ACUS01 KWNS 271651
SWODY1
SPC AC 271650

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this
evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes
(EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large
to very large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley...
Forecast scenario largely unchanged in that a very active severe-weather/tornado day is expected regionally, especially into
late afternoon and this evening. Initially, a relatively long-lived
linear cluster of convection persists at late morning across east-central/south-central Illinois, with additional initially
elevated storms on its eastern/southern periphery, moving from
eastern Illinois into Indiana, with severe hail and damaging winds
persisting as early day hazards.

Over time, air mass will continue to moisten and rapidly destabilize along/south of the MCS-associated outflow from central Missouri into south-central Illinois. A mid/upper-level trough will eject
northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and
middle Mississippi Valley through the period. Low-level mass
response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate
across Minnesota/Wisconsin by this evening, with a warm front
effectively delineated by the morning convection.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70
kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak
heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both
provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells.
Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur
into mid-afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South ahead
of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level
confluence zones in the open warm sector including generally near
the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers southward into the
Mid-South.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes (EF2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of
Missouri into Illinois along/near the effective front. This strong
tornado potential will also likely extend farther south within the
warm sector into the Mid-South.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into
clusters of supercells and then more linear segments with some
increase in damaging wind potential aside from large hail and a
continued multi-mode tornado risk tonight.

...ArkLaTex into Texas...
While storm coverage may trend lesser with southwest extent, the
potential for at least isolated intense storms will exist across the
region. Supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and
occasional damaging winds are expected. Increasing low-level
warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust
thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the
southward-moving cold front.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271951
SWODY1
SPC AC 271949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected from the mid
Mississippi/lower Ohio Valleys into the Mid-South through this
evening, with a threat for multiple strong to intense tornadoes
(EF3+), widespread severe/damaging wind gusts, and scattered large
to very large hail.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Marginal Risk back
into southeastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma to account for storms
initiating over the last hour.

The Moderate Risk remains unchanged with this update. The morning
MCS is now moving through eastern Illinois/southern Indiana. Further
west in Missouri and western Illinois, modifying remnant outflow
remains near the St. Louis Metro. Cumulus south of this boundary
across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, cumulus within
the warm sector is deepening. Increasing MLCAPE/steepening lapse
rates are nosing northward in southern central Missouri and
south-central Illinois.

Just to the west of the Mississippi River, radar shows occasional
attempts at initiation within the open warm sector. While the
details continue to evolve, it likely that a corridor of conditional
threat for strong-intense tornadoes will develop from the Missouri
Bootheel into southern Illinois/western Kentucky. Within this region
strong daytime heating has led to a volatile air mass, with moderate
to strong MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg and strong deep layer shear. VAD
profiles frm PAH (Paducah, KY) and LSX (St. Louis, MO) indicate a
rich SRH environment of around 200-300 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. It
is likely that supercells capable of all hazards, including
strong-intense tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging
winds. Will develop across this region soon. See MCD571 for
additional information.

The conditional threat for strong tornadoes will extend as far south
as the Arklatex into portions of western Tennessee. Through time,
storm mode will shift to become linear with the southward moving
front, which will bring an increase into the evening of damaging
wind threat. Line embedded tornadoes, some of which may be strong,
will continue to be a threat into the evening.

..Thornton.. 04/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026/

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Mid-South/Lower
Mississippi Valley...
Forecast scenario largely unchanged in that a very active severe-weather/tornado day is expected regionally, especially into
late afternoon and this evening. Initially, a relatively long-lived
linear cluster of convection persists at late morning across east-central/south-central Illinois, with additional initially
elevated storms on its eastern/southern periphery, moving from
eastern Illinois into Indiana, with severe hail and damaging winds
persisting as early day hazards.

Over time, air mass will continue to moisten and rapidly destabilize along/south of the MCS-associated outflow from central Missouri into south-central Illinois. A mid/upper-level trough will eject
northeastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest and
middle Mississippi Valley through the period. Low-level mass
response will encourage the primary surface low to consolidate
across Minnesota/Wisconsin by this evening, with a warm front
effectively delineated by the morning convection.

Strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft associated with a 50-70
kt mid-level jet will overspread much of the warm sector by peak
heating, and a 35-45 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will both
provide ample low-level and deep-layer shear to support supercells.
Initially discrete surface-based development appears likely to occur
into mid-afternoon across the mid Mississippi Valley/Mid-South ahead
of the surface cold front, and perhaps along weak low-level
confluence zones in the open warm sector including generally near
the confluence of the Mississippi/Ohio Rivers southward into the
Mid-South.

These supercells will exist in a very favorable environment for
tornadoes through the afternoon and evening, and multiple strong to
intense tornadoes (EF2/3+) appear likely, especially from parts of
Missouri into Illinois along/near the effective front. This strong
tornado potential will also likely extend farther south within the
warm sector into the Mid-South.

By early evening, convection will probably tend to consolidate into
clusters of supercells and then more linear segments with some
increase in damaging wind potential aside from large hail and a
continued multi-mode tornado risk tonight.

...ArkLaTex into Texas...
While storm coverage may trend lesser with southwest extent, the
potential for at least isolated intense storms will exist across the
region. Supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and
occasional damaging winds are expected. Increasing low-level
warm/moist advection tonight could foster additional robust
thunderstorms along the retreating dryline and eventually the
southward-moving cold front.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280101
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms should continue through tonight with a wind and hail
threat. A few tornadoes may still occur, and a couple of strong
tornadoes remain possible.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted 500 mb mid-level trough continues to traverse
the Upper Midwest in tandem with a surface low, supporting a surface
cold front to sweep across the Mid-MS Valley. A persistent elongated
convective system has materialized along the cold front, accompanied
by several embedded and preceding supercells. These storms have a
collective history of severe wind and hail, with some stones
reaching the 2-3 inch diameter range.

Upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, beneath 8+ C/km mid-level
lapse rates, resides ahead of the cold front/storms, yielding over
3000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. Meanwhile, strong mid-level flow
associated with a speed max is overspreading an intensifying (45+
kt) southwesterly low-level jet, resulting in 50+ kts of effective
bulk shear and large/curved low-level hodographs with 300-500 m2/s2
effective SRH (per 00Z mesoanalysis and regional VADs). Supercells
have failed to organize and produce tornadoes up to this point.
However, storms along/ahead of the cold front will continue to
advance eastward toward the low-level jet/shear axis. Therefore, an
uptick in tornado activity may still occur early tonight, especially
with any discrete, sustained supercells that can develop. Discrete
storms may also be accompanied by severe hail, with severe wind
gusts likely with continued linear storm modes.

..Squitieri.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 280601
SWODY1
SPC AC 280559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across
parts Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and
a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs, embedded within a broader
low-amplitude mid-level flow regime, will traverse the central U.S.
today. A surface low and associated cold front will continue to
progress across the OH Valley toward the East Coast during the day.
However, the approach of another mid-level trough over the Ozark
Valley region will encourage either a weak surface low or surface
trough to develop over central TX. This will stall the southward
progression of the surface cold front given appreciable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. Seasonally cold air aloft and
accompanying upper support from multiple embedded mid-level
perturbations will overspread the warm-air advection regime,
supporting several rounds of thunderstorms. Given strong vertical
wind shear over the warm sector, severe storms are likely,
especially over portions of the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley.

...Portions of northern TX into the TN Valley...
A complex severe weather scenario is expected across TX into the TN
Valley through the period, with multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms likely. The first round of storms is currently
initiating over western TX, and may increase in coverage between
12-18Z across central OK into northern TX as a lead mid-level
impulse traverses a WAA regime. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates amid
50+ kts of effective bulk shear will support elevated multicells
capable of producing severe hail. These storms will progress across
the MS Valley through the day. Some guidance indicates that these
storms may evolve into an MCS by afternoon, accompanied by a
damaging gust threat over the Gulf coast states.

Regardless of the evolution of earlier storms, guidance consensus
depicts adequate clearing behind this initial wave over TX into the
Ozark Valley region. Strong surface heating will encourage surface
temperatures to reach 90 F in some locales, amid 70+ F surface
dewpoints. Given 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE should reach
the 2500-4000 J/kg range by mid to late afternoon. By this time, the
primary mid-level trough will overspread the southern Plains,
promoting enough deep-layer ascent for another round of storms to
initiate. Given 50 kts of effective bulk shear and initially
straight hodographs, supercells are expected, accompanied by a
severe hail threat. The most intense supercells may develop over
northern TX and progress eastward, and will be capable of producing
severe hail as large as 3-4 inches in diameter. Given a lingering
low-level jet (supporting elongated hodographs with some low-level
curvature) over the Sabine River Valley, a few dominant/right-moving
supercells may produce a few tornadoes, though the tornado threat
will be conditional on adequate boundary-layer
mixing/destabilization. Later in the afternoon/early evening, severe hail/isolated tornado producing supercells may merge into an MCS,
accompanied by a severe wind threat across the Lower MS Valley.

...Portions of central into southern TX...
Forcing for ascent will be weak across portions of central into
southwestern TX. Nonetheless, 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates will
overspread a well-mixed boundary layer. Tropospheric speed shear
exceeding 40 kts will yield elongated hodographs, so any storm that
can initiate, mature, and sustain itself should be supercellular in
nature, accompanied by a severe hail threat. Any instance of hail
with these storms may include stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter.
Since a second, low-amplitude mid-level impulse will overspread
western and central TX toward the end of the period, isolated
supercell initiation will be possible across portions of central
into southwestern TX late this afternoon into early (12Z) Wednesday
morning.

..Squitieri/Moore.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281202
SWODY1
SPC AC 281200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
With large-scale upper troughing anchored over the Plains and
central Canada, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will eject
eastward across the southern/central Plains to the lower/mid MS
Valleys by this evening. Rich low-level moisture continues to spread
northward from TX into southern OK this morning in tandem with a
low-level jet, and this trend should continue downstream into the
lower MS Valley through the day as a warm front lifts northward to a
weak surface low across the Ozarks. Another surface low will remain
over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southwestward to the Big
Bend region.

A strongly unstable airmass exists across the southern Plains to the
ArkLaTex, along and near a slowly retreating/northward-returning
warm front. Elevated supercells are ongoing across western north TX.
This activity is being aided by lift and strong deep-layer shear
associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough, and
low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for these
supercells to continue posing a threat for mainly large to very
large hail through the rest of the morning as they spread
east-northeastward across north TX/southern OK. But, eventual
clustering and a greater damaging wind threat may materialize into
the afternoon as this convection crosses the front and accesses
greater instability across AR and the Ozarks.

Additional surface-based convective development is forecast near the
triple point in north-central TX towards the ArkLaTex this
afternoon, where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very
strong deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for
multiple intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches)
may occur with the strongest supercells given the overall very
favorable environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.
Some tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even
though low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Numerous to widespread convection across the Mid-South to southern
Appalachians has generally diminished in intensity this morning. In
its wake, airmass recovery is anticipated today across the lower MS
Valley and Mid-South. A convectively reinforced front/outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorms should attempt to lift
northward some through the day, with the greater instability
forecast across the lower MS Valley where steep mid-level lapse
rates are in place. Convective evolution across these areas through
the evening remains unclear, but multiple rounds of supercells and
multicell clusters capable of producing large hail, scattered to
numerous damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes appear likely.
Less instability is forecast to the north of the ongoing convection
across the TN Valley, but some airmass recovery and severe threat
still appears possible by late afternoon/early evening.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 281653
SWODY1
SPC AC 281651

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.

First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.

Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 282002
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms will occur across parts of
the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast through this evening. Very large to giant hail (2-4+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made with this update. Most noteworthy, the CIG2 (intensity
level 2/2) hail area was expanded northward into south-central OK,
where robust splitting supercells are evolving in an environment
characterized by 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and around 50 kt of effective
shear. These storms will continue to pose a risk of very large hail
through the afternoon. In north TX, a corridor of relatively higher
tornado potential is evident along a remnant outflow boundary --
where low-level shear is locally enhanced. Refer to Tornado Watch
171 and MCD 599 for more information.

..Weinman.. 04/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026/

...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Have upgraded portions of North Texas to a Moderate Risk for what is anticipated to be a semi-focused sub-regional corridor of supercells
including very large hail potential along with some damaging
wind/tornado risk centered on mid-afternoon through
early/mid-evening.

First, a loosely organized complex of storms continues to progress east-northeastward along the Red River of southeast
Oklahoma/northeast Texas and broader parts of eastern Oklahoma at
late morning. Additional increasingly surface-based development
seems probable on this near-frontal zone and associated moist axis
and thermal gradient that extends east-northeastward to the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss. This may include supercells as well as the
possibility of an upscale-growing complex. Other initially elevated
severe storms are expected to continue and increase today from
northeast Oklahoma across the Ozarks toward parts of the
Mid-South/Mississippi Valley. Large hail is the initial risk, but a surface-based storm risk could develop pending boundary layer
warming.

Broadly speaking outside on ongoing storms, a strongly unstable
airmass exists across the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex, along and
near a slowly retreating/northward-returning warm front. This is
beneath relatively strong winds aloft, particularly in
mid/high-levels based on morning upper-air data. Additional intense surface-based convective development is forecast near the triple
point in north-central Texas towards the ArkLaTex this afternoon,
where extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and very strong
deep-layer shear (50-60+ kt) will support the potential for multiple
intense supercells. Very large to giant hail (2-4+ inches) may occur
with the strongest supercells given the overall very favorable
environment and presence of steep mid-level lapse rates. Some
tornado threat may also exist with these supercells, even though
low-level shear is not forecast to be overly strong.

Additional severe storms are expected as far east as Mississippi and
Alabama today -- see Mesoscale Discussion 594 for short-term
details. An additional secondary round of upscale-growing storms
with increasing damaging wind potential could also move into this
same region late today, or more so tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290103
SWODY1
SPC AC 290101

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...AND
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the
ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail (2+
inches), swaths of severe/damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...01z Update...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast TX into
AR, MS and vicinity. A mix of storms modes, including supercells and
bowing segments will persist into the nighttime hours. Areas of
large to very large hail (2+ inches with strongest cells), a few
tornadoes (a couple could be strong), and damaging wind gusts remain
possible over the next several hours.

The main outlook changes were to reduce severe probabilities across
areas where storm potential has diminished, particularly for the
Lever 4 of 5 (Moderate) risk area in TX where storms have moved
southeast out of that area and redevelopment to the north appears
unlikely.

..Leitman.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 290455
SWODY1
SPC AC 290453

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINAS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf coast states and southern Georgia/South Carolina Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional
strong storms are expected across the central Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the Great Lakes and Midwest today.
Within southern stream flow, a weak shortwave impulse will migrate
through westerly flow aloft from Texas to the GA/SC coast. This will
result in enhanced westerly flow across the southern U.S. and the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to extend from northern IN southwestward into central TX
this morning. This front will develop southward across TX and
southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast through the
period. The northern extent of the front will shift east across the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. This surface boundary will be a focus
for strong to severe thunderstorm development during the
afternoon/evening.

...TX to GA/SC Coast...

A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the surface front,
particularly across TX where dewpoints in the 70s are common.
Heating into the 80s and 90 of this very moist airmass will result
in a corridor of moderate to strong MLCAPE. The surface boundary
will be the main forcing mechanism for convection across TX and
storm coverage may remain isolated. Further east into the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, a shortwave impulse will provide modest forcing
for ascent in addition to the southeast sagging cold front.

Isolated supercells across central TX will pose a risk for large
hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail. Uncertainty concerning
storm coverage and capping across TX precludes an upgrade to Sight
risk at this time. Additional storms are expected to develop closer
to the Sabine Valley and Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Initial
thunderstorm clusters may congeal into one or more linear segment
and move across MS/AL/GA during the late afternoon into evening
hours. Hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
activity.

...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough emanating from the Great Lakes/Midwest
upper trough will overspread the region during the afternoon/evening
in tandem with the eastward advancing cold front. Modest boundary
layer moisture is forecast across the region, with dewpoints
generally in the 50s to near 60 F. Modest heating will result in
weak destabilization (generally 500-750 J/kg or less). Despite weak instability, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast
soundings. This should aid in at least transient organization of
stronger updrafts with a wind and hail risk. While instability and
moisture will be marginal, 0-1 SRH will approach 150 m2/s2 in
proximity to a weak surface low and a brief tornado could also
occur.

..Leitman/Moore.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291207
SWODY1
SPC AC 291205

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered damaging winds
and large hail are the main threats, with isolated very large hail
possible across portions of Texas.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A broad zone of enhanced westerly mid-level flow will persist today
over much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
Southeast. Multiple weak embedded perturbations aloft moving from
northern Mexico across the southern Plains should encourage isolated
to scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day along/near a
surface front draped from west-central TX to southern AR. A rather
moist low-level airmass remains in place along/south of this
boundary, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s.
Steep mid-level lapse rates atop this moisture are supporting up to
2000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE across TX, with somewhat lesser values into
the lower MS Valley.

Current expectations are for a gradual increase in convective
coverage and intensity this morning through the afternoon as the
weak mid-level shortwave impulses develop eastward across the warm
sector, with multiple zones of initiation possible along/near the
front. Regardless of where thunderstorms form, the moderate to very
strong instability and elongated/nearly straight hodographs at
mid/upper levels should support a threat for large hail with any
persistent supercells. This hail threat should be greater across TX
(with isolated 2+ inch diameter hailstones possible here), but
isolated severe hail may occur as far east as the central/southern
AL vicinity. A tendency for thunderstorms to cluster and pose a
greater damaging wind threat may focus across parts of the lower MS
Valley, generally along/southwest of ongoing convection occurring
this morning in east-central MS to northern/central AL. Given
increased confidence in convection initiating and being sustained, a
Slight Risk for the hail/wind threat has been introduced from parts
of TX to southern AL with this update.

...Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Filtered diurnal heating will result in
generally 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE (locally greater possible in NC).
Despite this weak instability, strong deep-layer shear should aid in
transient organization of the more robust cores that can form. An
isolated threat for hail and damaging winds remains apparent. 0-1 km
SRH around 100-150 m2/s2 in proximity to a weak surface low could
also support a brief tornado.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291551
SWODY1
SPC AC 291549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should impact a corridor from parts
of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered large to very
large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks with the
stronger storms.

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east
extent.

A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after
dark.

...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early
evening.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 292002
SWODY1
SPC AC 292000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas to the Gulf
Coast states today. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging
winds are the primary risks, with giant hail possible in parts of
south-central Texas.

...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced
Risk for portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX --
driven by a CIG2 (intensity level 2/2) hail area. The latest visible
satellite imagery indicates an agitated boundary-layer cumulus field
evolving east of Fort Stockton in Crockett County, where attempts at
isolated convective initiation are underway. Current thinking is
that continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s
dewpoints) and upslope flow enhancements will result in isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening.
Current thinking is that storms will track/develop southeastward
into a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy -- driven by steep
midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km per 12Z DRT sounding) atop the destabilizing PBL. This, combined with a long/straight hodograph
(60-70 kt of effective shear) and modest forcing for ascent will
favor intense discrete/splitting supercells. Given the modest
forcing for ascent, it is unclear how many storms will form in this
corridor, though any sustained supercells will pose a risk of very
large to giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter).

..Weinman.. 04/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026/

...Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Satellite imagery late this morning indicates high momentum
quasi-zonal flow from TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast. An
upstream perturbation over Chihuahua is forecast to move quickly
east today reaching central TX late this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage/intensity mainly along/near a surface front draped from
west-central TX to southern AR. A moisture-rich airmass featuring
lower 70s deg F surface dewpoints south of the front, coupled with a
plume of 8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates and some diurnal heating,
will contribute to 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE decreasing with east
extent.

A few initial thunderstorms clusters north of the surface front over
TX are expected to gradually intensify through early afternoon. The
moderate to very unstable airmass will combine with elongated/nearly
straight hodographs to support supercell development with the
stronger updrafts and an associated risk for large to very large
hail (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Have extended the 15-percent hail
and CIG1 hail delineation farther east into northeast TX and western
LA. For short-term forecast details, please refer to MCD #615.
Eventually upscale growth into one or more clusters is expected to
evolve across LA into the central Gulf Coast states later this
afternoon. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail will
be the primary hazards with the stronger storms.

Farther west, isolated to widely scattered intense storm development
is forecast across the Edwards Plateau this afternoon. This
activity may eventually focus closer to the Rio Grande later this
evening with a large to very large hail threat persisting well after
dark.

...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Lakes/Midwest, an
embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across
the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening in tandem with an
eastward-moving surface cold front. Only modest boundary layer
moisture is present across the region, with surface dewpoints
generally in the 50s. Forecast soundings over western PA show some
low-level hodograph curvature within a moist environment. Main
uncertainty across the upper OH Valley is the magnitude of
destabilization in this area given ongoing scattered showers and
widespread cloud cover. Nonetheless, a couple of stronger storms
could yield an isolated risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
tornado later this afternoon, especially near/southeast of a weak
surface low. Farther south, isolated wind/hail will be possible
with the stronger thunderstorms through the late afternoon/early
evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300059
SWODY1
SPC AC 300057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast states. Large hail will be the primary threat in
the southern Plains. Wind damage and large hail will be possible in
the parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast
states.

...Southern Plains...
Westerly mid-level flow is in place over much of the southern Plains
this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located over the Texas
Hill Country extending westward toward the Big Bend. To the south of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 70s F are contributing to strong instability over much of south-central and southwest Texas, where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range. To the north of
the instability max, a robust supercell is ongoing in the western
Texas Hill Country. Large to very large hail will continue to be
possible with this supercell as it moves southeastward across
south-central Texas this evening. Other supercells with potential
for large to very large hail may develop a further west and
southwest toward the Rio Grande this evening.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
Current water vapor imagery shows evidence of a subtle shortwave
trough over east Texas. At the surface, a cold front is located in
east Texas extending eastward into central Mississippi. To the south
of the front, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability. The axis of instability is
located from southeast Texas eastward into southern Mississippi.
Short-term model forecasts suggest that a severe convective cluster
may develop this evening ahead of the shortwave trough over east
Texas and move east-southeastward along the instability gradient
into western Louisiana. If this cluster does materialize, then it
will likely be associated with a potential for large hail and wind
damage. Otherwise, convection that develops near the instability
axis in the central Gulf Coast states this evening will have a
potential for isolated severe gusts...see MCD 623.

Further north into parts of northeast Mississippi and north-central
Alabama, an axis of moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This combined with steep
mid-level lapse rates will support an isolated severe threat this
evening. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats...see MCD 625.

..Broyles.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300534
SWODY1
SPC AC 300533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible this evening
into tonight across parts of southwest and south-central Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
At mid-levels, a low will move across northern Mexico this afternoon
into tonight, as a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet ejects eastward
across the southern Plains. In response, large-scale ascent will
increase over parts of southwest Texas this evening, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm coverage will
increase overnight as a cluster of convection moves eastward into
south-central Texas. These storms will be located to the north of a quasi-stationary front, and will be elevated in nature. Late evening
forecast soundings in southwest Texas have steep 700-500 mb lapse
rates (exceeding 7.5 C/km), with effective shear in the 50 to 60
knot range. This environment will likely support an isolated large
hail threat, mainly if a supercell can develop.

..Broyles/Moore.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301248
SWODY1
SPC AC 301246

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.

...Texas...
Strong westerly mid-flow will be maintained across the southern
Plains into the Southeast today, as a mid/upper-level low currently
off the coast of Baja California quickly moves eastward through the
period. A surface front is currently stalled across parts of south
TX, and most of the thunderstorms forecast to develop across TX
through tonight are expected to remain elevated. Ascent preceding
the shortwave trough should eventually encourage convection to
develop near the TX Big Bend late this evening, and spread eastward
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally damaging winds may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated. Overall
confidence in coverage of severe convection remains too low to
include greater severe hail probabilities and a Slight Risk with
this update.

...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.

...Coastal South Carolina...
Thunderstorms capable of producing occasional strong/gusty winds
should move offshore within the next hour or two. The overall severe
wind threat appears too limited to include 5% probabilities.

..Gleason/Jewell.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301558
SWODY1
SPC AC 301557

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.

...Texas...
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late
this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and
southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level
flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface
analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX
eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud
cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite
a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across
northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A
couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD
#627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms
developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional
activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.

...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301951
SWODY1
SPC AC 301950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be
possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and
this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only slight
changes made to ongoing probabilities to account for the latest
guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 04/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026/

...Texas...
A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late
this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and
southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level
flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface
analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX
eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud
cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite
a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across
northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A
couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early
afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD
#627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the
shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms
developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional
activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east
towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient
MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat
for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop.
Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells
encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX
late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated.

...Coastal/Southern Louisiana...
A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across
southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its
north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front
across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move
across the front later today could pose some risk for locally
damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate
instability and strong deep-layer shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010102
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible this evening into tonight across parts of southwest Texas.

...Southwest and South-central Texas...
A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over
far northeastern Mexico. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is
located across south Texas, with a post-frontal airmass in place
over much of southwest and south-central Texas. A strong
thunderstorm is ongoing to the east of the Sierra Madre Oriental
mountains in northern Mexico. This storm will move eastward toward
the Rio Grande and will likely cross the river later this evening.
Mid evening RAP forecast soundings in the Laredo, Texas vicinity
have effective shear around 65 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 7 C/km. This will support a large hail threat. On the forecast
sounding, the temperature is nearly isothermal in the lowest 1000
meters, with CAPE mainly concentrated above 700 mb suggesting that
any supercell will likely be elevated. The large hail threat could
continue into the late evening and early overnight period, but the
area should be confined to a small area in southwest and
south-central Texas.

..Broyles.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010550
SWODY1
SPC AC 010548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...South-central and Southeast Texas...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across northern
Mexico today, as a jet streak ahead of the trough translates
eastward into the western Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary front will remain over south Texas extending
eastward to the middle Texas Coast. Large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development across the
post-frontal airmass in the southern Texas Hill Country. Storms will
develop and move eastward across the middle and upper Texas Coastal
Plain during the morning and afternoon. Moderate instability is
expected to be in place near the front today, aided by surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. In addition, the mid-level jet
will create strong deep-layer shear favorable for a few rotating
storms capable of large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. This
potential will be greatest along the instability gradient across the
middle Texas Coast to the north of Corpus Christi. The severe threat
is expected to gradually end from west to east during the late
afternoon as the stronger instability shifts offshore into the Gulf.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the western Gulf
Coast states this evening, as the entrance region of a mid-level jet overspreads the region. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent will
support scattered thunderstorm development from this afternoon into
tonight. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60 F in the immediate coastal
areas of southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi and far
southern Alabama will contribute to sufficient instability for
isolated severe storms. A few of the stronger storms could produce
strong wind gusts and hail. The severe threat could increase late
this evening into the overnight, especially if a convective cold
pool can organize in the coastal areas. If this conditional scenario materializes, then wind damage would become the primary threat.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011233
SWODY1
SPC AC 011231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs,
including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and
another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone
centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent
surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas
northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines
Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across
northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico
shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas
Coast.

Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain
largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated
instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow.
Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the
shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is
expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could
result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater
overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding
showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall
thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks
with the strongest storms.

A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough
over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as
the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off
the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern
Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection
and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms
may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also
track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the
near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida
Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop,
enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011626
SWODY1
SPC AC 011624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011951
SWODY1
SPC AC 011949

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of southeast Texas, and this evening
into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Some trimming
was done to thunder/severe probabilities in western into southern
Texas, with 5 percent hail probabilities added in southern LA, to
account for the latest storm trends and near-term guidance
consensus.

..Squitieri.. 05/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026/

...Synopsis...
Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua. This upper
feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into
increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale
eastern U.S. trough. As a weak cyclone develops east along a
west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of
the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with
warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the
FL Panhandle tonight.

Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically
developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning
immediately downstream of the upper disturbance. Localized
hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late
afternoon. A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and
weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado
probabilities over TX this outlook update. See MCD #632 regarding
short-term details.

Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently
depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,
specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near
shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL
Panhandle. North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be
maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later
this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with
increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields. Near and
immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind
probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based
inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020024
SWODY1
SPC AC 020023

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this
evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm activity will continue across portions of the central
Gulf Coast this evening. While the more favorably unstable air mass
remains mostly offshore, occasional strong cells/clusters may track
inland with potential for damaging winds as large scale ascent
increasing through the evening/overnight period. Closer to the front
offshore, a few transient supercells and a tornado may be possible.
Overall, the threat inland remains isolated and a Marginal risk was
maintained this evening to account for this potential.

..Thornton.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020528
SWODY1
SPC AC 020527

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will bring enhanced west-southwesterly flow
aloft across the southeast into the Gulf Coast Saturday. A cold
front extending across the northern Florida Peninsula into the Gulf
will shift south and east through the afternoon, as a focus of
severe thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm activity is expected
at the beginning of the period, some of which perhaps may be strong.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing at the start of the
period early Saturday morning across the Gulf into the Florida
Panhandle and southern Georgia. A few stronger transient supercells
will be possible, mainly offshore south of the Florida coast where
better instability will overlap increasing upper-level flow.

Thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage inland and across
southern Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and northern
Florida Peninsula through the morning into the afternoon. Moderately
unstable and strongly sheared profiles across the region will
support potential for damaging winds and large hail, especially with
embedded supercells. Given storm motions parallel to the southwest
to northeast oriented cold front, supercells will likely struggle to
remain discrete. As the low-level jet becomes displaced to the north
by late morning into the afternoon, mode may becoming increasingly
more clustered/linear. This may reduce the hail potential through
time.

Before the low-level jet shifts northward, risk for a tornado will
be possible across the northern peninsula near the front. There is a
narrow zone in north Florida where marginally stronger low-level
shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align
mid/late morning for a higher tornado risk. Overall, confidence is
low in favorable overlap, with potential largely occurring outside
of peak daytime heating and with the low-level jet beginning to
shift northward. As mentioned, there is also concern about storm
motions and lack of more discrete supercells. This leads to too much uncertainty in introducing higher tornado probabilities at this
time.

A Slight Risk was maintained across southern Georgia into the
eastern Florida Panhandle and northern/central Florida for the main
threats of damaging wind and large hail.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021217
SWODY1
SPC AC 021216

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida this morning into the early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida into far southeast Georgia...
Regional radar imagery shows a broad area of precipitation extending
from the northeast Gulf northeastward through the Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are ongoing within the southern portion of this
precipitation shield, from the northeast Gulf into central and
eastern FL Panhandle. This region is just downstream of a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and in the vicinity of an associated
surface low. Stronger ascent and modest buoyancy is favoring deeper
updrafts across this region compared to areas farther north.

Updrafts in this area have been fairly transient overnight and for
the first few hours this morning, likely resulting from a
combination of modest buoyancy, boundary-parallel deep-layer shear,
and elevated storm structures. Some improvement in storm
organization appears possible over the next few hours as the
low-level flow strengthens and convergence near the surface low
augments large-scale ascent. This better storm organization should
result in stronger updrafts and longer overall updraft persistence,
with an attendant increase in the risk for damaging gusts.
Additionally, there is enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two if surface-based storms can be realized.
Surface-based storms appear most probable over the northwest FL
vicinity and a small 5% tornado probability was delineated to
highlight this potential.

This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #0635.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021631
SWODY1
SPC AC 021629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern and central
Florida Peninsula through early evening.

...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.

...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021955
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible across the northern and
central Florida Peninsula through early evening.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to the outlook was to trim thunder and severe
probabilities where storms have contributed to boundary layer
stabilization, particularly over the central FL Peninsula. Category
1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained ahead of a broken
band of storms. Here, an adequate overlap of buoyancy and deep-layer
shear remains to support multicells and transient supercells capable
of producing an instance or two of hail, gusty winds, or a brief
tornado.

..Squitieri.. 05/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026/

...Northern/Central Florida...
At midday, a line of gradually intensifying storms extends northeast-southwestward across the northern Florida Peninsula to the
nearby Gulf, with additional offshore development occurring about as
far south as the Tampa Bay vicinity. This line will continue to move
inland and further intensify as the boundary layer warms inland in
conjunction with near-70F surface dewpoints. Some additional
more-discrete development may occur ahead of the line, potentially
focusing along the east coast. Damaging winds are the most probable
severe hazard as low/mid-level winds further strengthen, albeit with
a tendency for low-level veering over time. Even so, a tornado or
two could occur aside from damaging winds.

...Western Oregon/northern California...
Influenced by upper-jet exit region and the prominent trough off the
coast of Oregon/California, a few stronger storms may develop across
the region late this afternoon through early evening. While gusty
winds and/or small hail could occur, the potential for organized
severe storms should remain low given the modest instability and
weak deep-layer shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030026
SWODY1
SPC AC 030025

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected through the rest of the period.

...Synopsis...
The Marginal Risk across the Florida Peninsula has been removed with
this outlook. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across the
region but are expected to remain sub-severe with the loss of
daytime heating and thunderstorm activity becoming mainly
post-frontal.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening across
portions of the Southwest into Great Basin and across the Northern
Rockies. With weakly sheared profiles and marginal instability, no
severe storms are forecast.

..Thornton.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030538
SWODY1
SPC AC 030536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow
within the broader eastern US trough will overspread the Missouri
Valley through this evening. A weak cold front will extend across
portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. This
boundary will be the focus for potential isolated thunderstorm
development as the short-wave moves in across the region by the
evening.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture quality continues to be a question within the Marginal Risk
area as previously stated in prior outlooks. Surface observations
show 50s dew points have made it as far north as the Red River in
southern Oklahoma as of late Saturday evening. There remains some
question just how far north (or deep) this moisture will be by late
afternoon across Missouri/Illinois. Most 00z guidance suggests that
50 F dew points will steadily spread into Missouri through the day
today. However, afternoon sounding profiles suggest this moisture to
be thin and potentially subject to mixing. Through the afternoon,
weak convergence along the front and a mid-level capping inversion
will likely prohibit convective development. As the short-wave
ascent arrives in the evening, 00z HREF guidance suggest that at
least isolated thunderstorms may develop (as seen in ensemble paint
balls >40z dBZ and in calibrated thunder chances around 40-50%).
Temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb).
Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Given steepening
lapse rate profiles and cold temperatures aloft, potential for a few
instances of severe hail and strong to severe winds will be
possible.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031244
SWODY1
SPC AC 031242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY....

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois today.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows broadly cyclonic flow across
much of the CONUS. The only exceptions are along the West Coast,
which is being influenced by an upper low just off the CA coast, and
the Southwest States, where minor shortwave ridging exists. A
low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southward/southeastward within this broadly cyclonic flow through
the Upper Midwest and northern Plains, with continued southeastward
progression expected throughout the period.

Recent surface analysis reveals a low over east-central MN, with a
cold front extending southwestward into south-central NE before
arcing back westward into far northeast CO and northwestward into
central WY. This surface low, which is associated with the Upper
Midwest shortwave trough, is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, while gradually weakening. As it does, the cold
front is expected to progress southeastward/southward, although the
western portion of the front will gradually slow and eventually
become stationary from southwest KS into northern MO this evening.
Ascent along and atop this frontal zone will be the focus for
potential isolated severe thunderstorm development this evening.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Some modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated across the
southern and central Plains today ahead of the southward progressing
cold front. However, any notable low-level moisture (i.e. 60+ deg F
dewpoints) will remain well south over south TX. This limited
low-level moisture coupled with strong heating and mixing, should
keep the airmass across the region capped through the afternoon and
into the early evening. Thereafter, strengthening warm-air advection
across the stalled front will combine with steep mid-level lapse
rates to support moderate buoyancy and limited convective inhibition
for parcels rooted around 700 to 800 mb. Cloud-bearing layer shear
is sufficient for organization of any deeper, more sustained
updrafts, and a few storms capable of isolated hail and/or damaging
gusts are possible.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central CA coast. Increasing mid-level moisture and cold
mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid moderate
easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small hail and
gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during the late afternoon/early evening. Even so, overall severe coverage is still
expected to be less than 5%.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031631
SWODY1
SPC AC 031629

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.

...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.

...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.

..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031924
SWODY1
SPC AC 031922

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
mainly this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into
south-central Illinois.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 05/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026/

...Northern/eastern Missouri into south-central Illinois...
Airmass modification and modest-caliber moist advection will occur north-northeastward into the region along and south of a
decelerating southeastward-moving front. The limited low-level
moisture, coupled with strong heating and mixing, should keep the
airmass across the region capped through the afternoon. However,
toward/after sunset, sufficient moistening atop the decoupling
boundary layer should support increasing thunderstorm development
this evening. Convection will tend to be rooted around 750-850 mb,
and while elevated buoyancy will not be robust, the steep lapse
rates could yield some severe hail (and possibly gusty winds) in the
presence of 40+ kt shear through the cloud-bearing layer.

...Far South Florida...
While a couple of strong storms could occur through the afternoon,
cloud cover and an increasingly prevalent post-frontal regime, along
with weak lapse rates in the cloud-bearing layer, should tend to
limit storm intensity inland.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Thunderstorms are expected along the northern periphery of the upper
low off the central California coast. Increasing mid-level moisture
and cold mid-level temperatures will support modest buoyancy amid
moderate easterly flow aloft, supporting the potential for small
hail and gusty winds with these westward progressing storms during
the late afternoon and early evening. However, organized severe
storm potential is expected to remain low.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040042
SWODY1
SPC AC 040040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and gusty winds are possible
this evening across northern/eastern Missouri into south-central
Illinois.

...Synopsis...
Current surface observations and mesoanalysis show modest air mass
modification into central Missouri, where dew points are in the mid
to upper 40s near the I-70 corridor. Visible satellite has shown
some cumulus development over the last hour. A weak cold front
continues to slowly sag southward. Guidance suggests that isolated
thunderstorm development will be possible near this boundary this
evening over the next couple of hours with the increasing low-level
jet. These are expected to be elevated, rooted largely in the
850-700 mb layer, where some marginal instability with cooling
temperatures aloft and steep lapse rates may support a few instances
of hail and strong to severe wind.

Low top convection within a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates across South Dakota and Nebraska continues to track eastward,
with a history of producing gusts 50-60 mph. These have been
generally weakening and moving into drier air. Occasional stronger
gusts may continue given the steep lapse rate environment.

..Thornton.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040600
SWODY1
SPC AC 040558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. A conditional threat for severe storms
with large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Strengthening mid-level flow will move out of Canada today,
deepening the Eastern US trough, with a surface low developing
across Ontario and a cold front shifting south across the northern
Plains into the central Plains and Midwest. Across the west, flow
will strengthen in within a cutoff low just off the shore of
California before overspreading portions of the Southwest into the
Southern Plains. A surface low is expected to develop across Kansas,
with a dryline extending south into Oklahoma/north Texas. Areas of
strong to severe storms will be possible from the Midwest into
portions of eastern Kansas and south into Oklahoma/northern Texas.

...Eastern Kansas into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
Thunderstorm development will likely be delayed until the late afternoon/evening across eastern Kansas into Missouri owing to
strong MLCIN and generally weak forcing. Daytime heating and dew
points in the mid 50s to 60s should yield moderate MLCAPE across a
region from eastern Kansas northward into Missouri and western
Illinois. As the low-level jet increases into the evening with the
cold front shifting south, scattered thunderstorm development is
expected. Initially, strongly sheared profiles and steep lapse rates
will support supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind,
primarily across eastern Kansas. Through time as additional storms
develop and cluster along the front, the risk for damaging wind may
increase. A few CAM members suggest a few clusters/bowing segments
may move across northern Missouri and west-central Illinois, though
there is disagreement in location/timing. A corridor of higher wind probabilities and upgrade to Slight may be warranted as details
become clearer.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
Scattered thunderstorm development will continue further north into
the Great Lakes region along the cold front. Moisture becomes more
limited with northern extent which may limit the severe threat.
However, strong flow aloft and steep lapse rates may still support
downward mixing and swaths of strong to severe wind.

...South-central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A more conditional threat for storms will exist along the dryline
across southern Kansas into central Oklahoma and northern Texas.
Strong daytime heating is expected across this region along and
behind the dryline. Forecast sounding comparison indicates the
dryline circulation will be strong and deep through the afternoon.
Mid-level capping will likely inhibit convection until stronger flow
aloft overspreads the region by the late afternoon/evening. The
low-level jet will also strengthen at this time, with MLCIN eroding.
It is possible that an isolated supercell or two could develop and
produce large to very large hail (some 2+ inches). The best signal
for this is near the Red River in southern Oklahoma/northern Texas.
However, a few members do have development further north across
northern Oklahoma and into southeastern Kansas.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041254
SWODY1
SPC AC 041252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible across portions of the Midwest this afternoon into
tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with large to very
large hail extends into portions of the central/southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a large upper low off the
central CA coast, with an extensive fetch of southwesterly flow
aloft from the base of this low through northern Mexico and the
Southwest States into the southern High Plains. A deep cyclone
exists over central Canada as well. Between these two primary
features, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is currently moving
southeastward across NE.

Several shortwave troughs are forecast to rotate around the Canadian
cyclone, contributing to some deepening and eastward progression. An
associated surface low, currently over northwestern Ontario, will
move eastward as well. The deepening of the upper trough across the
northern Plains and progression of the surface low will force a cold
front southward/southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Middle MO
Valley by this evening, and through the central Plains, and Lower MO
and Mid MS Valleys by early tomorrow. Increasing low-level moisture
is anticipated ahead of this cold front, supporting the potential
for thunderstorms as this front interacts with this moisture and
associated buoyancy.

...Eastern KS into Mid MS Valley and Lower MI...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon, both
along the front, which should extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA, and within the warm-air advection regime ahead
of the front. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large hail is the primary
risk.

Any thunderstorms that develop within the warm-air advection regime
ahead of the front during the afternoon and early evening should
interact with greater buoyancy (particularly from northeast IL,
northern IL and southern Lower MI where less boundary-layer mixing
could result in slightly higher dewpoints) and moderate vertical
shear. A few stronger, more organized storms are possible in this
area, although weaker upper flow could limit discreteness and result
in a trend towards a more clustered storm mode.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A sharp dryline is expected to develop from central KS
south-southwestward into northwest TX. Given the veering surface
winds, convergence along the dryline will likely be modest
throughout much of the afternoon. However, some backing is possible
during the evening as a surface low moves eastward across southwest
KS towards northwest OK. Strong diurnal heating will likely erode
most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep lapse
rates contribute to moderate buoyancy. These factors could be enough
to force isolated initiation on the dryline from central KS into
northwest TX. Upper-level flow will be strengthening across the
region throughout the period, and any storms that do form will have
ample deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large to very large
hail would be the primary risk early in the convective cycle, with
dry mid-levels also supporting strong downdrafts as storms begin to
weaken and collapse.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.

...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041934
SWODY1
SPC AC 041933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Midwest this
afternoon into tonight. A conditional threat for severe storms with
large to very large hail extends into portions of the
central/southern Plains.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track. Only minor changes
were made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest trends in observations and high resolution model guidance.

..Squitieri.. 05/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026/

...IL into the southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level vorticity maximum over the lower MO Valley is forecast
to move east across IL through the late afternoon and into IN-OH
tonight. An associated speed maximum at 700 mb will intensify and
overspread IL (40-50 kt) east into the southern Great Lakes while a
pronounced strengthening of 850-mb flow (50 kt) occurs during the
21-03z period. Cold mid-level temperatures (-18 deg C at 500 mb)
will act to offset initially meager moisture. Model guidance varies considerably regarding moisture quality with ample spread amongst
different model cores/PBL schemes. However, it seems a narrow
corridor of lower to mid 50s surface dewpoints will extend
east-northeast from the lower MO Valley into the southern Great
Lakes by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show weak to
moderate buoyancy (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE). Morning model guidance
shows widely scattered to scattered storms developing within the
warm conveyor during peak heating as convective inhibition erodes.
Have expanded the Slight Risk farther east into this region to
account for a hail/wind risk with the stronger storms. Uncertainty
remains regarding quality of boundary-layer moisture across the
northern third of IN into northwest OH where hodographs become
enlarged later this afternoon into the early evening. Will
re-evaluate the tornado risk for the 20 UTC outlook if in fact
moisture quality seems sufficient for a focused, short-duration
tornado risk across the aforementioned corridor.

...Eastern KS into the Mid MS Valley...
Thunderstorm development is anticipated during the afternoon along a
cold forecast to extend through southern WI and
eastern/southern IA. Thunderstorms along the front will initially be
displaced north of the better shear and buoyancy, so somewhat
transient updraft structures and/or frontal undercutting will likely
limit storm severity. Even so, high cloud bases and a deeply mixed
boundary layer could result in a few strong gusts. Later in the
evening, more storm development appears likely on the front as it
moves into eastern KS and northern/central MO. Here, stronger shear
and buoyancy should support more robust updrafts and a relatively
higher probability for severe storms. Large to very large hail is
the primary risk.

...Central Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
A dryline will extend from central KS south-southwestward into
northwest TX by mid afternoon as a surface low evolves near the TX Panhandle/OK/KS border region. Strong diurnal heating will likely
erode most convective inhibition by the early evening, while steep
lapse rates contribute to moderate buoyancy along the dryline.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on the dryline from central KS
into northwest TX during the 22-02 UTC period. Veering and
strengthening flow with height beneath 100-kt westerly 200-mb flow
will support supercells. Isolated large to very large hail will be
the primary risk with the stronger storms, although severe gusts are
also possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050054
SWODY1
SPC AC 050052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible from eastern Kansas into the
portions of the Ohio Valley this evening into tonight. A
conditional threat for severe storms with large to very large hail
extends into portions of southern Plains through the remainder of
the evening.

...Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys....

Widely scattered, strong to severe storms are ongoing this evening
along and ahead of a progressive cold front from southern lower MI
into northern IL and far southeast IA with visible satellite
indicating additional storm attempts into portions of northern MO. A
separate area of thunderstorms is ongoing within the open warm
sector east of St. Louis where hail up two inches in diameter has
been reported. In the absence of more substantial boundary-layer
moisture content, 00z observed soundings revealed the presence of
steep low/mid-level lapse rates are largely contributing to MLCAPE
of around 1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, the accompanying kinematic
environment features a vertically veering wind profile with around
40 kt of effective bulk shear magnitudes and modestly strong
low-level shear (effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2).

Current thinking is that ongoing storms will remain capable of
isolated occurrences of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts
for the next few hours as increasing moisture content along a
nocturnal low-level jet offsets cooling in the boundary layer. The
threat should tend to diminish overnight as the boundary layer
gradually stabilizes.

For additional information on near-term details, see MCDs 640 and
641.


...Eastern Kansas into western Missouri...

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have persisted this
evening across portions of western into central KS, aided by a weak
mid-level impulse moving through the central High Plains. A number
of high-resolution models suggest that activity will intensify later
this evening into tonight as it drifts east of the I-35 corridor and
encounters an increasingly unstable air mass in place across eastern
KS into western MO. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance
moisture transport into the growing complex of storms with large
hail being the primary hazard initially. With time, the models
suggest upscale growth into one or more forward-propagating clusters
with an increased risk for damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050537
SWODY1
SPC AC 050536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated, strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous, mid-level low over Ontario this evening is forecast to
evolve into an open wave while translating east into Quebec on
Tuesday. An accompanying belt of strong, mid/upper-level winds will
overspread the lower Great Lakes and northern New England in tandem
with modest height falls related to a vorticity maximum pivoting
through the base of the parent system. Elsewhere, a mid-level low
currently along the CA coast is expected to weaken while shifting
through the lower-CO Valley to the vicinity of the Four Corners
region. A belt of 50-70 kt winds at 500 mb are forecast downstream
from that feature, extending from the southern Plains into the Mid
South on Tuesday afternoon into evening.

In the low levels, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast
Quebec through the OH and mid-MS Valleys to low pressure over OK
Tuesday morning. The northern extension of the boundary will move
into the lower Great Lakes and northern New England during the peak
of the diurnal heating cycle. The segment of the front across the
Ozarks and Ozark Plateau may be temporarily displaced to the south
Tuesday morning due to overnight thunderstorm activity. However by
afternoon, the front is expected to refocus in the vicinity of the
MO-AR border, ahead of a weakening surface low moving through
eastern OK into western AR. The western extension of the cold front
trailing the surface low is expected to advance southeast through
the Red River Valley.

...Northeast Texas into the southern Missouri and western
Tennessee...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a complex of thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period across portions of MO
into northern AR. That activity is expected to shift east of the
area by late morning or early afternoon, with some lingering shower
and thunderstorm development occurring to the north of the front in
central MO. In the wake of the early-day convection, HREF cloud
forecasts indicate the potential for considerable high-level clouds
and pockets of thicker low-cloudiness, which could limit the
potential for stronger diabatic warming within the pre-frontal air
mass. Nonetheless, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s in conjunction with an elevated-mixed layer (EML) plume will
support a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of
1000-2000 J/kg.

Neutral to slight height rises are forecast in the mid levels during
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle with model forecast soundings
indicating considerable capping at the base of the EML. As such,
eventual storm coverage remains uncertain. The 00z high-resolution
models suggest that isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
become increasingly likely by late afternoon or early evening along
the frontal segment along the MO-AR border, immediately
east/northeast of the surface low. Additional, isolated storm
development also appears possible from the vicinity of the surface
low southwest along the cold front into northeast TX, mainly during
the evening hours.

The favorable overlap of moderate instability and strong deep-layer
shear will favor supercell storm modes, especially given the
anticipated weak forcing for ascent. Large hail will be the
predominant severe-weather hazard initially. A few tornadoes appear
possible across portions of northern AR, potentially into western TN
from late afternoon through the evening association with any
sustained supercells. Here, the presence of a 35-40 kt low-level jet
will yield effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 amidst a moist/low-LCL
environment. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at
which point damaging winds would become a growing concern.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...

Moisture advection occurring along a southwesterly low-level jet
will allow dewpoints to rise into the 50s within the pre-frontal
warm sector on Tuesday. And while mid-level lapse rates are not
expected to be particularly steep, the moisture increase combined
with daytime heating and the resultant steepening of low-level lapse
rates will result in MLCAPE of 500 to perhaps 1000 J/kg. Increasing
height falls aloft and convergence/lift along the cold front are
expected to support surface-based storm development by early
afternoon within the destabilizing air mass across portions of
upstate NY. The storms will quickly overspread northern portions of
VT, NH, and ME during the afternoon into early evening.

The 00z high-resolution models indicate the potential for transient
supercell and bowing structures, which appears reasonable given the
presence of a relatively strong, deep-layer wind field. In that
scenario, isolated occurrences of damaging winds and perhaps some
marginally severe hail appear possible. The tornado threat will be
conditional on sufficient instability to support more sustained
supercell structures. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained;
however, if it becomes apparent that stronger instability will
develop than is currently anticipated, an upgraded to level 2/Slight
Risk may become necessary.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051253
SWODY1
SPC AC 051252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the
main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be
capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More
isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms
moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this
cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and
FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over
western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low
through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends
southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These
boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could
act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the
region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection
this afternoon.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in
the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm
sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest
and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may
prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists.
These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast,
particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these
factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm
mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent
as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as
well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher
storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a
corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities.

That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive
of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow
resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature
should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large
hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle.
Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into
western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong
tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may
eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds
would become the primary severe risk.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI,
along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward
through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward
along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also
progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent
cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level
moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and
Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely
reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with
afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy,
despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and
ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the
destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as
shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient
updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity
modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well.
Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although
a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051632
SWODY1
SPC AC 051631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks.

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.

Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

..Smith/Squitieri.. 05/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051948
SWODY1
SPC AC 051946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through
this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western
Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across
northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow
warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer
remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent
18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb
compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts
some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR;
however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res
WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in
thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR
and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later
tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and
embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will
likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy
and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5%
wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 05/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026/

...Northeast TX into the Mid-South...
Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a
band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western
TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms
extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it
intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped
southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks.

Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud
cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH
Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid
to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX
into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels
via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion
around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob.

Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures
warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther
northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger
heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg
from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of
3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence
along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are
anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the
erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are
breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms
developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is
forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the
evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by
relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow
will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in
diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and
near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs
this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms
moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger
storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting
through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS
River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete
supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is
expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is
maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a
lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before
storms weaken late.

...Lower Great Lakes into northern New England...
A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower
Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front,
with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This
low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s
will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates.
Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the
eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass
from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME.

Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively
deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized
storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the
boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft
strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest.
Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly
linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a
low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of
strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060049
SWODY1
SPC AC 060048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible this evening from north
Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Discussion...
Two areas of thunderstorm development are noted this evening: one
near the cold front extending across northwestern Arkansas and
another southward into north Texas near the cold front interface
with the dryline in central Texas. These two areas will be the
targets of interest for severe storm development this evening.

...Arkansas...
A cluster of elevated cells have developed in the vicinity of the
cold front in northwestern Arkansas. These have been slow to mature,
likely owning to remaining surface inhibition observed from NSSL
LIFT soundings from central Arkansas. This is also observed in
surface objective analysis, with moderate to strong CAPE in place
across much of central/southern Arkansas. Hi-res guidance suggests
that additional development will be likely through the evening. The
shear profiles across the region are supportive of supercells, given
strong deep layer shear at 65+ kts. If these cells can become
surface based through time, the tornado risk will increase. Surface
objective analysis indicates STP around 3-4 across southwestern
Arkansas into central Arkansas. Through time, additional development
along the front will become more linear and support an increase in
damaging wind potential.

...North-Central and Northeastern Texas/Southwestern Texas...
Thunderstorms have developed across the north side of the Dallas
metro this evening near the interface of the dryline with surface
boundaries and the cold front. Conditionally, if supercells develop
across this region potential for large hail will be possible.

Guidance also suggests convective development will be possible near
the Mexico border in far southwestern Texas. A conditional risk for
large to very large hail will extend into this region as well this
evening.

..Thornton.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060551
SWODY1
SPC AC 060549

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more widespread damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid to upper-level jet will move across the mid Mississippi
Valley into Tennessee and northward into the Ohio Valley through the
period. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward from the
southern Plains into the Gulf Coast states and north into the
Mid-Atlantic region. Thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing
along this boundary at the start of the period this morning across
portions of Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and Tennessee. By the
afternoon, additional development of severe storms is likely across
portions of Louisiana into central Mississippi and central Alabama
along and ahead of the cold front. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible before trending to a damaging wind threat as storms
grow upscale through the evening.

...Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama...
Extensive mid-level cloud cover is expected to persist this morning
across much of the Mississippi River Valley into portions of
northern Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi. Within the gradient of
broken mid-level cloud cover across portions of south-central and
southern Mississippi into central Alabama, filtered heating and
strong warm air advection may promote a more favorable corridor of
moderate MLCAPE values. Almost all hi-res guidance hints at the
possibility of storms developing within the open warm sector by the
afternoon, the primary mode being supercelluar. Within this
corridor, a southwesterly low-level jet around 40-50 kts will also
increase into the evening enlarging low-level hodographs and
increasing potential for tornadoes. Should supercells be able to
form and sustain within this environment, they would pose a risk for
all hazards including strong tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. The Enhanced Risk was shifted southward to nudge into the
region where there is better confidence that filtered heating will
occur. Higher probabilities were considered, but details on morning
cloud cover and air mass recovery into the afternoon lead to low
confidence in introducing higher probabilities.

As the front sags southward, storms will begin to cluster with
tendency to grow upscale and an increasing damaging wind threat
continuing downstream into portions of southern Alabama and
central/southern Georgia.

...Texas...
Thunderstorm development is possible further south along the front
and dryline into portions of eastern, central, and southwestern
Texas. Isolated supercells will be possible with potential for a few
instances of severe hail and damaging wind. Overall, coverage is
expected to remain more limited given better forcing for ascent will
be located to the east.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061243
SWODY1
SPC AC 061242

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of phased shortwave
troughs, one in the northern stream moving southward into UT/CO and
the other in southern stream off the southern CA/northern Baja
coast. Strong, confluent flow aloft exists downstream of these
shortwaves, with an extensive fetch of moderate to strong
southwesterly flow extending from northern Mexico into the
Northeast. A general deepening of the upper troughing is anticipated
throughout the day as the northern-stream shortwave continues
southeastward while the southern-stream shortwave moves gradually
eastward. This evolution will result in strengthening mid to upper
level flow from the southern Plain into New England, particularly
from the Lower MO Valley through the OH Valley where 500 mb flow
could exceed 100 kt. This evolution will also push a cold front,
which currently extends from the TX Hill Country into western PA,
farther south.

There will be some displacement between the strongest flow aloft and
the more warm and moist conditions south of the front. However,
even with this displacement, moderate to strong upper/mid flow is
still expected across much of the southern Plains and Southeast.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along and ahead of
this cold front from the TX Hill Country through the Southeast and
into the Carolinas. Highest coverage of severe thunderstorms will be
from central MS into central AL, where supercells capable of all
hazards will be possible.

...East TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
Recent surface analysis placed the cold front from near JCT in the
TX Hill Country northeastward through the Arklatex, northern MS, and
western TN. A weak low exists along this boundary over the western
AR/LA vicinity. 70s dewpoints extend from south TX across LA into
far western MS and southern AR, with upper 60s dewpoints through
much of MS. Low-level moisture advection is expected to continue
throughout the day, with mid 70s dewpoints possible from central LA
into central MS by the afternoon. This increasing moisture amid
filtered daytime heating will result in strong buoyancy ahead of the
front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE), despite poor mid-level lapse
rates. Also, as mentioned in the synopsis, strong deep-layer shear
will be in place, resulting in an overall airmass that supports
supercells.

However, whether discrete supercells can develop and mature remains
uncertain. A combination of neutral height tendencies, widespread
cloud cover, and warm-air advection initiated storms will likely
lead to complex convective evolution and related storm interactions.
Majority of the convection-allowing guidance develops
thunderstorms within the warm sector from northern LA into central
MS by 18Z. Thunderstorm development is possible along the front from
northern AL into northern LA around this time as well. Large to very
large hail will be the primary risk with these storms, although
there is also a risk for tornadoes if a storm can remain discrete.
The tornado risk is expected to increase from the late afternoon
through the evening from central MS into central AL as low-level
hodographs lengthen in response to strengthening low-level flow.
Environmental conditions support the potential for a strong tornado
during this timeframe. Whether or not storms can realize this
increasing low-level shear will largely be a function of storm mode.
Storms should eventually begin to cluster and to grow upscale, with
an increasing damaging wind threat continuing downstream into
portions of southern Alabama and central/southern Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards. Several rounds of elevated storms are possible
as well, with hail as the primary risk with these storms.

...TX Hill Country into southeast TX...
A pair of supercells capable of large hail are currently ongoing
across southwest TX (Crockett and Sutton Counties). Environmental
conditions are favorable for storm maintenance for at least an hour
or two before northward displacement from the better buoyancy leads
to weakening. Additional isolated development is possible farther
east into central and southeast TX during the afternoon and evening.
Any storms that mature would likely be supercellular and capable of
producing severe hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061627
SWODY1
SPC AC 061625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND INTO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from central Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central Mississippi and Alabama
before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk into the late evening/overnight.

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

..Smith/Thompson.. 05/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Supercells capable of all hazards
will be possible across portions of central/southern Mississippi and
central Alabama before a shift to a more of a damaging wind risk
into the late evening/overnight.

...20z Update...
The primary forecast update was a reduction in severe probabilities
across portions of central/eastern TX and across the Mid-South in
the wake of the surface cold front. Latest regional radar mosaic
shows the early stages of deepening convection across far eastern TX
into central LA as low-level moisture continues to deepen (per 18z
RAOBs). This activity is expected to gradually intensify through
late afternoon amid filtered diurnal heating that should continue to
erode lingering MLCIN. Strong deep-layer wind shear (sampled in
regional VWPs and 18 UTC RAOBs) should maintain the severe threat
through the evening hours. Confidence severe thunderstorms remains
highest across southern MS where convection originating in central
LA will likely track and intensify within a favorable environment
(where STP values will increase to 2-3 by late afternoon) prior to
undercutting by the cold front later this evening.

..Moore.. 05/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026/

...TX/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
A corridor of strong mid to high-level west-southwesterly flow
extends from TX into the central and southern Appalachians to the
southeast of a larger-scale positively tilted trough with embedded
shortwaves. Morning surface mesoanalysis depicted a cold front
slowly moving southward across south-central TX through northern MS
and into the southern Appalachians. South of the boundary, a
quasi-zonal flow regime with little mid-level height change is
expected through tonight. A moist airmass maintained by southerly
flow will yield surface dewpoints ranging from the mid-upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s deg F south of the front. Despite extensive cloud
cover owing to the moist boundary layer (reference the 16 g/kg
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios from the 12 UTC Lake Charles and
Slidell, LA raobs), heating and persistent weak low-level warm
advection will combine to erode convective inhibition and yield
scattered storms developing later this afternoon. Moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and seasonably rich moisture/PW will support
strong buoyancy ahead of the front (i.e. 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over
LA/MS. Gradual intensification of storms in the moist environment
will likely result in several strong supercells eventually
developing late this afternoon through the evening. Large to very
large hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes will be possible with the
stronger storms. The tornado risk is forecast to peak late this
afternoon through the evening as southwesterly 850-mb flow
strengthens from 25 kt to 35-40 kt. Environmental conditions support
the potential for a strong tornado during this timeframe. Whether
or not storms can realize this increasing low-level shear will
largely be a function of storm mode. Storms should eventually begin
to cluster and to grow upscale, with an increasing damaging wind
threat continuing downstream into Alabama and Georgia.

The front will continue slowly southward, and the very moist
environment could support additional warm sector storms throughout
much of the evening and overnight, supporting a continued risk for
all severe hazards, perhaps extending into northern GA and Upstate
SC late tonight.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070059
SWODY1
SPC AC 070057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight
across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast.
Supercells ongoing across central and southern parts of Mississippi
and Alabama into western Georgia will remain capable of all
severe-weather hazards for the next few hours. Upscale growth into
storm clusters and/or bowing line segments is expected overnight
with mainly a damaging wind and isolated tornado risk focused from
southern Mississippi into central Georgia.

...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast...

Early-evening surface analysis placed a convectively augmented cold
front from northern GA through central MS into the lower Rio Grande
Valley. The air mass ahead of the front is very moist, characterized
by dewpoints in the low/mid 70s from LA into MS and AL with MLCAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear resides across the warm
sector with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 60-70+ kt. This
parameter space has supported the development of multiple supercells
ahead of the front from southern MS into west-central AL, amidst
additional strong to severe storms. The southern MS supercells have
a history of producing tornadoes, and based on the 00z LIX sounding
and regional VWP data, are in a zone of enhanced low-level shear
with effective SRH of 300-350 m2/2. For additional information on
these storms, see MCDs 658 and 659.

Convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that the ongoing, semi-discrete storms will gradually grow upscale into clusters
and/or bowing line segments tonight along the southeastward-moving
cold front, with the most intense storms being focused along the
low-level jet axis from southern MS through central and southern AL
into central GA. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will become
the predominant hazards with that storm-mode transition.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...

Visible satellite indicates multiple attempts at storm initiation
recently along the high terrain of northwest Mexico, to the
southwest of Eagle Pass, TX. Convection-allowing model data suggest
that isolated, strong to severe storms will become increasingly
possible after about 05z in the same general vicinity with that
activity potentially crossing the Rio Grande into deep South TX.
Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will
conditionally favor supercell storm modes with a risk for large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. A level 1/Marginal Risk will be
maintained due to uncertainty in storm coverage.

..Mead.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070533
SWODY1
SPC AC 070532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible Thursday across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...

Separate vorticity maxima over the northern Plains and Raton Mesa
vicinity this evening are forecast to phase while progressing
through the southern periphery of broader-scale troughing present
across eastern Canada into the OH Valley and Northeast. That pattern
evolution will contribute to more substantial height falls from the mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians and Southeast on
Thursday. Strong, mid/upper-level flow will be maintained within the
base of the deepening trough from the lower-MS Valley into the
Southeast and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to initially stretch from
the Tidewater region to diffuse low pressure over the western
Carolinas into northeast GA, and then southwest to the central Gulf
Coast. That boundary will slowly advance southeast through the day,
with that feature along with any convective outflow boundaries
serving as the foci for strong to severe storm development.

...Carolinas to northeast Gulf Coast...

Convection-allowing model guidance suggests that a
west-to-east-oriented, pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) across southern
AL and the FL Panhandle into southern GA, rooted within a
warm-advection regime along a 40-50 kt low-level jet. The low-level
jet will aid in the northeastward advection of an increasingly moist
boundary layer from off the northeast Gulf with dewpoints increasing
into the low 70s within the inflow region of the early-day storms.
That moisture will largely contribute to MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg,
despite poor mid-level lapse rates.

The presence of the low-level jet will support initially strong
near-ground shear (i.e., effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) within the
instability axis preceding the storms. However, that feature is
forecast to gradually weaken while migrating east through the
morning, with seemingly the best tornado potential existing during
the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast
through the level 2/Slight Risk area.

Farther to the northeast across the NC/SC Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, poor lapse rates are expected to limit instability to
generally less than 500 j/kg. However, deep-layer wind fields will
be strong, suggesting the potential for locally strong wind gusts
with any deeper convective elements forming along and ahead of the
cold front from late morning into afternoon.


...Lower Rio Grande Valley/deep South Texas...

There is a model signal for at least isolated thunderstorm
development at the start of the forecast period (07/12z) with the
location of the storms varying from model to model. RAP-based
soundings suggest that the storms would be slightly elevated above a
stable, near-surface layer within a moderately unstable environment
with MUCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates aren't
expected to be particularly steep, the presence of 50-60+ kt
effective bulk shear magnitudes would support the potential for
supercell structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe-weather threat is expect
to remain confined to the morning hours.

..Mead/Lyons.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071251
SWODY1
SPC AC 071249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a
couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and
portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the
Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in
parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and
Deep South Texas.

...Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL...
Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from
far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are
occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a
surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf.
The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and
strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These
conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts
embedded within the predominately linear structures.

This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours
before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the
western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually
shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will
exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise,
damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress
southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL.

...Carolinas...
Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest,
with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally
less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to
shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind
fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and
associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in
occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold
front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind
fields across the region will support the potential for damaging
gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX...
A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where
steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a
stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This
elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining
with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear
from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures
capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms
farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment
remains supportive of large hail.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071622
SWODY1
SPC AC 071620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a brief
tornado are possible through the mid afternoon across the Florida
Panhandle into north Florida and far southern Georgia. Isolated
strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas,
as well as south-central Texas.

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.

...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/07/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071950
SWODY1
SPC AC 071948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA
INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across
portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the
Carolinas.

...20z Update...
MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL
Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection
migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream
18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates
and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this
reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed,
though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two
will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push
southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the
Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into
the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting
modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly
sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end
wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable
of damaging winds.

Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar
weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger
updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by
regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with
nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent
CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail
probabilities.

..Moore.. 05/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu May 07 2026/

...FL Panhandle into north FL and far southern GA...
A mid-level vorticity lobe over the Mid South is forecast to rapidly
move east and reach the NC Outer Banks by mid evening. Late morning satellite/radar imagery shows a broken band of strong to severe
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front and draped west-southwest to east-northeast. A moist and fully modified boundary layer extends
from the northeast Gulf into the FL Panhandle and Big Bend with
notably drier air over interior north FL. Convergence along the
front is forecast to weaken late today into tonight as a weak low
over the Carolinas shifts offshore. However, the prefrontal airmass
will remain moist, moderately unstable, and strongly sheared (50+ kt
effective shear) across the FL Panhandle vicinity through the mid
afternoon. Embedded cells within the bands will potentially be
capable of wind damage and perhaps a brief tornado before this
activity gradually weakens as it moves into a less-buoyant regime
farther east of north FL.

...Carolinas...
Some thinning of cloud cover and modest heating ahead of the cold
front will yield weak buoyancy prior to the front clearing the coast
later today. Weak low-level lapse rates will tend to limit the
overall severe risk (i.e., localized wind damage potential).
However, will maintain low wind probabilities this outlook update
due to the possibility for a couple of deeper updrafts to organize
within a region with strong deep-layer wind fields.

...Edwards Plateau into the Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day with a few
stronger updrafts intermittently developing over the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. Strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e.
effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) and 1000+ J/kg MUCAPE may
support the potential for an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail. Farther south and displaced away from the higher terrain,
very low thunderstorm coverage is expected despite a modifying and
more moist airmass. Have trimmed hail probabilities over this
region due to the lack of storm coverage in the latest model
guidance.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080036
SWODY1
SPC AC 080035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Thu May 07 2026

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...MT/WY...

Forcing for ascent attendant to a short-wave trough moving southeast
through the region has fostered widely scattered thunderstorms from
portions of northwest MT into central WY as of 00z. Moisture is
limited, but the presence of steep lapse rates (ref. 00z RIW
sounding) may be sufficient to support briefly strong storms capable
of gusty winds and/or small hail for the next couple of hours.

...Carolinas...

A small cluster of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across parts
of southern and central NC along a cold front settling south through
the area. Weakening, low-level lapse rates and resultant instability
should limit any severe-weather threat as the convection continues
east tonight.

...LA...

A few thunderstorms have recently developed in the vicinity of the
surface front in far southeast LA amidst a moist low-level air mass.
The 00z LIX sounding located to the immediate north of the front
sampled MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg for parcels lifted from around 1
KM. Moreover, deep-layer shear remains strong (effective bulk shear
of 60 kt), which would conditionally support some storm
organization. Current thinking is that nebulous forcing for ascent
and poor low/mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit updraft vigor
in an otherwise seemingly favorable, severe-storm environment. As
such, no severe-weather probabilities will be included for this
forecast.

...Southern AZ/NM into TX...

Isolated thunderstorms remain possible overnight from southern parts
of AZ and NM into western and southern TX, near and ahead of a
mid-level low drifting east across Sonora and Chihuahua, Mexico.

..Mead.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SWODY1
SPC AC 080542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis...

An 80-90 kt upper-level jet streak located across the northern
Rockies this evening will progress southeast into the central Plains
on Friday, contributing to amplification of a short-wave trough over
the same general area. That disturbance is then expected to weaken
Friday night as it moves into an increasingly confluent, mid-level
flow regime in place across the lower OH and TN Valleys. Elsewhere,
a mid/upper-level low over Sonora into Chihuahua, Mexico at the
start of the period is forecast to evolve into a weakening, open
wave while accelerating east through TX into the lower-MS Valley.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the northern-stream,
short-wave trough will progress south through the central into
southern High Plains on Friday with the boundary extending from the
southern TX Panhandle through n-central OK and southeast KS into
central MO by mid/late afternoon. A diffuse dryline or pre-frontal
trough will extend from southwest TX into the southeast TX
Panhandle, where it will link with the cold front.

Elsewhere, a cold front currently advancing south through the
Carolinas and GA is expected continue its slow, southward movement
into the northern FL Peninsula by afternoon. However, the western
extension of the front initially over the northwest Gulf is forecast
to weaken or lift north as a warm front into TX and LA on Friday,
allowing a moist, unstable air mass to those areas. The front is
expected to move onto the central and northeast Gulf Coast Friday
night as the low-level mass field responds to the short-wave trough
moving into the TN Valley.


...Oklahoma and north Texas into the Ozarks...

Modest, boundary-layer moistening is anticipated on Friday ahead of
the cold front with dewpoints increasing into the low/mid 50s. That
process will occur beneath the eastern extension of a steep,
mid-level lapse rate (EML) plume, supporting MLCAPE up to 1000-1500
J/kg from OK into southeast KS. Greater cloud cover and the
potential for early-day showers and storms are expected to limit the destabilization process farther northeast along the front into the
Ozarks.

Increased height falls/forcing for ascent attending the migratory
short-wave trough coupled with convergence along the cold front are
expected to foster scattered thunderstorm development by early
afternoon across portions of northern into central MO with
subsequent southwestward development along the boundary across
southeast KS into northern OK by mid/late afternoon.

Isolated occurrences of damaging wind and hail are possible along
and ahead of the MO segment of the front, where 40-45 kt of
effective bulk shear will coincide with MLCAPE of generally less
than 1000 J/kg. Across the level 2/Slight Risk area, comparatively
steeper lapse rates and resultant greater instability are expected
to offer a higher probability of supercell storm modes with the
initial hazard being large hail up to 2" in diameter. A deeper,
well-mixed boundary with sizable temperature-dewpoint spreads is
expected to limit tornado potential, especially given modest
low-level shear. The models do hint at some increase in low-level
shear toward 00z across northeast Ok into southeast KS, where some
tornado risk could evolve. Otherwise, there is a consistent signal
across a number of convection-allowing models that the initial
storms will grow upscale into a forward-propagating QLCS that tracks
south through central and southern OK into at least north TX Friday
evening into Friday night. A transition to more of a damaging wind
threat is expected with that storm-mode evolution.


...East Texas to north Florida...

Late-evening water vapor imagery indicates a vorticity lobe pivoting
through the southeastern periphery of the northern Mexico upper low.
That disturbance is expected to progress into south-central TX
Friday morning, with a downstream belt of low-level warm advection
fostering scattered storms from late morning through the afternoon
from the upper TX coast to north FL. Additional storms may also
develop from the vicinity of the front south along the east-coast
sea breeze in the northeast FL Peninsula.

Much of the thunderstorm activity from the upper TX coast into
southern parts of LA, MS, and AL is likely to be slightly elevated
to the north of the stalled front off the coast. RAP and NAM-based
forecast soundings indicate the presence of a moist environment with
MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, mid-level lapse rates are
expected to be weak, which may tend to limit updraft strength and
storm organization, despite the presence of 40-50 kt effective bulk
shear. As such, a level 1/Marginal Risk has been maintained with the expectation of isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
storms closer to the coast, which could become rooted in a moist and
modestly sheared boundary layer.

Farther to the east across north FL, afternoon storms are expected
to be surface-based in the vicinity of the front and east-coast sea
breeze. Model soundings depict a very moist environment with tall,
relatively skinny CAPE profiles with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The
presence of 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will be more than
sufficient to support some supercell structures capable of hail and
locally damaging wind gusts.

An additional round of mainly elevated thunderstorms appears
possible Friday night across portions of the lower-MS Valley with an
attendant risk for isolated, large hail and/or locally strong wind
gusts.

...South-central Texas...

Forcing for ascent associated with the lead vorticity maximum
mentioned in the previous section may contribute to the development
of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from the mid/lower Rio
Grande Valley into south-central TX from late morning into
afternoon. However, relatively strong capping evident in RAP-based
soundings cast uncertainty on eventual storm coverage, and as such,
a level 1/Marginal Risk will be maintained. The overall environment
will support supercell storm modes with an attendant risk for large
to very large hail and locally strong wind gusts, given storm
initiation and sustenance.

..Mead/Halbert.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081230
SWODY1
SPC AC 081228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas Friday afternoon into Friday night. More
sparse occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible
across the Ozarks, central and south TX, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over western KS
tracking southeastward. Full sunshine will lead to strong heating/destabilization ahead of the associated cold front over
eastern KS and much of OK. Dewpoints in the 50s, coupled with steep
low/mid level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and the development of scattered thunderstorms along
the front. These storms will track southeastward through the
evening across much of OK and into north TX. Forecast soundings
indicate favorable vertical shear profiles for supercell structures
capable of large hail.

Eventual upscale organization into linear/bowing structures will aid
in a risk of damaging winds as storms persist into the overnight
period across the ArkLaTex. While the overall severe threat should
diminish by this time, storms may occasionally result in damaging
wind gusts and hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. Gusty winds are the primary concern.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081627
SWODY1
SPC AC 081626

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.

...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/08/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 082000
SWODY1
SPC AC 081959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible from southeast Kansas through much of central and eastern
Oklahoma into north Texas this afternoon into tonight. More sparse
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the
Ozarks, central and south Texas, and the Gulf Coast states.

...20z Update...
The forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments
made based on recent convective trends and latest high-res guidance.


...Northern FL and southern AL/GA...
5% wind and hail probabilities were both expanded across the FL Panhandle/northern FL into adjacent portions of southern AL and GA
ahead of a persistent strong thunderstorms. This cell has shown
signs of period intensification to severe levels, and a downstream
18z JAX sounding sampled adequate buoyancy within a MUCAPE gradient
for storm maintenance, as well as very strong (57 knot) effective
bulk shear that may support additional periods of intensification
through late afternoon (see MCD #671 for additional details).

...Southern MS/AL...
Minor expansions of the 5% hail/wind contours were made across
portions of southern MS and southwest AL. Elevated convection
developing across northern LA will likely spread east/southeast
during the 09-12 UTC period, and may pose a risk of large hail and
perhaps damaging gusts. While clustered storm modes will likely
modulate the overall severe threat, sufficient MUCAPE and deep-layer
wind shear should be in place to support a few stronger cells.

...Oklahoma...
The early stages of convective initiation are well underway across north-central OK with a more expansive cumulus field noted across
northwest OK ahead of a cold front (see MCD # 670 for additional
short-term details). Recent high-res solutions (notably recent runs
of the HRRR) compare reasonably well these convective trends and to
a recent 19 UTC OUN RAOB. This lends reasonably high confidence in
the evolution of the severe hail and wind threat across central to north/northeast OK through mid-evening. Although the greatest severe
risk will likely materialize along and north of the I-44 corridor
over the next several hours, the somewhat marginal thermodynamic
environment and widely scattered convective signal in guidance
sufficiently limited confidence for higher risk (namely 30% hail) probabilities. However, slight expansions of the 5% and Intensity
Level 1 hail contours were made to account for recent observed
trends.

..Moore.. 05/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026/

...Central Plains...
Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows the northern
periphery of stratus and stratocumulus across southwest OK and a
more extensive stratus field over central and north TX. These
clouds generally coincide with surface observations and GPS PW of
richer moisture returning northward ahead of a mid-level shortwave
trough over western KS that is forecast to move southeastward into
southeast KS and OK by early evening. Strong heating ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front and 50s dewpoints will yield MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Model guidance continues to
indicate initial cellular activity evolving into a band of storms
along the front and pushing south-southeast this evening. Forecast
soundings will support supercells early before coalescing cold pools
promote upscale growth into a linear cluster. Supercell development
will subsequently favor anchoring updrafts on the southwest extent
of the developing convection. Severe gusts along with some
lingering hail risk will probably continue into the late evening and
overnight but diminish in overall magnitude/coverage of severe as
this activity moves into north TX and the Arklatex.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning
along/north of a surface boundary that extends from southeast TX
along the Gulf Coast into north FL. Storms are expected to increase
in coverage during the afternoon along the front, with a few strong
to severe cells expected. A mix of hail/wind will be possible with
the stronger thunderstorms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090054
SWODY1
SPC AC 090053

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and
eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large
hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas,
and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states.

...OK into north TX...

As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded
supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in
OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN
sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with
around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to
continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity
potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the
predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more
conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For
additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675.


...ArkLaTex to north Florida...

As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far
south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air
mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with
estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling
around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the
instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and
perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours.

Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine
River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per
regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will
increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the
ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough
passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving
into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday.
Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with
time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a
moistening boundary layer returning north through the region.
Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather
coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and
damaging winds appearing possible.


...South TX...

A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this
evening will continue east tonight with downstream height
falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX.
Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually
increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico,
and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms
could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT
sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL,
which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the
region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090541
SWODY1
SPC AC 090539

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...

A broad, cyclonic flow regime is forecast across much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies through the forecast period. A number of
embedded vorticity maxima moving through that large-scale pattern
will potentially aid in strong to severe storm development. The
first of which will track from the northern Rockies into the central
High Plains by Saturday evening. A stronger disturbance will be
attended by mid/upper-level jet streaks while progressing through
the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional, weaker disturbances
will traverse the Gulf Coast states and mid-Atlantic region.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes
disturbance will sweep east across that region during the day with
the trailing extension of the front advancing south into central
High Plains. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop along
the front in northwest KS Saturday afternoon with a pre-frontal
trough/dryline extending south from the low through the eastern
OK/TX Panhandles into west-central TX. Elsewhere, a front stretching
from south TX through the shelf waters of the northern Gulf into
north FL as of late evening will attempt to lift north as a warm
front. The advance of the boundary across the central and eastern
Gulf Coast may be impeded by early-day thunderstorms moving through
those areas.


...Western and Central Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...

The cold front that has pushed into the southern Plains this evening
is expected to wash out with initially modest moisture return
expected ahead of the trough/dryline with dewpoints increasing
through the 50s Saturday afternoon over the far eastern OK/TX
Panhandles into western OK. The moisture increase combined with
steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support an initially narrow
axis of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon.

While large-scale forcing for ascent will remain negligible through
the peak of the diurnal heating cycle, strong heating west of the
dryline and resultant deepening circulations along it are expected
to yield isolated to widely scattered, high-based storms by late
afternoon into early evening. 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear will
support supercell storm modes with large to very large hail being
the predominant hazard.

Considerable strengthening of the low-level jet is forecast across
western and central OK Saturday evening, which will enhance
low-level shear and the influx of greater, boundary-layer moisture
content. There is some model variability in the degree of evening
moistening that occurs, with the RAP remaining notably drier than
the NAM. Should the NAM scenario be closer to correct, tornado
potential would increase during the evening with any sustained
supercells from western into central OK. An 5% unconditional
probability and conditional-intensity group 1 have been added to
account for that possibility.


...Gulf Coast...

Clusters of thunderstorms or a quasi-linear MCS is expected to be
ongoing at 12z Saturday over the lower MS Valley, aided by a
low-level warm/moist advection regime. Forecast soundings suggest
that activity may be slightly elevated atop a shallow, near-surface
inversion and rooted within a moist environment with MUCAPE upwards
of 1500 J/kg. The 00z convection-allowing models suggest that
activity will continue south/southeast and potentially become more surface-based across the central and eastern Gulf Coast from late
morning into afternoon. Generally weak low/mid-level lapse rates are
expected to limit updraft intensity, despite the presence of 40-50
kt effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, the potential will exist for
marginally severe hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts,
especially if a cold pool can organize.


...Great Lakes...

The pre-frontal air mass is not expected to be overly moist on
Saturday with dewpoints largely in the upper 40s to low 50s.
However, steepening low/mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield
a modestly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of around 500
J/kg. The destabilization process will coincide with gradually
veering low-level winds, which will tend to limit the magnitude of
low-level and deep-layer shear.

Forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough mentioned
in the synopsis coupled with convergence/lift along the front are
expected to foster a broken band of thunderstorms initially across
eastern lower MI by early afternoon. Additional storms are expected
to form farther south along the front in northern OH with the
convective band rapidly moving east into portions of western NY and
northwest PA by late afternoon or early evening. Cold temperatures
aloft will favor isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail.
Locally strong wind gusts will also be possible during the afternoon
and early evening hours.


...Central Wyoming into southwest Nebraska and Northwest Kansas...

Increasing height falls/forcing for ascent preceding the short-wave
trough moving out of the northern Rockies will overspread a
steep-lapse-rate, but limited-moisture environment Saturday
afternoon, fostering the development of widely scattered, high-based
storms. The presence of 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will
support some storm organization with the potential for isolated
occurrences of large hail and locally damaging winds during the
afternoon and evening hours.


...Mid-Atlantic States...

A couple weak disturbances traversing the lower Great Lakes and
central Appalachians are expected to contribute an area of showers
across portions of PA and southern NY into New England Saturday
morning into early afternoon. Weak destabilization on the southern
fringe of that cloud canopy may support isolated thunderstorm
development during the afternoon from the DE River Valley into parts
of MD amidst a weakly unstable environment with MLCAPE of only a few
hundred J/kg. Both low-level and deep-layer shear will be relatively
strong, and the potential will exist for isolated severe weather, on
the condition that sufficient instability develops to sustain
surface-based thunderstorms.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091205
SWODY1
SPC AC 091203

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0703 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a few tornadoes are
possible in parts of western into central Oklahoma Saturday
afternoon and evening. Sparser large hail and damaging wind
occurrences are possible across the Gulf Coast states, the northern
and central High Plains, the Great Lakes, and possibly mid-Atlantic.

...Plains...
A flat upper ridge will be present today over the southwest states
and southern Rockies, while stronger flow aloft extends from the
northern Rockies into the mid MS Valley and eastern states. The
cold front that triggered convection over OK on Friday has stalled
over north TX and will slowly return northward through the day
today. Despite relatively weak low-level winds, dewpoints will
climb through the 50s across western OK leading to an axis of
moderate CAPE by late afternoon. Strong heating along/behind a
diffuse dryline will likely lead to isolated thunderstorm
development. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail.
Given the weak forcing aloft, storm coverage is likely to be rather
sparse through the evening. But those storms that can persist will
be in a progressively more moist and sheared environment that could
support the risk of a tornado or two.

Elsewhere farther north, steep low and mid-level lapse rates will
promote a risk of scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms
capable of gusty winds and hail from eastern WY/CO into western
NE/KS.

...Gulf Coast...
Clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over parts of
LA/MS/AL. This activity will persist through the day and spread
eastward. Limited heating and rather weak shear profiles will limit
the overall severe threat. But nevertheless a few storms may
occasionally become intense - capable of gusty/damaging winds and
hail.

...Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic...
A large upper trough will track from Ontario into Quebec today,
while the associated cold front sweeps southeastward across the
lower Great Lakes region. Sufficient instability is forecast to
support a line of thunderstorms forming over Lakes Erie/Ontario and
spreading into parts of OH/PA/NY this evening. Gusty winds and
small hail are expected, with a few reports of severe wind/hail
possible.

A corridor of moderate surface heating will extend from central VA
into NJ today, helping to destabilize this region and lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms. CAM solutions suggest the storms
that form will struggle to organize/intensify, but there will be
sufficient CAPE/shear to support some risk of a damaging wind gust
or two through early evening.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091632
SWODY1
SPC AC 091630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Gulf Coast states, central High Plains, Great Lakes,
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.

Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.

...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/09/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 092000
SWODY1
SPC AC 091958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST
TEXAS AND CENTRAL TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly
large to very large hail and locally damaging winds appear possible
for parts of western/central Oklahoma this afternoon through
tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur across
portions of the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast, central High Plains,
Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic.

...20z Update...
15% wind risk probabilities were introduced to the eastern shore of
Lake Erie downstream of a developing squall line. Although buoyancy
across this region remains fairly weak (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE per
recent mesoanalysis estimates), boundary-layer mixing is noted along
the eastern shore that may facilitate downward momentum transfer as
the squall line moves onshore. Additionally, latest time-lagged
HRRR/RRFS ensembles have shown a consistent signal for 45-60 mph
gusts associated with the line during the late afternoon/evening
hours, hinting that a localized corridor of higher wind potential
may materialize.

...Northern Gulf Coast/Northern Florida...
Severe probabilities along the northern Gulf Coast and across
northern Florida have been reduced based on recent convective
trends. Latest radar/satellite imagery depicts a frontal boundary
pushing south into the northern Gulf with limited MUCAPE noted in
recent mesoanalyses north of the boundary. Across northern FL,
convection developing along the frontal zone has struggled to
maintain intensity - likely owing to marginal forcing for ascent and
poor mid-level lapse rates sampled by a recent 18 UTC JAX sounding.
Severe wind probabilities have largely been adjusted across
northeastern FL to reflect where stronger heating/better buoyancy
will likely support more robust updrafts through late afternoon.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle...
Severe hail/wind probabilities have been adjusted west from western
OK into the eastern TX Panhandle where dewpoints are climbing into
the low/mid 50s and shallow cumulus is beginning to develop along
the dryline. These trends hint that the severe risk may emerge
slightly further west than depicted by previous forecasts and
guidance.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 684, 685, and 686 for additional details.

..Moore.. 05/09/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat May 09 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains...
High-based convection is forecast to develop this afternoon across
southeast WY and vicinity as a mid-level shortwave trough progresses southeastward across the northern/central High Plains. While
low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited, cool
temperatures aloft and a well-mixed boundary layer will support a
risk for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail with the
more robust convection. This activity should spread southeastward
across parts of the central High Plains through the afternoon and
evening, while continuing to pose an isolated severe threat.

Low-level moisture is somewhat greater across the southern High
Plains, but still quite shallow per 12Z observed soundings from
OUN/FWD. While large-scale ascent will remain weaker with southward
extent through the day across this region, a surface dryline will
extend across the eastern TX Panhandle vicinity by peak afternoon
heating. Most guidance continues to suggest an uncapped and
moderately unstable airmass will exist along/east of this dryline
across western OK. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may
initiate by late afternoon/early evening. If this occurs, then a few
supercells capable of producing mainly large to very large hail
appear possible. The well-mixed boundary layer and shallow low-level
moisture suggest a low risk for a tornado or two through early
evening, before low-level shear gradually increases through late
evening. There is also a signal for convection to form/spread
southeastward from KS/northern OK into central OK late tonight/early
Sunday morning. If this scenario occurs, then a severe wind threat
may exist with any sustained clusters given a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment.

...Coastal Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A weak mid-level trough over central/east TX late this morning will
continue to move eastward into the western Gulf through this
evening. Stronger convection across deep south TX has recently moved
offshore, but additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon
across parts of coastal/southeast TX into LA in close proximity to
the mid-level trough. Cool temperatures aloft atop a moist low-level
airmass will support moderate to locally strong instability. This
coupled with sufficient deep-layer shear may foster modest updraft
organization and an isolated risk for large hail and damaging winds
with the stronger cores that form. Across the central Gulf Coast
states, widespread precipitation and ongoing convection has
reinforced the surface front near the coast. Any appreciable risk
for occasional damaging winds should remain along/south of this
convectively reinforced boundary through the afternoon. Therefore,
the Marginal Risk has been adjusted southward with this update.

...Great Lakes...
Beneath upper troughing centered over Ontario, a surface cold front
will advance east-southeastward across the Great Lakes through the
period. Only modest low-level moisture (generally low to mid 50s
surface dewpoints) will be in place ahead of this front from
southeast Lower MI into the lower Great Lakes. Still, strong
mid-level flow may be mixed towards the surface as low-level lapse
rates continue to steepen this afternoon. Accordingly, thunderstorms
that develop along/ahead of the cold front should pose a threat for
at least isolated damaging winds, and perhaps some hail with any
marginal supercell structures. The overall thermodynamic environment
appears too limited to justify greater severe wind probabilities at
this time.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Given ongoing cloud cover and precipitation, confidence remains
fairly low that sufficient instability to support sustained
surface-based convection will exist this afternoon across the
eastern Mid-Atlantic. Still, a low chance for a stronger
thunderstorm or two may focus across parts of NJ and vicinity, where
weak instability should overlap with modest deep-layer shear.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100057
SWODY1
SPC AC 100055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
expected to continue tonight across western, central, and southern
Oklahoma and north Texas. Isolated occurrences of wind and/or hail
are possible through the remainder of the evening over the central
High Plains, Texas Coast, and lower Great Lakes.

...Oklahoma and North Texas...

As of 00:30z, a cluster of supercells with a history of large hail
production is present along and just to the south of I-40 in western
OK with additional storms intensifying ahead of a cold front
northwest of Woodward. The storms are occurring within a narrow axis
of modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, which coincides
with effective bulk shear magnitudes of 45-50 kt.
A comparably more moist boundary layer resides to the south of the
current convection across southern OK into north TX with dewpoints
in the upper 50s to around 60, supporting MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg.

Recent, convection-allowing model guidance is suggestive that a
consolidation of the separate convective regimes will occur later
this evening with an increasing damaging wind threat spreading
southeast through central and southern OK and north TX. Another
possible scenario is for the I-40 supercell complex to gradually
evolve into a forward-propagating system with an attendant damaging
wind and hail threat confined to southern OK and potentially north
TX. Either of these scenarios appear plausible as a nocturnally
strengthening low-level jet enhances inflow of the more
moist/unstable air mass into the growing convective system. In
either scenario, it appears the damaging wind threat will develop to
the east of the current 15% unconditional probability. As such, that
line (delineating the level 2/Slight Risk) has been extended into
portions of southeast OK, and farther east in north TX.


...Western New York into Northeast Ohio...

As of 00z, a band of thunderstorms is ongoing from portions of
western NY through northwest PA into eastern OH, ahead of a vigorous
short-wave trough moving through the Great Lakes region. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates have contributed to sufficient instability
to sustain the ongoing storms with a number of 40-50+ mph wind gusts
reported earlier in the Cleveland area. Locally strong to marginally
severe wind gusts will remain possible for the next hour or two
before low-level lapse rates weaken with the cooling of the boundary
layer.


...Central High Plains...

A small cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this evening in
northeast CO with a more isolated storm in northwest KS, near
Goodland. Forcing for ascent associated with a vigorous short-wave
trough moving through WY coupled with a steep, low/mid-level lapse
rate environment are supporting that convective development amidst a
kinematic environment featuring 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear.
The potential for isolated occurrences of large hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts are expected to continue through the remainder
of the evening before boundary-layer cooling and resultant
convective inhibition accrual result in a decreasing severe-weather
threat.


...Texas Coast to Lower Sabine River Valley...

Isolated strong to severe storms this evening within a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with estimated MLCAPE up to 2000-2500
J/kg. Vertical shear isn't particularly strong, nor is large-scale
forcing for ascent. As such, isolated large hail and/or strong wind
gusts will remain possible for the next couple of hours before
storms weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

..Mead.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100534
SWODY1
SPC AC 100533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible Sunday afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over James Bay will progress
northeast through the forecast period, with a belt of strong,
cyclonic flow persisting across the Great Lakes and New England. On
the periphery of the broader-scale troughing, late evening water
vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough over WY with a more subtle
disturbance noted near the Four Corners region. Those two features
are expected to progress into the southern Plains by Sunday
afternoon, contributing to modest, mid-level height falls across the
region.

At the surface, a cold front initially from the lower Great Lakes
southwest through the OH Valley and Ozark Plateau into the southern
High Plains at 12z Sunday will advance east/southeast during the
day. A few strong storms capable of small hail and gusty winds may
occur along and ahead of that boundary Sunday afternoon over
northern New England and the central Appalachians into mid-Atlantic.
Greater severe-storm potential is expected along the cold front and
any preceding convective outflow boundaries from the southern Plains
into lower MS Valley Sunday afternoon and evening.


...Southern Plains into Lower MS Valley...

Clusters of thunderstorms (some of which could be strong to severe)
are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning from the ArkLaTex into OK,
with outflow associated with that activity preceding the cold front
across north Texas. By early to mid afternoon, the composite
boundary is expected to extend from the TX South Plains across north
Texas through the ArkLaTex into central or eastern AR. A dryline is
expected to stretch south from the front through the eastern Permian
Basin into the Edwards Plateau region.

A steep, mid-level lapse rate plume will overlie the warm sector
characterized by increasing boundary-layer moisture content with
eastward extent across TX, with afternoon MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg.
Slightly less instability (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) is forecast
from AR and LA into MS as that region will reside east of the EML
plume.

The combination of daytime heating and increasing forcing for ascent
(see synopsis) are expected to support thunderstorm development by
mid afternoon from the vicinity of the surface triple point over
west-central TX, east along the composite boundary. Vertical shear
will be maximized along the west-to-east-oriented front with
decreasing bulk shear magnitudes with southward extent across the
warm sector. As such, supercell storm modes and an associated large
to very large hail (2+" in diameter) threat are most probable in the
vicinity of the front within the first couple of hours after storm
initiation.

By late afternoon into Sunday evening, there is a consistent signal
across convection-allowing model guidance for upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS that accelerates southeast through central
TX before reaching the TX Coast and deep South TX early Monday
morning. The degree of parcel buoyancy and presence of a dry,
mid-level air mass will support the potential for organized cold
pool development with corridors of damaging winds in excess of 75
mph appearing possible from late afternoon through evening. The
damaging wind threat is expected to become more isolated with time
Sunday night into early Monday as the boundary layer gradually
stabilizes. Generally weak low-level shear (effective SRH < 150
m2/s2) and 0-3-km bulk-shear magnitudes <25-30 kt are expected to
limit tornado/meso-vortex potential with the QLCS.

Farther to the east across AR and LA into MS, convective evolution
and associated severe-weather potential are a bit more uncertain.
Some model guidance suggests that morning storms across portions of
AR could intensify by afternoon while spreading east/southeast into
parts of northwest MS and northern LA. Additional strong to severe
storms will also be possible Sunday afternoon and evening along the
front moving through the area. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the
primary severe hazard, though isolated occurrences of severe hail
will also be possible.


...Central NM into far West Texas...

Height falls aloft coupled with enhanced orographic ascent with the cold-frontal surge are expected to contribute to isolated to widely
scattered storm development Sunday afternoon and evening. Steep,
low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE of around 500
J/kg amidst 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear may favor a few strong
to severe storms capable of hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.


...FL Peninsula...

Isolated to widely scattered, diurnally enhanced thunderstorms
appear possible along the front stalled across the northern
Peninsula, and south along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. The
presence of a moist environment with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500 J/kg
will support water-loaded downdrafts capable of locally damaging
wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening hours.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101157
SWODY1
SPC AC 101156

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind
gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this
afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More
sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the
Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas.

...TX...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough
digging southeastward across CO. This feature will emerge into the
Plains this morning and track into OK/TX by this afternoon. Large
scale ascent ahead of this trough has led to multiple clusters of
thunderstorms overnight across OK and north TX, reinforcing
cooler/stable air down into north-central TX. While some recovery
of the air mass is expected, the primary surface boundary will
likely extend across north TX by early afternoon. Strong heating to
its south, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid
level lapse rates will yield strongly unstable CAPE (MLCAPE ~2500
J/kg) from the Abilene area south/eastward.

Thunderstorm development will occur first along/north of the primary
boundary and the organizing surface low over west TX. Initial
storms will likely be supercells capable of very large hail and a
few damaging wind gusts. Model solutions are consistent in
developing a large bowing cluster of storms that tracks across
north-central TX through the evening. These storms will pose a risk
of more widespread damaging wind and hail potential across the ENH
risk area. Activity is expected to weaken overnight as it
approaches the TX middle Gulf Coast.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101638

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

..Gleason/Chalmers.. 05/10/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102000
SWODY1
SPC AC 101958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening
across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes
also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a
front.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains largely on track with only minor
adjustments required based on recent observed trends. The
convectively reinforced cold front across northwest TX continues to
surge south faster than anticipated by morning guidance.
Nonetheless, elevated supercell development is ongoing immediately
north of the boundary where MUCAPE was recently analyzed near 2000
J/kg. Consequently, severe hail probabilities (and the ENH
categorical bounds) have largely been left in place with only a
southward reduction in the wind and tornado probabilities based on
the expected 20 UTC frontal position.

Across central to southern TX, recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged
ensembles depict the potential for 75+ mph winds across the
Austin/San Antonio region and southward into south TX late tonight.
This signal appears reasonable given the expected evolution of the
eventual MCS and downstream environment (both sampled by recent
ACARS soundings and forecast by short-range guidance). The 15% wind
and Intensity Level 1 contours have been expanded south to address
this potential.

Across northeast TX, the remnants of an early-morning MCS have
transitioned into a single organized supercell that has begun
weakening over the past 20-30 minutes. However, attempts at new
convective development are noted along the outflow boundary to the
south of the decaying supercell. With temperatures in the mid 80s
along/south of the boundary, lingering inhibition should be
minimized and may allow for additional strong/severe thunderstorms
through early evening with an attendant threat for severe hail/wind.

Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous
discussion below and MCDs 693, 694, and 695 for additional
short-term details.

..Moore.. 05/10/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026/

...Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms
along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow
boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a
favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds
remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central
into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along
with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple
of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop.

Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a
dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front
arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into
southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for
additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The
observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well,
with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level
airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg.

There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward
extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from
earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery
extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this
boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to
its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in
north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong
instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs
across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability
focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline.

Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced
along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day.
Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and
related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of
the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells
with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central
into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches)
may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows
upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado
potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of
west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will
be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds.

Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much
of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample
instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these
gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging
wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing
cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual
weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning,
although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period.

Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward
extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover
and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and
the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon.
Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of
the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been
maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest
short-term guidance.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...
Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should
support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across
central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening.
Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak
instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt
of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the
strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds.

...Florida...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and
southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a
moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should
support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally
damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster
sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more
robust cores.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based
convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon
and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary
layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in
a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110031
SWODY1
SPC AC 110030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging
wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this evening across parts
of central Texas.

...Central Texas to the Texas Coast and deep South Texas...

As of 00:15z, volumetric radar data indicated an HP supercell
gradually evolving into a larger-scale bowing complex over
McCulloch, San Saba, and Mason counties with a separate supercell
complex over Coryell county, which recently produced hail up to four
inches in diameter. Surface observations and objective analysis
indicate the presence of a warm and moist inflow air mass with
estimated MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. While deep-layer shear isn't
particularly strong, the observed supercell structures indicate
sufficient shear exists to support organized storm modes given the
degree of instability.

Current thinking is that the separate thunderstorm regimes mentioned
above will eventually merge along a common cold pool, with a
broader-scale MCS accelerating south-southeast through the remainder
of central TX this evening. Corridors of damaging winds in excess of
75 mph appear likely within the core of the bowing complex. The very
large hail (> 2") threat is expected to persist for the next hour or
two with the dominant supercell structures. Hail sizes should
diminish with time as convection transitions to more of an outflow
dominant system.

The wind damage threat is expected to become more isolated late
tonight as the convective system approaches the TX Coast and deep
South Texas owing to gradual cooling and stabilization of the
boundary layer.

..Mead.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110543
SWODY1
SPC AC 110542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...

Within the base of broader-scale troughing over eastern North
America, a lead short-wave trough will progress from the TN Valley
through the Carolinas on Monday, in tandem with a mid-level jet
streak. Farther to the southwest, a vorticity maximum over western
TX as of late evening is expected to progress east through the
Sabine River Valley to along the central Gulf Coast Monday afternoon
into Monday night. Elsewhere, a strong short-wave trough and
attending mid/upper-level wind maxima will crest the western U.S.
ridge axis along the International Border before turning more
southeast into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

At the surface, a cold front will settle south through the lower MS
Valley and Southeast with low pressure developing along the boundary
over coastal SC or far southeast NC by early afternoon. Elsewhere,
an area of low pressure will track east-southeast through southern
parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba with an associated cold front
sweeping southeast through the northern High Plains. A trough will
precede the cold front with that feature shifting east into the
central Dakotas by early evening.


...Coastal Carolinas into the eastern Florida Peninsula...

Latest model guidance is suggestive that surface-based thunderstorm
development may occur as early a mid to late morning along or ahead
of the cold front from the SC piedmont into the coastal plain as
forcing for ascent increases downstream from the approaching
short-wave trough. Subsequent storm development is also expected
farther northeast along the front into southeast NC by late morning
into early afternoon.

Even with the relatively early storm development, forecast soundings
indicate the presence of a moderately unstable warm sector with
MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg. Vertical shear will steadily increase
with the arrival mid-level jet streak, such that some transient
supercell structures may evolve, especially in the vicinity of the
weak surface low. The strongest storms will be capable of isolated
occurrences of damaging winds and marginally severe hail into mid
afternoon before moving offshore. Generally weak low-level shear
should limit tornado potential.

Additional strong to marginally severe storms appear possible along
the cold front, as well as the Atlantic Coast sea breeze from
southeast GA southward into the Fl Peninsula. The combination of a
moist and moderately unstable air mass (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg)
with 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some
storm organization with an attendant risk for damaging, wet
microbursts and perhaps some marginally severe hail.


...Central Gulf Coast...

Increased forcing for ascent associated with the short-wave trough
moving into the Sabine River Valley is expected to contribute to an
increase thunderstorm development Monday afternoon across southern
parts of LA and MS, potentially into southwest AL. A moist and
moderately unstable air mass will coincide with 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear, with the 00z convection-allowing models
suggesting some potential for cold pool organization along the
coast. The primary hazard is expected to be locally damaging outflow
winds.


...Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley...

A plume of steep, mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) will
overspread the northern Plains Monday, downstream from the
approaching short-wave trough. The boundary-layer ahead of the
pre-frontal trough will remain rather dry with dewpoints in the 30s
to perhaps low/mid 40s, which in turn will limit MLCAPE to 200-300
J/kg. Strong, diurnal heating in the vicinity of the surface trough
coupled with increasing height falls aloft may be sufficient to
support isolated, high-based thunderstorms by late afternoon into
early evening with the potential for locally strong wind gusts.
Thunderstorms may tend to increase in areal coverage later Monday
evening into Monday night across the upper MS Valley, aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. By that time, the
convection is likely to be elevated and capable of small hail.

No wind/hail probabilities will be assigned to the area at this
time. However, model trends will be monitored for greater air mass destabilization, which could warrant 5% probabilities and a level
1/Marginal Risk.

..Mead/Weinman.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111215
SWODY1
SPC AC 111213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS ITO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida
Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western
ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are
embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH
Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively
generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes
the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through
the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and
adjacent southern Saskatchewan.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border
vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the
Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep
South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern
Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from
this low across eastern into south-central MT.

...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC...
Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently
ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity.
A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms
over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear
could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late
this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC.
Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few
more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD...
Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late
this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will
develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential
for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak
and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft
capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation
is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning
producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with
any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf
mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected
to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger
shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of
the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving
frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant
to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely.
Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer
shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary
risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts
capable of wind damage are possible as well.

..Mosier/Chalmers.. 05/11/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111948
SWODY1
SPC AC 111946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...AND
THE CAROLINA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible this afternoon along the Carolina and Florida Atlantic
coasts as well as portions of the lower Mississippi Valley.

...20z Update...
The previous outlook largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments made. Risk probabilities were removed across eastern GA
where latest satellite imagery shows limited vertical development
within a broad cumulus field, likely owing to poor ascent given very
weak low-level convergence along a diffuse frontal zone. Latest
HRRR/RRFS guidance depicts negligible convective signals across this
region through tonight, suggesting the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low. Severe wind probabilities were similarly
trimmed across portions of southern LA where cold outflow associated
with a residual MCV over the northern Gulf is spreading northward.
Ahead of this boundary, temperatures warming into the low 80s within
a moist air mass may still support convection sufficiently deep for
a localized downburst concern (see MCD #706). Elsewhere, the
previous forecast (below) remains on track.

..Moore.. 05/11/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026/

...Synopsis...
Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western
ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are
embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH
Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively
generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes
the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through
the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and
adjacent southern Saskatchewan.

Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border
vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the
Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep
South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern
Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from
this low across eastern into south-central MT.

...Eastern SC/Far Southern NC...
Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently
ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity.
A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms
over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear
could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts.
Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late
this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC.
Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few
more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or
damaging gusts.

...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical
shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD...
Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late
this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level
temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will
develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential
for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak
and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft
capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation
is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning
producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with
any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf
mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected
to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger
shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of
the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving
frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant
to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely.
Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer
shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary
risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1
Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts
capable of wind damage are possible as well.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120052
SWODY1
SPC AC 120050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge over the
West, a midlevel trough will continue eastward from the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley tonight. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are evolving
eastward across northern ND -- in the vicinity of an eastward-moving
surface trough/front. Despite limited buoyancy, a deeply mixed
boundary layer could favor a couple strong wind gusts before the
boundary layer nocturnally cools/stabilizes. See MCD #707 for more
details. Farther east, a strong low-level jet and related warm
advection preceding the midlevel trough will promote isolated
elevated thunderstorms across the upper MS Valley into the upper
Midwest overnight. Weak instability will preclude severe storms.

...Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...
Isolated thunderstorms will spread/develop eastward along an
west/east-oriented diffuse cold front extending from the central
Gulf Coast into northern FL tonight. This activity will remain north
of the moderately unstable air mass over the Gulf. Across parts of
the eastern and southern FL Peninsula, a few thunderstorms will
continue through around 03Z along lingering outflow boundaries.
While locally strong gusts and small hail are possible, the overall
severe threat appears low.

..Weinman/Worster.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120552
SWODY1
SPC AC 120551

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially parts of the
Great Lakes to Lower Missouri Valley and south-central Plains late
this afternoon and early evening.

...Florida Peninsula...
A front will settle southward today in advance of a low-latitude
shortwave trough crossing the northeast Gulf. A moist and
potentially unstable environment will exist during the afternoon,
especially across the central Peninsula where MLCAPE could exceed
1500 J/kg, although early day clouds and convection near/south of
the front leads to some uncertainty regarding destabilization
details. Regardless, storms should steadily increase in coverage and
intensity through late morning into the afternoon, initially across
the north-central Peninsula, maximizing toward the east coast,
although additional storms may move inland from the Gulf.
Strengthening mid/high-level winds will support upwards of 30-40 kt
effective shear and fairly long/semi-straight hodographs, which
could yield some transient supercell structures pending sufficient destabilization. Damaging winds and hail will be possible at least
on an isolated basis, and a tornado could occur as well,
particularly near the effective front. A greater confidence in
destabilization and the possibility of more sustained
storms/supercells could warrant a Slight Risk upgrade.

...Wisconsin/Lake Michigan to south-central Plains...
A shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will dig southeastward
and amplify toward the Upper Great Lakes through this evening, with
a cold front moving southeastward across these regions. Low-level
moisture will be limited near/ahead of the front, but advection may
be sufficient to counteract mixing to allow surface dewpoints to
reach the 50s F by late afternoon/early evening.

In tandem with the strongest forcing for ascent, and in vicinity of
the surface low/front, isolated to widely scattered development is
initially expected, and most probable, late in the afternoon/early
evening across eastern Wisconsin, with additional storms possible
farther southwest near the front across Illinois/Missouri and
potentially into southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma. Where storms develop/sustain, steep lapse rates and strong west-northwesterly
flow aloft could yield some severe storms capable of hail/damaging
wind.

...Western Oregon/southern Washington...
A few stronger storms with gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail could
develop late in the afternoon and evening regionally in advance an
upper-level trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.
Strengthening deep-layer winds and steepening lapse rates could
plausibly yield some stronger storms, although the potential for sustained/organized severe storms is currently expected to remain
low.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 05/12/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121200
SWODY1
SPC AC 121159

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early
evening.

...KS to WI...
A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.

...FL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026

$$

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