kt, but
organized cells could deviate right of the mean wind. In the upper
levels, the right-entrance region of a strong sub-tropical jet
departing from off of the coast of the Southeast may continue to
provided added support for ascent across southern FL into the
evening hours.

Given the shallow nature of the stable layer at the surface,
breaks in clouds could allow some surface-based cells to form
should sufficient heating through cloud cover occur. Regardless of
where cells are rooted, eastward tracking thunderstorms are
expected to develop and increase in coverage, perhaps quickly, in
the 18-21Z time frame following peak diurnal heating and recent
HRRR/RRFS forecasts. Upstream redevelopment will be possible given
an unstable southerly component to the inflow, with potential for
1-2 inch hourly rainfall and storm totals of 2 to 4 inches
(isolated higher rates/totals possible). Given mostly dry
antecedent conditions across southern FL (with a few exceptions),
any flash flooding that occurs should be isolated and likely urban
in nature.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4S5Kv2Jp5oiJPUJK2fgyCbkfmsNuQoYI3fmcIXrW81MJvcnLbXwl7KveBSQd4cyLQPXG= 4id5BSZKhC2GHYboy-PG204$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27037996 26737974 25997978 25387999 25238015=20
25258039 25528053 26458042 26988014=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060100
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060658-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0158
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060058Z - 060658Z

SUMMARY...Increased thunderstorm coverage along and ahead of a
migrating cold front will intersect a modestly unstable
environment capable of enhanced rates that could lead to localized
flash flooding. Total rainfall between 2-4" will be plausible in
the hardest hit areas with the greatest threat aligned within the
Memphis metro into portions of northeast Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Current radar and satellite composite indicates the
advancement of a cold front to the north and northwest of the
Lower Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low progged near the
OK/AR border. Increased 85H wind field ahead of the surface wave
is indicative of a budding LLJ that will act to enhance regional
shear profiles and low-level convergence along and ahead of the
advancing cold front. Latest HRRR/RAP boundary layer convergence
signal is quite robust across north-central AR, extending
northeast into western TN with a general alignment right along the
front as it slowly advances to the south-southeast. Prevalent
moisture ahead of the front is well-documented as dew points
nestle into the mid and upper-60s with areal PWAT anomalies
settled between 1-2 deviations above normal according to the
GEFS/NAEFS anomaly outputs. Modest MUCAPE on the order of 750-1500
J/kg will be positioned ahead of the cold front which when coupled
with the deep layer moisture will entice heavier precip cores
capable of producing hourly rates between 1-2"/hr in the strongest
cells.

There is a general agreement on a crescendo of convective
development between now and 06z this evening with the heaviest
precip focused across east-central AR extending into southwestern
TN. This would put the Memphis metro corridor and surrounding
counties in the best convergent pattern capable of the higher
rainfall totals which was expressed within the latest HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicating the higher probs for >2"
centered over southwest TN. This area has already experienced a
period of heavier rainfall earlier today leading to some priming
of the top soil layer which would make for a bit of an easier time
to initiate run off capabilities. The urban center of Memphis also
draws for an enhanced run off threat, so the coupling of the
priming and impervious surfaces should give way to a greater flash
flood threat in the metro, at least from a local perspective.

Thunderstorms will continue to slowly migrate southeast with the
cold front through the evening with a wave of convection likely to
extend back over the I-30 corridor in AR. The approach of the weak
surface low will also provide a localized convergence footprint
capable of heavy rainfall and flash flood prominence as the low
continues its progression east-northeastward. This signal will
likely carry beyond the 6hr period with impacts likely to occur
even beyond 06z for areas further south and east across AR/TN/MS.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-63y0jxHNe6PbJnpBgj-GkcnJmfYgcEmX2C68TeyzKVV-JDRuhXr98FJWxalN34FMZwr= 4rzP7UPlJZRksYtYCIYSiy4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37038915 37008852 36948798 36938750 36708711=20
36388709 36078757 35738819 35448852 35268871=20
35068903 34848960 34659053 34579165 34639272=20
34929319 35459315 35849270 36269156 36429094=20
36619044 36768998 36878949=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060722
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-061320-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 AM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Central AR, Southwest TN, Northern MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060720Z - 061320Z

SUMMARY...Convection developing along and just north of a
southward-moving surface front will pose an isolated flash flood
threat through 13Z across portions of central AR into southwest TN
and northern MS. Fast storm motions parallel to the boundary will
allow for brief periods of training, with localized rainfall
totals of 2 to 3 inches possible where upscale growth occurs.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery and surface observations
indicate convection developing along and north of a surface
frontal boundary draped across central Arkansas into southwest
Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Ascent is being heavily driven
by strong frontogenesis in the surface to 925 mb layer, which is
fostering enhanced low-level convergence. Concurrently, strong 925
mb moisture transport is being directed squarely into this frontal
zone, providing ample fuel for precipitation production.

The thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly supportive
of robust updrafts along the boundary. Recent mesoanalysis
indicates a modest destabilization trend, with MUCAPE values
increasing by roughly 400 J/kg over the past 3 hours. Absolute
MUCAPE values now range from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. The warm sector
ahead of the boundary remains strongly capped, effectively
confining the convective development and heavy rainfall threat to
the frontal zone itself or the immediate cool side to its north.

Individual cell motions are relatively fast from west to east.
Because these motions are largely aligned parallel to the
orientation of the frontal boundary, there is an inherent risk for
training convection. However, a key mitigating factor is the
continuous southward progression of the front itself, which should
serve to limit the duration of this training at any single
location.

Ultimately, the flash flood risk will depend heavily on the degree
of upscale convective development along and just behind the
advancing front. If sufficient consolidation occurs to maximize
the brief training window, localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3
inches are possible, which could overwhelm sensitive basins or
poor drainage areas. There are some signs of this beginning to
occur across central AR. Given the progressive nature of the
boundary and the fast individual cell motions, the overall flash
flood threat should generally remain isolated through 13Z.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7IZMgGMW-dCFh9n9aLw6av-YCpHQiznnrA9h3YptSbuiqDg52PNhquLFeVGSJCB9Hr-G= Znd7P_G0Kv1FU2fo9q4033M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...LZK...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35868789 35698689 35168615 34728757 34448992=20
34179209 34079284 34179331 34299379 34579379=20
34989272 35239181 35688956 35768878=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061927
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-070125-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0160
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Far East TX through much of LA, MS, and western
AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061925Z - 070125Z

SUMMARY...Increasing threat of heavy rainfall with scattered to
widespread convective development initiating ahead of a
slow-moving cold front to the north. Primed environmental
conditions will allow for locally enhanced rainfall rates with
totals approaching 2-4" in some of the heavier cells that develop.
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite composite indicate a rapidly
growing convective initiation regime across areas of far eastern
TX extending northeast through LA/MS/AL. A cold front situated
over east TX through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the
northern tier of AL/MS will continue to slowly sag southward with
multiple areas of surface low pressure riding along the front in
the process. First surface low is analyzed across east TX with an
enhanced convergence pattern centered to the east of the low as
flow remains backed within the area situated between the TX/LA
border north of the Lower Sabine. Area MUCAPE is between 2000-3000
J/kg in this location according to the latest mesoanalysis along
with a moisture rich environment signaled by PWAT anomalies ~2
standard deviations above normal, a testament to a deep moist
convective environment suitable for locally enhanced rates and
potential for areas to see a quick couple inches of rainfall
during impact. 12z HREF was quite robust in the signal for
neighborhood probs of >1"/hr at times with a swath of 50-80% probs
located from the TX/LA line to points northeast through much of MS
into western AL. This correlates well with the boundary layer
convergence anticipated along and ahead of the approaching cold
front as the front approaches the fairly buoyant environment
further south.

The other area of interest within this setup is across northeast
MS into northern and western AL where the second surface wave will
continue to migrate to the northeast leading to a general foci for
convective development under the lows influence. Like areas
further southwest with the low in TX, there will be an narrow
corridor of enhanced convective potential within the locally
backed flow centered just to the east and northeast of the surface
wave's trajectory. The good news for this area is the front will
migrate through the region and begin to provide a drier theta_E
advection pattern on the backside of the low. However, the narrow
corridor of elevated theta_E's analyzed over northeast MS into
northern AL should still be sufficient for locally heavy rain
cores, noted very well within the latest 18z WoFS iteration that
is consistent with its signature of a band of heavier convection
forming in the aforementioned area.

The general setup for the entire area encompassed by the MPD will
be suitable for heavy precip totals between 2-4" in the hardest
hit areas with hourly rates between 1-2"/hr in the strongest
cells. This is well-documented on the consistent signatures via
the latest HRRR iterations, as well as the noted prob fields from
the 12z HREF where CAMs were consistent in the potential between
now and 01z in this corridor of the Southeastern CONUS.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4xgFQaQWgnaGyzrHGv0cZaz6XRVw-aumE4Cx9XYIX3ZuO3zj74cHtpdiLAv0gi_yr_oi= M46WdOs1EpE3OyKaf3J3U8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34728734 34258671 33348667 32618703 32048788=20
31728853 31468925 31229027 30869157 30589263=20
30439371 30399448 30879466 31379435 31879363=20
32109284 32399221 32619180 32909112 33249038=20
33698949 34238869 34588778=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070101
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-070658-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0161
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Central LA, Central and Southern MS/AL, and
Western GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070058Z - 070658Z

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms will spread across the
Southeastern U.S. with a heightened threat of training as the cold
front continues to advance south through Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and Georgia. Accumulations of 2-4 inches of rainfall,
locally higher, are expected in areas of training leading to
likely flash flooding as soils are primed from earlier rainfall.

DISCUSSION...The 21z surface analysis continues to convey the
methodical southern motion of a now wavy quasi-stationary front
situated across the northern half of the Southeast CONUS. Multiple
surface lows are embedded within the frontal structure with one
still slowly ejecting eastward out of east TX, and the other
analyzed over northern AL. The former area of low pressure will
play a significant role in the convective evolution this evening
as the low-level convergence regime amplifies into something more
appreciable in regards to focusing convection over a more defined
area. CAMs continue to be steadfast in their representation of the
environment and synoptic scale evolution providing a solid
consensus for where the heaviest rainfall will transpire as we
move through the overnight period.

Current environmental status remains very favorable with
prevailing axis of elevated MLCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg situated
ahead of the stationary front from southwest LA through western
GA. Deep layer moisture remains prevalent over much of the
Southeast with PWAT anomalies solidly between 2-3 standard
deviations above normal. Mean layer flow will run more parallel to
the boundary as it slowly migrates southward through the evening
leading to general convective forward propagation to overlap with
each other as they progress through the evening. Upper level
dynamics remain favorable, as well as a broad upper trough passing
to the north will maintain reputable large scale ascent within the right-entrance region of a 140kt upper jet crossing through the
Mississippi Valley. Nocturnal LLJ centered over southern MS
extending into AL will only provide increasing low-level
convergence and relevant bulk shear to maintain stronger
mesocyclone cores that can provide heavier rainfall over extended
periods of their life cycle(s).

Considering the above factors, rainfall rates this evening will
likely exceed 1"/hr in the stronger cells with 2-3"/hr well within
reach despite the loss of diurnal destabilization. Even as cells
begin the merger process and become a more cohesive, multi-cell
structure, heavy rain with 1-2"/hr areal averages will certainly
be plausible which will lead to widespread areas of 2-4" of
rainfall with locally higher totals possible as inferred by
low-end HREF probabilities for >5" centered over southeast MS into south-central AL to the AL/GA line. Secondary maxima could also
occur further northeast into northwestern GA, including
potentially close to the Atlanta metro where some CAMs are
relatively bullish with heavy rain prospects in the urban
corridor. The greatest threat is still likely further south and
west, but the setup is still relevant for those areas downstream
into the northwest quarter of GA. Areas of highest concern are
likely within the confines of Laurel, MS over to Montgomery, AL to
near Columbus, GA spreading 50-75 miles either side of that line.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9juSkWDhsmkz1MRnOj1yQ-t0fCsAXwyH-PM2n0P0IkqgFYj8RZ7-4PRxOoWPXAvWT3TO= oY0eMYkM_EgNAjVfptgmZ0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...
SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34908514 34808461 34628420 34308401 33938385=20
33418392 32848431 32378464 32068520 31748605=20
31378698 31168791 31038901 30928992 30959150=20
31079277 31769269 32429175 32879071 33218969=20
34198708 34458635 34708575=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070650
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-071247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0162
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EDT Thu May 07 2026

Areas affected...southern Alabama, far southwestern Georgia,
southeastern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070647Z - 071247Z

Summary...Areas of training thunderstorms are likely to continue
for the next several hours, with isolated instances of flash
flooding possible through 13Z/8a CDT.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms continue to move eastward
across the discussion area at around 40 knots while producing
areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. The heaviest of rain rates are
currently displaced just south and east of where heavier rain fell
earlier today near Montgomery/Selma and near Collins, MS --
although deep convection continues to redevelop across
southeastern Mississippi along and just ahead of a synoptic front
extending from Baton Rouge through Meridian to near Birmingham.=20 Moist/unstable thermodynamic profiles and low-level/850mb
confluence will continue to support new updraft development across
southeastern Mississippi for several hours, with storms spreading
eastward through southern Alabama and far southwestern Georgia
through 13Z this morning.

Any flash flood risk within this regime will exist 1) where
convective training is most pronounced within the discussion area
and 2) where scattered convection can repeat across the Montgomery/Selma/Collins areas where prior rainfall has lowered
FFGs to near zero. Given the magnitude of prior rainfall in some
of these areas, flood impacts may still be ongoing and could be
exacerbated locally. New instances of flash flooding are also
possible. Local rainfall totals of 2-3 inches are likely through
13Z - particularly from Laurel/Hattiesburg eastward to Troy, AL
and areas near/south of Columbus, GA.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!547HLYTGdFVIf4LHXnULs5IQlRg9YYGJNsX4HsCB5q50E3nC0aZU0ZbAVESd0Tm5JHpO= RpmZ09Ex7eF54TfgUkI7470$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33548583 33178442 32328375 31438378 30878454=20
30908730 30778950 31188994 31668978 32348879=20
33178731=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081146
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0163
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
745 AM EDT Fri May 08 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Texas...Southern Louisiana...Southwest Mississippi...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081145Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Early morning elevated thunderstorms with potential to
train this morning pose narrow axis of 2-4" totals and isolated
flash flooding concerns near urban and areas of recent heavy
rainfall.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad positive tilt closed
low across the southwest with a nicely shaped anti-cyclonic
downstream shortwave ridge across central TX into confluent flow
regime across the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley. This places the surface front stalled along south and
parallel of the Texas Gulf Coast before angling northward to a
weak surface wave south of Houma, LA. CIRA LPW denotes the
anomalously high sfc to 850mb moisture pooled along and north of
the front generating a very tight gradient across southeast TX and
across central LA. The 850-700 and 700-500mb layers are also
complimentary to total PW values aligned across the area of
concern that values of 1.75-2" exist between the surface front and
the surface coastal pressure trof that goes from KNOG to KTME
before crossing that tight PW gradient near KJAS to KAQV in
western LA.

Surface to boundary layer onshore flow is providing weak but
sufficient WAA before veering to the southwest through the 850mb
layer to provide sufficient convergence and isentropic ascent
across the boundary to access the larger well of conditionally
unstable air with MUCAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg...which extends
eastward along and south of the PW gradient along and north of
I-10 through E LA into S MS. As such, RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um
depicts solid convective initiation along and south of the tight
gradient which further helps to steepen vertical ascent plane.=20
The overall depth of moisture is already supporting isolated to
scattered .5-1"/hr rates but this will continue to increase with
coverage and moistening of the mid-level profiles. Additionally,
with some surface heating, a few nearer surface based cells with
higher rate potentials to 1.75-2"/hr may develop over the next 3-4
hours along or even south of the I-10 corridor.

As mentioned, the deeper layer flow flattens west to east into the
confluence downstream generally parallel to the boundary/ascent
plane to support a favorable opportunity for repeating/training
(especially further east into LA). This may allow for narrow
streaks of 2-3+", with an isolated 4" total not out of the realm
of possibility. Generally sandy soils and naturally high FFG in
the region from overall drought should help to mitigate most of
the heavy rainfall. However, there are is a axis of reduced FFG
values especially from Vernon to Rapides to Concordia parish in LA
and portions of SW MS that are recovering from heavy rainfall
36-48rs ago as well as a number of prone urban centers along the
area of concern that would be more susceptible to possible
incident or two of localized flash flooding this morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!43JR2EjvKq_jQoiS8RC6iUhu4LPNsWcKcFQbrska-jrXiE-1twdbCM1a0Q4QEXPzapcP= RrLTQOglDchUGoLCPjpO9WE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31669219 31519034 31208953 30788938 30308968=20
30129069 30159225 30159283 30059469 30149581=20
30449631 30959639 31329594 31559489 31629321=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081625
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-082230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Fri May 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana...Southern
Mississippi...Coastal Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081630Z - 082230Z

SUMMARY...Continued risk of possible urban and localized flash
flooding with new axis of training development as initial band
slowly weakens across S MS/S AL. Streak of 2-4" totals and
occasional rate over 2"/hr along I-10 corridor.=20

DISCUSSION...Very little has changed in the overall synoptic
environment and placement of the surface stationary front parallel
to the TX coast before angling toward the SE portions of LA before
likewise angling eastward. The upper-level divergence has
slightly up-ticked as well just downstream of the synoptic
shortwave ridge in E TX, but the low-level flow has increased
about 10-15 kts from the southwest particularly in the boundary
layer to 850mb. This has resulted in increased convergence at a
slightly lower elevation across far SE TX into SW LA and with
greater boundary layer depth of moisture and its flux, intensity
of rainfall rates will be increasing as well with occasional
breaches of the 2"/hr rates given TPW nearing 2.0" (loaded mainly
below 850mb) and MUCAPEs over 1000 J/kg. As this new has
strengthend, the more elevated convection has been robbed and
coverage is reducing along the upstream edge with only the leading
edge convection maintaining across S MS, trending toward far S AL.


The broader west to east ascent plane has also increased the
overall coverage to allow for steering flow to support slightly
better training/repeating profiles in proximity to the I-10
corridor. Hi-Res CAMs have struggled a bit with the overall
orientation and convective initiation, but the last few RRFS
solutions appear to be most in line with the recent trends
followed by the 12z ARW. This suggests further training potential
along I-10 with an eventual weak cold pool to perhaps deviate cell
motions a bit south of due east alluding the potential for
intersecting even as far south as I-8 increasing intersection with
the prone urban regions of the area.=20

Unlike, further north in central LA/S MS, I-10 and south have been
missed in prior events and FFG values are naturally at the highest
values and may still be out of reach for broader flash
flooding/rapid inundation potential, though isolated localized
exceedance is possible. However, intersection with urban centers
is more likely and therefore flash flooding remains more probable
in those areas through the late afternoon/early evening.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_VWBFItyO23ZtJog41Nwsw-8rqH4Ayaz11KtYmqdGVjSQ3tQY3yh1uBdt87CZ58pMHBH= aIHNNHW_jxwhmKqGqplJUkg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31368957 31228831 31018769 30268757 29978891=20
29578976 29789113 29879206 29969301 30209360=20
30789342 31089261 31349100=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090914
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-091512-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0165
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
512 AM EDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi,
southern Alabama, and far western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090912Z - 091512Z

Summary...Areas of convection (with scattered
mergers/backbuilding) will pose a flash flood risk through 15Z/10a
Central this morning.

Discussion...Scattered convection has organized into a mix of
clusters and linear segments along a couple axes -- one extending
from near Natchitoches, LA to Jackson, MS to west-central AL and
another, more scattered band from near Natchez, MS to near
Slidell, LA. These cells were moving eastward at an appreciable
clip (30-35 kt), but were being sustained by appreciable mid-level
instability and 1.75 inch PW values. The loosely organized nature
of the cells was supporting occasional training and mergers, with
spots of 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates focused primarily in northern
Louisiana over the past half hour to hour. FFGs in this region
were high (around 3-4 inch/hr), suggestive of only an isolated
flash flood risk (at best) in the short term.

With time, cells will migrate/evolve east-southeastward toward
portions of southern Mississippi that have received 3-6 inches of
rainfall over the past 72 hours. Soil moistures are wetter here,
and FFGs are somewhat lower (near 2 inches/hr in spots). Portions
of southern Louisiana have lower FFGs from prior rain (around 1
inch/hr) as well. The slow northward drift of a remnant outflow
from earlier convection (and attendant surface-based instabilty)
will probably interact with ongoing convection favorably for more
mergers and localized training as cells migrate
east-southeastward, with rain rates over 2 inch/hr expected in a
few spots (supported by abundant PW values). Areas of flash
flooding are possible, and the overall risk will increase in the
aforementioned areas (esp. southern LA/MS) between 10Z-15Z this
morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9ZPHGrCo880vNxE2xZX0vXQcnQSi5Mda1AJTNWBlQcRSG2pf8LyinmjcgWhZy1nE0bVR= udUPzDc1cSTJMSyXyv-N29M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32938887 32498711 32278640 31948583 31048582=20
30548756 30058985 30019105 30469219 30889319=20
32419374 32689303 32649166 32769048=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091658
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0166
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1258 PM EDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern LA...Far Southeast TX..

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091700Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Continued flash flooding potential with over-running in
southern LA. New convection across SE TX/W LA may be more
pulse-like with cell mergers capable of a very quick 2" burst.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and surface observations depict
orthogonal ascent from the core of the moisture axis (TPW at
2-2.15") over cold pool centered over SE LA. Surface easterlies
further help sharped the boundary with additionally rain-cooled
air from the over-running convection, as such a few more hours of
scattered isentropic convection will likely occur. The
orientation of the ascent streamers will allow for narrow streaks
of enhanced totals with values of 2-3.5" probable, falling over
areas already affected with 2-3" so far this morning. However,
the parent shortwave from the northern stream now, well displaced
into the Southeast over AL/GA, is still sliding east-southeast and
the moisture axis and remaining weak LLJ will continue to drift
southeastward relative to the current activity further into the
Bayous of S central and SE LA.

However, upstream energy in the form of a strengthening right
entrance region to a 100kt 3H jet streak can be seen by well
defined anticyclonically curved upper cirrus pattern over far E TX
into NW LA at this time. At the surface the old outflow boundary
remains weakly defined across west-central to central LA and will
likely remain the focus of some convective activity.=20
Unfortunately, the influence of the downstream shortwave is
pooling away the main warm-conveyor belt and there only remains a
narrow pocket of enhanced surface to 850 and to 700mb per CIRA LPW
with drier air mixing in aloft. This helps with some increased
instability as 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE pool exists across E TX.=20
Weaker flow into the complex, even with backing low level flow
responding to the divergence aloft, suggests convective mode may
be a bit more pulse-like with scattered clusters and propagation
along collapsing outflow boundaries through the afternoon. The
amount of moisture should allow for solid efficiency with spots of
2-2.5"/hr (similar totals) possible across SE TX and West-central
LA. Flash flooding will remain an isolated potential given
recent heavy rainfall, wetter soils (especially east in LA) or
over urban locales. As such, while the coverage and overall
intensity is reducing; the risk of a few incidents of flash
flooding remain across the MPD area of concern through late
afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hmqYYdh83CPtvPCxBRtf8ONeYLcxyfqprb9Oo4-kw5TbkHkHQgA3AsosaeCiCHlXOd7= cq_UfLiaWIRjSVTSSXeKPW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31389302 31089232 30719144 30359070 30079019=20
29668970 29168963 28929013 29089129 29709306=20
30059433 30909437 31289399=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102050
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...central/northern AR into southwestern TN/northern
MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102048Z - 110100Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms, some of which will be slow
moving, are expected to continue to pose a widely scattered flash
flood threat across portions of the Lower MS Valley over the next
3-4 hours. Hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches could allow for a few
isolated 3-5 inch totals within a 2-3 hour window.

Discussion...2030Z radar imagery over AR showed an expanding
coverage of thunderstorms with a few of the cells exhibiting
backbuilding toward the west and slow overall movement, resulting
in MRMS-derived hourly rainfall between 2-3 inches. A few of the
cells were forming along a number of boundaries, including a
diffuse stationary front that extended from south-central AR into
north-central MS, marked by dewpoints in the mid-60s to lower 70s
south of the boundary with dewpoints falling off into the 50s from
TN into northern MS, north of the front. Meanwhile a stronger cold
front to the north and rain-cooled air from eastern OK were
marking the northern and western edge of the short term heavy rain
threat. Lift across the region was being enhanced by placement
within the right-entrance region of an upper jet max extending
from MO into southern IL.

SPC mesoanalysis data from 20Z showed MLCAPE of 500 to just over
1500 J/kg along with PWs of 1.3 to 1.6 inches. Sufficient speed
sheer was present for some organization to cells but their
residence time over any given location appears to be limited to
approximately 1-2 hours given undercutting of rain-cooled air at
the surface. The threat should end from NW to SE with time, but
this means locations near and just east of the MS River could see
slow cell movement and possible flash flooding extending beyond
00Z. Given the observed rates so far, high rain rates could lead
to a couple of isolated to widely scattered locations picking up 3
to 5 inches of rain over the next few hours, supporting a
short-fused flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4XY2s_KzLP8N_fZaXXeM7LRui2aPxS8vQkKhPihvBv54c60VuieKyI4IYQ0bdeuJX0DW= 700y-61tvcIiATgOLgb4hZI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35919340 35899243 35659011 35178917 34378872=20
33498890 32928924 32938999 33159121 33499225=20
33849293 34189327 35119331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102323
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0168
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
722 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102321Z - 110500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible across portions of central to eastern TX through 05Z
(12 AM CDT). Slow moving and/or merging of cells are expected to
produce hourly rainfall of 2-3 inches and a few locations with
storm total rainfall of 3 to 5+ inches.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery through 23Z over TX and LA showed
thunderstorms becoming more numerous over southeastern TX into
southwestern LA, along a sea breeze enhanced convergence axis
(trough axis) at the surface, which extended westward from the
southern TX/LA border toward I-35 just north of AUS. Farther north
and west, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms were ongoing
ahead of a southward sinking cold front which extended
southwestward from northern TX into the Big Bend region and along
an outflow boundary that preceded the cold front, extending
west-east from near Coleman to Nacogdoches. SPC mesoanalysis data
showed the environment across central TX was quite unstable with
MLCAPE of 1500 to 3000+ J/kg and PWS that ranged from about 1.3 to
1.6 inches.

A general southeastward progression is expected regarding the
ongoing thunderstorms ahead of the cold front and preceding
outflow boundary as these boundaries continue to sink south, ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough axis from KS to eastern NM.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms are likely to increase in coverage from
southeastern into central TX, along the trough axis as low level
flow increases beyond 00Z. Some of these storms could be slow
moving with backbuilding characteristics due to the weak 0-6 km
mean layer wind over the region (<10 kt) and increasing 0-1 km
winds from the southeast across the Coastal Plain of TX. These
slow moving storms are expected to eventually merge with an
approaching cluster of thunderstorms with the advancing cold
front/outflow from the northwest. Peak hourly rainfall of 2-3
inches (locally higher) is likely with slow moving and merging of
cells, with potential for a few locations to pick up 3 to 5+
inches of total rainfall through 05Z.

Flash flood guidance varies across the region with high 3-hr
values of 3 to 5+ inches in 3 hours to the east of I-35; lower FFG
values for the Edwards Plateau. Therefore, despite the potential
for high rainfall values, the flash flood threat will be most
focused across urban locations and otherwise sensitive terrain
west of I-35.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6bNzcVc7Z3vjDySNFQrektLOtDSC7LddZSpJrHTlW1yoFAg37i8IYCMmPVEDnjAXDu6G= 3ntMeWc8YPeONwcNu2VqSko$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32109793 31899619 31479428 30239416 29919577=20
29539695 29049824 28349952 28700060 30930069=20
31869979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110515
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-110813-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0169
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Areas affected...central/east Texas into far western Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110513Z - 110813Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will continue for at least 2-3
more hours (through 08Z/3a central).

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues especially in east
Texas. A slow-moving mesoscale convective complex has matured,
with individual cells exhibiting speeds of around 5-15 knots amid
a strengthening mid-level circulation over central Texas.=20
Meanwhile, remnant outflow boundaries/surface troughing downstream
of the complex has fostered areas of scattered convective
development especially near College Station eastward to near
Leesville, LA/Fort Johnson. The slow movement of cells amid an
abundantly moist environment (1.5 inch PW values) and lingering
surface-based instability has supported several areas of 2+
inch/hr rain rates at times. These rain rates have approached FFG
thresholds on an isolated basis along with a few instances of
flash flooding reported west of College Station.

Ongoing trends suggest flash flood potential should continue for
at least another 2-3 hours. The downstream airmass supporting
convection remains moderately unstable (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE),
with convection continuing to refire both with the leading edge of
the MCS and along the aforementioned east-west oriented boundaries
across the region. FFG thresholds get generally higher with
eastward extent however -- suggesting that any continued flash
flood threat should remain concentrated near any low spots and/or
urban areas that can experience 2+ inch/hr rain rates or have
those rates extend for a period longer than 1 hour. The latter is
possible on an isolated basis given the slow movement of cells.=20
Over time, convection should approach the southeast Texas coast
and move toward the northwestern Gulf, reducing flash flood
potential thereafter.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-kcZPk_hmksR4wRcqDDmW0zeAK6VJNmkzYGSX7vtSCjh8LjH3KMlrdrC1wXjdsNBXz72= uoPGKIDYJLtTMfv1L_7W2fI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31559469 31309277 30249237 29639336 29349544=20
29539691 31049679=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112043
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0170
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Areas affected...southern LA into southern MS/southwestern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112041Z - 120215Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will pose a flash flood threat
from southwestern LA into southern MS and far southwestern LA.
Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and localized totals of 3 to 5+
inches are expected.

Discussion...Radar imagery across southern LA at 2030Z showed slow
moving thunderstorms stretching from near a surface low (southeast
of LCH) into southern MS/AL (just south of a HZR to PIB line),
near a slow moving cold front. Water vapor imagery showed a well
defined shortwave advancing east from eastern TX, providing ascent
across southern LA. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed the region
contained 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and anomalously high PWs at 1.6
to 2.0 inches (1-2 standard deviations above the mean for
mid-May).

Thunderstorms are likely to continue expanding along the front and
near the surface low with a general eastward translation to
convection with time. In addition, thinning cloud cover in the
vicinity and south of Lake Pontchartrain may allow for locally
increased instability and potential for thunderstorms into the
early evening. Effective bulk shear ranged from <20 to >40 kt
across the region and coupled with the modest instability in
place, cell organization should be mixed, but widespread
organization is not expected.

Two big factors for flash flooding through the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening hours will be slow cell motions (0-6 km
mean layer winds are <10 kt) and wet antecedent conditions. Given
large portions of the central Gulf Coast to locations 100 miles
inland have received 300 to 600 percent of their average rainfall
over the past week, increased soil moisture will be more prone to
runoff and flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9e_GRW-GZUafZx1F4F7F4oKFue8kwmv3mEvMkrNnJN7cZEq0V88hNTtunm6eQdxjTJaR= -yySiDSE8VPsMQMKsZv0kfo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31648790 31258761 30838770 30338797 29668956=20
29549070 29459270 29729335 30229355 30719323=20
31029203 31309087 31528911=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 120228
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0171
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Areas affected...central/east-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 120226Z - 120730Z

Summary...Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected
along portions of the central to east-central Gulf Coast through
07Z. Isolated flash flooding will remain possible due to hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and localized totals of 3 to 5+ inches.

Discussion...Heavy rain remained in a few locations over
southeastern LA as of 02Z with a small cluster of largely
warm-topped showers/thunderstorms southwest of Lake Pontchartrain
with MRMS-derived peak hourly rainfall between 2 and 3 inches. The
00Z LIX sounding showed a moist environment with at PW of 1.9
inches and only 5 kt of 0-6 km mean layer flow, supportive of slow
cell movement. Instability was weak, however, with only 280 J/kg
MLCAPE on the LIX sounding. Over the past hour, there has been
some eastward development of localized heavy rain cores through
southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. These appear to be
focused along a low level axis of convergence, just above the
surface, represented in 925 mb VAD wind plots, extending from near
Lake Pontchartrain into the FL Panhandle. Aloft, a potent mid to
upper-level shortwave was noted on water vapor imagery just east
of the Sabine River. Divergent flow aloft was focused just ahead
of the shortwave and associated jet axis across southeastern LA
into southern MS, aiding lift over the region.

As the shortwave continues to move east tonight, ascent will
translate downstream along the Gulf Coast, with embedded areas of
heavy rain likely following suit. Given the moist environment (PWs
of 1.6 to 1.9 inches), with warm-layer depths of 3500-4000 m,
efficient rainfall will be likely with hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+
inches at times and possibly 3 to 5 inches within a 2-3 hour
period. While weak instability (less than 1000 J/kg) will limit
the coverage of heavy rain, small pockets of flash flood potential
will remain a possibility over at least the next 3-5 hours.
Another consideration is the higher than average rainfall over the
past 1-2 weeks across a good portion of the region which may leave
locations more prone to runoff compared to average.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tHGKIWrR5_z1HT4s_Ux8cvKXHhM1-bQm_cW0yKZ84gAO0sPlU85fQeEjNShPtHvgztW= T_aPohfp7eMG3kr7FRmYRu8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31538685 31348491 30798405 30038420 29538512=20
29508610 29818860 29668986 29589045 29829090=20
30359093 30979028 31238915=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130317
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1116 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130315Z - 130715Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection over
south-central Georgia was producing 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just
northwest of Valdosta. These rates could persist for another
couple hours. Flash flooding is possible in the affected areas.

Discussion...A nearly stationary band of convection has exhibited
very slow and erratic movement over areas from near Thomasville to
near Adel. The storms were situated directly beneath an upper low
over the area, which was likely combining with weak, isentropic
ascent to support persistent, shallow updrafts despite marginal
instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses). The overall
scenario for flash flooding was not evolving quickly, and with
peak rain rates exceeding local FFG and prompting modest MRMS
Flash responses, it is likely that local impacts from excessive
runoff are underway in at least a couple of spots.

High-res guidance suggests that storms will weaken through 06Z,
although their current handling of the scenario lends some
uncertainty, and observations suggest that the ongoing threat will
persist beyond 05Z/1a eastern. Additional local totals of 3
inches cannot be ruled out. Conditions will be monitored for
additional flash flood potential beyond 07Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_JLcn6ufdLbr1LKWHMaGV_GlcjUQjllUzR4txnx7YPCTIBOqgqz4DrpREUNqS1s9SB9i= AAZX3tszgbSnyYnhw1xaKOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31508294 31318256 30888274 30568396 30898445=20
31298384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 130323
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-130715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0172
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130315Z - 130715Z

Summary...A nearly stationary band of convection over
south-central Georgia was producing 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates just
northwest of Valdosta. These rates could persist for another
couple hours. Flash flooding is possible in the affected areas.

Discussion...A nearly stationary band of convection has exhibited
very slow and erratic movement over areas from near Thomasville to
near Adel. The storms were situated directly beneath an upper low
over the area, which was likely combining with weak, isentropic
ascent to support persistent, shallow updrafts despite marginal
instability (~500 J/kg MUCAPE per SPC Mesoanalyses). The overall
scenario for flash flooding was not evolving quickly, and with
peak rain rates exceeding local FFG and prompting modest MRMS
Flash responses, it is likely that local impacts from excessive
runoff are underway in at least a couple of spots.

High-res guidance suggests that storms will weaken eventually,
although their current handling of the scenario lends some
uncertainty, and observations suggest that the ongoing threat will
persist beyond 05Z/1a eastern. Additional local totals of 3
inches cannot be ruled out. Conditions will be monitored for
additional flash flood potential beyond 07Z.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6OEC3aqxpJPnrs5VyIuUSgGYeHA44qztazW8scmJQfFPgwotsYc9lVlw8IW_qZ79RjBJ= mhdCFGRJ8j9zGJMO176dvOw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31508294 31318256 30888274 30568396 30898445=20
31298384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
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